With UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez upon us, it’s time to analyze each fight.
With UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez upon us, it’s time to analyze each fight to determine who has the edge by examining which fighters on paper, hold the keys to winning their bouts.
There are many times we see a bout that on the surface, is obvious for one athlete to win. A superior wrestler should dominate the skillful striker, who although great on his feet, is simply no match for his opponent on the ground. But for some inexplicable reason, the wrestler decides to stand and trade with the striker, eventually getting knocked out in the process.
By analyzing some of the key attributes and skills that fighters must bring to the table and comparing which one has the edge, we can therefore determine who should emerge victorious.
But as the old adage goes – a fight is a fight and anything can happen. With that being said, let’s take a look at UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez:
Main card
Brock Lesnar (264 lbs) vs. Cain Velasquez (244 lbs)
Striking: Velasquez
Wrestling: Lesnar
Submissions: Velasquez
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Lesnar
Other Intangibles: Velasquez
The Edge: Velasquez
Additional Thoughts: While Lesnar's wrestling may be better than Velasquez's, it's Cain's striking game that is the difference here. I believe it's Velasquez' fight to lose. He should avoid wrestling and grappling with Brock at all costs, if he can stick and move to punish Lesnar, he will win. What's key to note is that Cain does not have to knock out or submit Lesnar. He just needs to win three of the five rounds. And while I would never advocate taking a fight to the full distance, this is one that I will be going against the grain with.
Jake Shields (170.5 lbs) vs. Martin Kampmann (170 lbs)
Striking: Kampmann
Wrestling: Shields
Submissions: Shields
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Similar
The Edge: Shields
Additional Thoughts: While the weight cut did make Shields look a tad bit weary at the weigh-ins, his performance should not suffer too much. Once it becomes a reality that he can throw elbows, he will be able to derive all the energy he needs, to end this bout before the full 15 minutes are up.
Tito Ortiz – (206 lbs) vs. Matt Hamill – (203.5 lbs)
Striking: Ortiz
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Ortiz
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Ortiz
Other Intangibles: Ortiz
The Edge: Tito Ortiz
Additional Thoughts: Look for Ortiz to keep this one standing up, but he did tell me at the open workouts that he believes Hamill is very weak off his back. Do not be surprised if Ortiz tries to take the fight there.
Gabriel Gonzaga (254 lbs) vs. Brendan Schaub (239 lbs)
Striking: Schaub
Wrestling: Gonzaga
Submissions: Gonzaga
Stamina: Gonzaga
Elite level experience: Gonzaga
Other Intangibles: Gonzaga
The Edge: Gabriel Gonzaga
Additional Thoughts: It's Schaub's striking speed against Gonzaga's power. Similar to my thoughts on the Velasquez bout, Schaub should avoid the ground at all costs. He needs to keep his chin down, and work for the knockout. If not, Gonzaga may make this a very short night for "The Hybrid."
Diego Sanchez (170.5 lbs) vs. Paulo Thiago (170.5 lbs)
Striking: Thiago
Wrestling: Sanchez
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Sanchez
Elite level experience: Sanchez
Other Intangibles: Sanchez
The Edge: Diego Sanchez
Additional Thoughts: If Sanchez can make Thiago keep up with his relentless pace, he will be a nightmare to deal with for the Brazilian. Look for Sanchez to impose his will.
Televised Prelims (Available in HD, exclusively in Canada on Rogers Sportsnet)
Court McGee (184.5 lbs) vs. Ryan Jensen (185 lbs)
Striking: McGee
Wrestling: McGee
Submissions: Jensen
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Jensen
Other Intangibles: Jensen
The Edge: Ryan Jensen
Additional Thoughts: Jensen's safest bet is to put McGee on his back. If he cannot, McGee will hold court, and finish off Ryan.
Patrick Cote (185 lbs) vs. Tom Lawlor (185 lbs)
Striking: Cote
Wrestling: Lawlor
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Cote
Elite level experience: Cote
Other Intangibles: Cote
The Edge: Patrick Cote
Additional Thoughts: It doesn't get any more basic than this one. For Cote, his easiest path to victory is via the stand up realm. For Lawlor, it's to control "The Predator," while ground and pounding his way to a TKO or a judges decision.
Rest of Preliminary Card
Mike Guymon (170 lbs) vs. Daniel Roberts (170 lbs)
Striking: Guymon
Wrestling: Guymon
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Roberts
The Edge: Mike Guymon
Additional Thoughts: Guymon should focus on sprawling and brawling to keep Roberts on his feet. There is no point going to the ground, unless absolutely mandatory.
Sam Stout (155.5 lbs) vs. Paul Taylor (155 lbs)
Striking: Stout
Wrestling: Stout
Submissions: Stout
Stamina: Stout
Elite level experience: Stout
Other Intangibles: Stout
The Edge: Sam Stout
Additional Thoughts: The weight cut, travel and foreign territory may simply be too many intangibles for Taylor to handle. Let alone having to worry about a relentless pair of stone hands coming at him.
Chris Camozzi (185 lbs) vs. Dongi Yhang (186 lbs)
Striking: Yhang
Wrestling: Camozzi
Submissions: Camozzi
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Camozzi
Other Intangibles: Camozzi
The Edge: Chris Camozzi
Additional Thoughts: While this bout favours Camozzi on paper, Yhang is one flurry away from ending this one at anytime. Don't blink, as this one may end quickly.
Gilbert Yvel (249 lbs) vs. Jon Madsen (254 lbs)
Striking: Yvel
Wrestling: Madsen
Submissions: Madsen
Stamina: Madsen
Elite level experience: Yvel
Other Intangibles: Madsen
The Edge: Jon Madsen
Additional Thoughts: Look for the obvious from both fighters. For Madsen he must clinch, takedown, ground and pound. For Yvel do some head hunting until the KO is achieved.
Note: Other intangibles include the quality of training partners, in prime of career, facing a fighter in twilight of career, opponent injured recently, facing a fighter who is making their octagon debut and facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice etc.
