Saturday night's main event at UFC 104 could turn out to be a numbers game.
Try these on for size:
15 wins, 0 losses
7-0 in the UFC
65 per cent striking accuracy
These are the figures that describe the UFC's undisputed light-heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida. And he defends his recently acquired belt for the first time against Mauricio (Shogun) Rua.
The Brazilian is one of the most impressive fighters in the world right now. While his elusive style has led to some relatively boring fights, especially early in his career, if the game is about winning, one certainly has to give him respect. The numbers tell the story.
Consider Machida's past two fights. At UFC 94 in January, he took on the deadly and then-undefeated Thiago Silva. Machida dominated for most of the first round before knocking out Silva with a brutal right literally at the bell.
In the course of those five minutes, Machida managed a 58 per cent hit percentage on the strikes he threw, compared to just 22 per cent for Silva, according to FightMetric.com, which provides detailed statistical reports for complete fights. The website gauged Machida's overall performance rating for that Super Bowl weekend tilt in Las Vegas to be 94 (out of 100). Silva's was 4.
A few months later, in Machida's most recent, championship-winning fight against Rashad Evans, the numbers were eerily similar, even though Evans lasted half a round longer. Machida's striking accuracy was determined to be 56 per cent for a 92 performance rating in their UFC 98 bout in May. On the other hand, Evans earned a rating of 10, while landing only 14 per cent of his strikes before he was knocked out just shy of the four-minute mark in the second frame.
As efficient as Machida's offensive numbers appear, it's his ability to avoid damage that might be even more impressive. Machida is statistically the least-hit fighter in MMA history. In fact, Dana White was quoted as saying he gets hit just once every two and a half rounds. That means, on average, he'll circle the Octagon for 12 minutes and 30 seconds between getting hit. And note in that time, he's not staying back. He's landing enough shots of his own to easily earn decisions, if not put his opponents on the mat
If you put a lot of stock into stats, Saturday's matchup against Shogun could be his toughest to date. Looking at the fight reports for the fellow Brazilian's past two fights, it indicates a fighter with comparable striking efficiency.
Against Chuck Liddell at UFC 97 in April, Rua produced an even better hit percentage than Machida did in his past two. He landed a full two-thirds of his strikes, while his overall performance was calculated to be 92. Liddell, who was sent packing via strikes at the 4:28 mark of the first round at the Bell Centre in Montreal, connected on 23 per cent of his shots and garnered a slightly more respectable 33 rating.
The measures for Rua's prior fight, a three-round battle against Hall of Famer Mark Coleman at UFC 93 in January, came out thus: 56 per cent / 80 rating for Rua versus 39 per cent / 41 rating for Coleman.
What does all this really mean? Well, the overall numbers reflect slightly better on Machida, not to mention Evans and Silva should be considered tougher competition than Liddell and Coleman, at least at the points of their careers when the respective fights took place. So you would have to give the statistical edge to Machida entering their clash Saturday.
But of course, that`s all on paper. Once they enter the Octagon, the real games begin. Will Machida be able to continue his amazing elusiveness against a guy in Rua whose striking accuracy has been getting consistently better as he's gotten progressively more comfortable fighting in the Octagon? Or will Shogun be able to execute a game plan that has led him to a career record of 18-3 with 15 knockouts -- not bad numbers either, eh? -- and counter whatever Machida sends his way?
I'm certainly intrigued to see what happens in the fight; but of course, I love numbers.
I just hope all this math means we can count on a fantastic fight, and not simply a text book-like affair.
BETTING NUMBERS: Another figure worth mentioning is 4-1, as in, the odds of Machida hanging on to the belt. I'd take the favourite in this one.
THE UFC VIOLENT? D'OH! Apparently, White wasn't happy with the way the UFC was portrayed on a recent episode of The Simpsons. I say to Dana, come off it. The show makes fun of everything -- it wouldn't be The Simpsons otherwise. You should instead feel honoured they decided to make you the target of their latest parody.
In fact, there was actually a line that showed they were just doing their usual tongue-in-cheek, a line that also promoted the benefits of MMA. "(By agreeing to this fight), I got into great shape and met some fun people," Marge said. Look on the positives!
The episode's initial broadcast was watched by 7.5 million viewers aged 18-49 (the UFC's demographic), meaning there were likely lots of people who got some form of MMA exposure for the first time. And that has to be a good thing.
