Joe Ferraro

As UFC 116 approaches at the MGM Grand Garden and Arena Saturday night, one of the stories that keeps raising eyebrows is how the once heavy favourite, Brock Lesnar, is no longer a guaranteed pick to win.

The odds on undefeated challenger, Shane Carwin has been balancing out the wagering scales to the point where Lesnar is now ahead by the slightest of margins and I believe the odds makers still have their assessment of this bout incorrect.

Let's examine why, as well as look at the rest of the UFC 116 card.

Main Card

Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin

On March 7th, 2009, I explained to any one that would listen that I firmly believe Shane Carwin would eventually mature into a top heavyweight and challenge for the title that was held by a certain Brock Lesnar.

I also said I firmly believed that he would beat him.

This was the night Carwin knocked out Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96, and I have yet to change my opinion. I believe Carwin is a much more well-rounded mixed martial artist, and come Saturday night, I believe he will (supposedly) shock the world, and have his hand raised in victory.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

This is "Sexyama's" fight to lose.

If he decides to waste his time, standing and banging with Leben, he runs the risk of actually breaking his hand/wrist on the middleweight's granite jaw. He also runs the risk of getting KO'd by Chris' left hand.

Technically speaking, I think Akiyama has the edge in all areas, but I believe his best chance at winning, is to take Leben down, and ground and pound him into a TKO or submission victory.

Matt Brown vs. Chris Lytle

This is my early pick for "Fight of the Night."

Neither one of these two welterweights have shown a consistent history of backing up. For the majority of the time, they move forward and do so launching powerful combinations. I will not be surprised if Brown squeaks out a split decision, but I look for Lytle to make Brown's lights go out in the third round.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

In a rematch from their light heavyweight battle at UFC 110, look for Bonnar and Sosyznski to continue what they did not finish in Sydney, Australia.

While Krzysztof did say he would like to keep this fight standing, I see him working for a takedown and trying to finish off Bonnar with his stellar kimura. If he cannot, then the fight goes the distance with "The Polish Experiment" earning a unanimous judges’ decision.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropoulos

If this fight doesn't hit the mat within the first minute, most of the BJJ world may go into shock.

It's difficult to pick who has the edge in this fight, but I'm giving it to the more experienced Pellegrino. Look for him to punish Sotiropoulos, but as one of my Sportsnet collegues continues to tell me, "don't be surprised if George does to The Batman, what he did to Joe Daddy" - which is to surprise everyone by dominating Pellegrino for three straight rounds.

Preliminary Card (airing on Rogers Sportsnet)

Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer

It's the athlete in Schaub vs. the bruiser in Tuchscherer. "The Hybrid," is a teammate of Carwin's and will have the speed advantage over Tuchscherer, who is one of Lesnar's main training partners. Speed generally prevails over power, but if Schaub's footwork fails him, he may be asleep before he knows what hit him. I'm picking Brendan, but I am going with a submission in this one.

Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero

Seth (The Silverback) Petruzelli is back, after being away from The Octagon for over three years. Hey may be also be known as "The Kimbo Killer," but come Saturday night, he better be ready for a "Silverback Finisher," as his opponent has finished nine of his 10 victories by either submission or knockout. If he doesn't suffer from Octagon jitters, or the rookie jinx, I'm going with Romero with the upset in this one.

Rest of Undercard

Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic

Reljic has only fought two times in nearly three years. His last bout, a unanimous decision loss to CB Dollaway at UFC 110, was the first in nearly two years. Yet, coming into this bout here he is the favourite over Grove, who took Riccardo Almeida the distance, submitted Jake Rosholt in Round 1, and looked pretty good vs. Mark Munoz (until he got rocked by the Cali native). It may be strange math, but the answer for me in this fight seems obvious. I'm taking "Da Spyder."

Dave Branch vs. Gerald Harris

Branch is an undefeated middleweight who holds a black belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie. He has competed six times, winning three by KO, and three by submission. Harris on the other hand, has nearly three times the amount of fights, and is on a nine-fight winning streak. Branch will likely fall victim to not only the octagon jitters, but a TKO victory by Gerald Harris.

Forrest Petz vs. Daniel Roberts

This is the toughest fight on this card to breakdown.

Petz is a cagey veteran while Roberts is a young buck who simply made a grappler's mistake in his UFC debut, a loss to John Howard. I believe he has learned his lesson, and will return to the win column with a submission victory over Petz.

Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola

Madsen, another training partner of Lesnar's, has the cardio to go the distance in the heavyweight division, a rarity of sorts.

He went three rounds with Mostapha Al-Turk and did the same with Justin Wren. Vemola on the other hand, is akin to Shane Carwin - he can't seem to get out of the first round because he keeps finishing his opponents off quickly. If Madsen survives Round 1, he should win. If he does not, Vemola will be another new heavyweight MMA fans will be talking about; and on this card, look for the UFC to show him off on the Pay Per View, so the world can see they have another heavyweight prospect they are building.