With Mir vs Cro Cop upon us, it's time to analyze each fight to determine who has the edge. Which fighters, on paper, hold the keys to winning their bouts and truth be told, whose fight is it to lose?
There are many times we see a bout that, on the surface, is obvious for one athlete to win. A superior wrestler who should dominate the skillful striker, who although great on his feet, is simply no match for his opponent on the ground. But, for some inexplicable reason, the wrestler decides to stand and trade with the striker, eventually getting knocked out in the process.
By analyzing some of the key attributes and skills that fighters must bring to the table, and comparing which one has the edge, we can therefore determine who should emerge victorious.
But as the old adage goes -- a fight is a fight, and anything can happen.
With that being said, let's take a look at UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop:
MAIN CARD
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir (252) vs. Mirko (Cro Cop) Filipović (227)
Striking: Cro Cop
Wrestling: Mir
Submissions: Mir
Stamina: Cro Cop
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Mir
The Edge: Frank Mir
Additional Thoughts: This is Frank Mir's fight to lose. If he chooses to play with fire and stand and trade with Cro Cop, he levels a playing field that heavily favours his wrestling and submission game. For Cro Cop, he needs to chip away and carry Frank to the third round, avoiding the ground game at all costs.
Light Heavyweight bout: Antônio Rogério Nogueira (205) vs. Ryan Bader ( 205)
Striking: Lil Nog
Wrestling: Bader
Submissions: Lil Nog
Stamina: Bader
Elite level experience: Lil Nog
Other Intangibles: Lil Nog
The Edge: Lil Nog
Additional Thoughts: On paper, this bout favours Lil Nog, but Bader's youthful exuberance, power and wrestling should be enough to chip away at Minotauro and finish him off before the 15 minutes is up.
Welterweight bout: Matt Serra (170) vs. Chris Lytle (171)
Striking: Lytle
Wrestling: Lytle
Submissions: Serra
Stamina: Lytle
Elite level experience: Serra
Other Intangibles: Lytle
The Edge: Chris Lytle
Additional Thoughts: This rematch from the TUF 4 Season Finale favours Lytle, and when you mix in the extra motivation of fighting in front of his hometown crowd, it makes for a very difficult night for Serra.
Lightweight bout: Sean Sherk (155) vs. Evan Dunham (156)
Striking: Dunham
Wrestling: Sherk
Submissions: Dunham
Stamina: Sherk
Elite level experience: Sherk
Other Intangibles: Dunham
The Edge: Sean Sherk
Additional Thoughts: Similar to the co-main event, I'm going against the "The Edge" - look for Dunham to be one step ahead of Sherk throughout the whole fight en route to earning a decision.
Lightweight bout: Melvin Guillard (155) vs. Jeremy Stephens (155)
Striking: Guillard
Wrestling: Stephens
Submissions: Stephens
Stamina: Stephens
Elite level experience: Guillard
Other Intangibles: Stephens
The Edge: Jeremy Stephens
Additional Thoughts: This is Stephens' fight to lose - stand and trade with Guillard, play with fire; take him down to the mat, and he drastically increases his chance at winning.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Available on Rogers Sportsnet)
Middleweight bout: C.B. Dollaway (186) vs. Joe Doerksen (186)
Striking: Doerksen
Wrestling: Dollaway
Submissions: Doerksen
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Doerksen
Other Intangibles: Dollaway
The Edge: C.B. Dollaway
Additional Thoughts: It's a very difficult fight to call, but I will go with Doerksen, simply for the fact that he should find a way to lock in a submission, should Dollaway take him down.
Heavyweight bout: Matt Mitrione (253) vs. Joey Beltran (239)
Striking: Beltran
Wrestling: Beltran
Submissions: Mitrione
Stamina: Beltran
Elite level experience: Beltran
Other Intangibles: Mitrione
The Edge: Joey Beltran
Additional Thoughts: Mitrione is getting minimal respect from the online MMA community but is actually a favourite with the bookmakers. I agree with the latter as Mitrione should be able to pull off the victory.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Welterweight bout: TJ Grant (170) vs. Julio Paulino (170)
Striking: Paulino
Wrestling: Grant
Submissions: Grant
Stamina: Grant
Elite level experience: Grant
Other Intangibles: Grant
The Edge: TJ Grant
Additional Thoughts: Paulino has powerful hands -- Grant will likely avoid standing and trading for too long, put Paulino on his back and look for the G'n'P TKO.
Lightweight bout: Steve Lopez (156) vs. Waylon Lowe (154)
Striking: Lopez
Wrestling: Lowe
Submissions: Lopez
Stamina: Lowe
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Lopez
The Edge: Waylon Lowe
Additional Thoughts: Lowe should be able to dictate the pace and control Lopez to win a decision.
Lightweight bout: Thiago Tavares (155) vs. Pat Audinwood (156)
Striking: Tavares
Wrestling: Audinwood
Submissions: Tavares
Stamina: Tavares
Elite level experience: Tavares
Other Intangibles: Tavares
The Edge: Audinwood will have to beat the UFC Rookie jinx and jitters, while dealing with the more elite level experienced Tavares. Audinwood's wrestling can save him here, but will he be overwhelmed with all the pressures that come with a UFC debut.
Additional Thoughts:
Heavyweight bout: Mark Hunt (265) vs. Sean McCorkle (263)
Striking: Hunt
Wrestling: McCorkle
Submissions: No Edge
Stamina: Hunt
Elite level experience: Hunt
Other Intangibles: Hunt
The Edge: Mark Hunt
Additional Thoughts: If the rumours are true, that Hunt has taken this fight (and his MMA career) seriously, he should be able to defeat McCorkle; if not, his MMA record will fall to a dismal 5-7.
Note: Other intangibles include "quality of training partners", "in prime of career", "facing a fighter in twilight of career", "opponent injured recently", "facing a fighter who is making their octagon debut", "facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice", etc.
