Joe Ferraro

If current trends continue, the winner of Alves-Fitch may not face GSP.

UFC president Dana White has confirmed that the much anticipated rematch between Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch has been added to UFC 115 in Vancouver. However, the results of this bout may not do much for either fighter, if they hope at getting a second crack at Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre.

On the surface, many of us believe that this is the one true fight to determine the number one contender in the division. Historically speaking though, neither Fitch or Alves do not appear to fit the criteria required to get a title shot.

The organization did previously mention that the winner of the original UFC 111 bout would be next in line for GSP, but it also depends on who emerges victorious between Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley at UFC 113, scheduled for May 8, just one month before the Vancouver show.

If Daley defeats Koscheck, he will likely get the next crack at GSP, even though hardcore fans do not necessarily agree with this matchup.

When a division is stacked with talent, as is the UFC's welterweight class, second chances at a title shot (or even rematches with the champ) are a rarity.

I've long maintained that Fitch is the best welterweight in the world, this side of St-Pierre, but the champ's domination over his American foe at UFC 87 consistently has the organization looking elsewhere for the champ's next opponent.

Should Kosckeck defeat Daley and Fitch tops Alves, White will angle for a teammate vs teammate match up, to decide which one of these warriors from the American Kickboxing Academy is worthy of taking on their arch nemesis from Montreal.

Problem is, neither Fitch or Koscheck will accept this bout, with Fitch even challenging Dana at the UFC 111 post-fight press conference, stating that this bout would only take place behind close doors at AKA.

Alves, who is coming off a successful procedure to correct an irregularity found in his brain, will be looking to make a statement in his bout vs Fitch. When I say "statement", I am referring to him doing whatever it takes to ensure the bout does not go the distance.

In my conversations with the UFC and WEC matchmaking teams, the recent theme that seems to stick out is that if fighters are finishing fights, they are placed on the backburner.

Unfortunately for Fitch, a 12-1 record in the UFC means nothing; he has nine decisions in the octagon, with his last seven bouts going to the judges scorecards.

Koscheck has gone the distance six times, Alves three times and Paul Daley - two fights, both ending in the first round.

It's strange matchmaking mathematics, but it is a reality within the UFC's historical trends.

I believe all four fighters would present new and interesting challenges for the current champ, but there's a fifth name on my radar that may be escalated up the title shot ladder - Brazil's Paulo Thiago, who is rumoured to be taking on Martin Kampmann on the same UFC 115 card as Alves and Fitch.

While he has gone the distance twice in his four octagon appearances, he has yet to face GSP - a resounding victory over Kampmann might just see him bypass Fitch, Alves and Koscheck, and be right behind Paul Daley in the UFC's welterweight matchmaking scheme.