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Showdown's predictions
Joe Ferraro | March 27, 2010
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Could Dan Hardy pull off the big upset? Showdown thinks it's possible.After much discussion and conversation with some MMA notables, here are my quick picks for UFC 111.
It's been quite the whirlwind this week, covering the UFC from Toronto to Newark, N.J., but it's safe to say, Saturday night's UFC 111 card at the Prudential Center will be the icing on the cake.
The week started with a great UFC PR event at the Eaton Centre in Toronto, which, from a media perspective, was a dominating first-round knockout. If my memory serves me correct, ALL of the Canadian mainstream media were there, from television, to print, to radio. When UFC president Dana White mentions that the Canadian fans and media both treat MMA the way it should be treated (i.e. as a legitimate sport), it's difficult to disagree with him.
The same cannot be said South of the Border -- well at least, as of yet.
During Wednesday's pre-fight press conference at Radio City Music Hall, I was personally disappointed with the fan turnout, as well as the lack of really big-name media. Many predicted that the Hall would have been jammed with rabid UFC fans, but that was not the case. Mind you, those who did show up were treated to an opportunity of a lifetime. Autographs, pictures, etc, all after an entertaining Q&A session with White, as well as Georges St-Pierre, Dan Hardy and Frank Mir.
As for the media, it appeared as if it was the same bunch as usual, with a few newer faces.
On Thursday, at the media workouts, there were a few more "new" media that showed up, which was encouraging, but what stuck out to us was that it appeared as if there were only two mainstream television crews there (Sportsnet being one) to cover the festivities. I may be incorrect, but all of us were wondering if finally we would see some of the bigger name American stations there. If they were there, great -- I just do not recall recognizing any of them at all.
Friday at the weigh-ins, the media numbers appeared to grow, but like the day prior, not sure if there were any big names there.
While the UFC staff will never show it, one would have to believe that internally they must be shaking their head and wondering why these big-name mainstream stations are still not covering the sport in the Tri-State area; but as someone told me earlier in the week, there is a belief that on Saturday night, all the big boys will show up... and I hope and trust that is the case.
The night before the event, we were invited to a gathering which was attended by the "who's who" of the MMA industry. It was an exclusive yet surprisingly intimate event, where at any one point in time, MMA royalty were within arms reach of a conversation, or in the case of Dana White, a pot shot or two.
Attendees included White, Chuck Liddell, Jon Jones, Thiago Alves (who was in great spirits after an irregularity in his brain was found in a medical test on Thursday), Stephan Bonnar, Matt Serra, Pete Sell, Tom Lawlor, Seth Petruzelli, David Loiseau as well as a bevy of managers and industry professionals.
One of the highlights of the evening was how many of the aforementioned actually complimented my shoes, and went against the grain, telling me that Dana was wrong on one of his recent video blogs, where he takes a shot at my selection of footwear stylings (see 5:43 of the video).
We all discussed a bunch of topics, while analyzing the various bouts of UFC 111. After much discussion and conversation, here are my quick picks:
Main Card
Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy
On paper, GSP is heavily favoured, but do not discount Hardy's counter left hook, right cross and sheer confidence. He hasn't lost in a long time and is definitely not intimidated by St-Pierre. With that being said, I believe GSP is so pumped for this fight, he will be looking to make an example of Hardy.
Prediction: GSP via TKO, Round Two
Interim Heavyweight Championship bout: Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin>
Standing up, Mir is the more technical striker, while Carwin packs more power in his punches. On the ground, Mir is the better submission fighter, but Carwin is one ground and pound flurry away from having his hand raised in victory.
Prediction: Carwin via TKO, Round Two
Lightweight bout: Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes
Camoes tenacity will surprise everyone in this fight, and will likely take Pellegrino the distance.
Prediction: Camoes by split decision
Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders
Expect a war in the standup, but once this fight hits the mat, Fitch will control Saunders from beginning to end.
Prediction: Fitch by unanimous judges decision
Lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek
Hometown hero Jim Miller is going to push Canadian Mark Bocek to the limit. If the American can keep his limbs in check, he should be able to survive a three-round war. As for Bocek, I believe he will be in defence mode all fight and will have a very difficult time with the bundle of energy that is Jim Miller.
Prediction: Miller by unanimous judges decision
Preliminary Card
Catchweight (177 pounds) bout: Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham
Look for Markham to overwhelm Diaz early, but for Nate to reverse his fortunes late in the bout.
Prediction: Nate Diaz by triangle choke, Round Three
Welterweight bout: Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown
Do not blink or turn your head away from this bout -- it will be an incredible MMA battle; one that will be rugged and disturbing to look at. Neither fighter will be the same after this fight.
Prediction: Brown by TKO, Round Three
Light Heavyweight bout: Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman
It's Wallace's takedown and ground and pound skills vs. Hamman's reach and knockout power. Unless Hamman's footwork can save him, he may be in big trouble in this fight.
Prediction: Wallace by TKO, Round Two
Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal
Palahares is one of the most underrated middleweights in the game. If he has addressed his cardio and stamina issues, he will run through Drwal and prove he is a serious contender. If he gasses late in round one or even midway through round two, Tomasz will likely pull off the combat.
Prediction: Palhares by submission, round one
Welterweight bout: Matthew Riddle vs. Greg Soto
Soto is a local fighter with evolving MMA skills, who is a BJJ brown belt under Kurt Pellegrino. Riddle is a four-time UFC veteran while Soto is making his octagon debut -- and we've all heard about the UFC rookie jinx. I believe that will play a huge part here.
Prediction: Riddle by unanimous judges decision
Now it's time to read your picks. Who are you prediction and how?
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About
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Joe Ferraro
I'm as resilient as they come. I've been knocked down far too many times to count, but I've never stayed down, no matter how brutal the strike. If I want something, I will work as hard as humanly possible to get it. I've lived by a personal creed for a very... |
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