Breaking down UFC 123 fight-by-fight to determine who has 'The Edge' on paper.
With UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida upon us, it's time to analyze each fight to determine who has "The Edge," by analyzing which fighters, on paper, hold the keys to winning their bouts -- the bottom line: whose fight is it to lose?
There are many times we see a bout that on the surface is obvious for one athlete to win; a superior wrestler who should dominate the skillful striker, who although great on his feet, is simply no match for his opponent on the ground. But, for some inexplicable reason, the wrestler decides to stand and trade with the striker, eventually getting knocked out in the process.
By analyzing some of the key attributes and skills that fighters must bring to the table, and comparing which one has the edge, we can therefore determine who "should" emerge victorious.
But as the old adage goes: "a fight is a fight, and anything can happen." With that being said, let's take a look at UFC 123: Rampage vs. Machida.
Main card
Light heavyweight bout: Quinton Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida
Striking: Machida
Wrestling: Jackson
Submissions: Machida
Stamina: Machida
Elite level experience: Jackson
Other Intangibles: Machida
The Edge: Lyoto Machida
Additional Thoughts: It's speed vs. power in the main event. Will Rampage be able to deal with Machida's "elusive" style while reacting quickly enough to The Dragon's counter attack. An aggressive Jackson is exactly what Lyoto wants, but one thing must be noted: there is likely a slim chance that if Rampage connects flush Machida will still be awake.
Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn
Striking: Penn
Wrestling: Hughes
Submissions: Penn
Stamina: Hughes
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Hughes
The Edge: Hughes
Additional Thoughts: Hughes' resurgence and Penn's apparent demise are both angles that are overrated. None of the three fighters that Hughes has recently defeated were ranked in the top 10 while Penn's last two losses were against Frankie Edgar, a fighter who simply has his number, and in my opinion, is the best 155-pounder on the planet.
Middleweight bout: Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falcão
Striking: Falcao
Wrestling: Harris
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Harris
Other Intangibles: Harris
The Edge: Harris
Additional Thoughts: Falcao doesn't seem like someone who will suffer the octagon rookie jinx, but it is definitely an intangible that must not be overlooked. Harris has been there, and if he pressures Falcao early, he may be able to pull out a quick victory.
Light heavyweight bout: Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch
Striking: Boetsch
Wrestling: Davis
Submissions: Davis
Stamina: Davis
Elite level experience: Boetsch
Other Intangibles: Davis
The Edge: Davis
Additional Thoughts: Davis should be able to neutralize Boetsch's strength, and if he can put "The Barbarian" on his back, look for "Mr. Wonderful" to end this fight, long before the full 15 minutes is up.
Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Lauzon
Other Intangibles: Sotiropoulos
The Edge: Sotiropoulos
Additional Thoughts: Lauzon has shown a history of having a difficult time trying to make it past the hump that is the cusp of competing with the division's elite. His opponent, thus far, has been able to succeed in defeating those that stand in his way of taking on the best of the 155-pound weight class.
Preliminary card (Live at 9 p.m. on Rogers Sportsnet East and Ontario.)
Middleweight bout: Aaron Simpson vs. Mark Munoz
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Munoz
Submissions: Simpson
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Munoz
Other Intangibles: Munoz
The Edge: Munoz
Additional Thoughts: This is a great middleweight matchup that can go either way. Considering all things to be fairly equal, I believe Munoz's strength will be the key factor in dictating where this fight will take place.
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Brian Foster
Striking: Brown
Wrestling: Foster
Submissions: Brown
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Brown
Other Intangibles: Brown
The Edge: Brown
Additional Thoughts: The time for Foster to shine is now; Brown is coming off two straight losses and cannot afford to lose a third time. If Foster shows up the same way he did against Brock Larson and Forrest Petz, he should have his arm raised in victory.
Non-televised prelims
Welterweight bout: Karo Parisyan vs. Dennis Hallman
Striking: Parisyan
Wrestling: Parisyan
Submissions: Hallman
Stamina: Parisyan
Elite level experience: Parisyan
Other Intangibles: Hallman
The Edge: Hallman
Additional Thoughts: Karo has only fought once over the past 18 months; Hallman has competed four times. Ask anyone in the know, and they'll tell you that Parisyan has the skills to be one of the best in the division. His only setback has been himself. If he's over that self-derived hurdle, he can easily defeat Hallman, and go for a serious run up the welterweight rankings.
Lightweight bout: Edson Barboza vs. Mike Lullo
Striking: Barboza
Wrestling: Lullo
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Negligible
Other Intangibles: Barboza
The Edge: Barboza
Additional Thoughts: Barboza is coming into this bout with a ton of hype; if he can live up to it, we may see the second coming of Charles Oliveira. Mind you, he better keep all his limbs in check, or Lullo may take one of them home as a souvenir.
Lightweight bout: Paul Kelly vs. T.J. O'Brien
Striking: Kelly
Wrestling: O'Brien
Submissions: O'Brien
Stamina: Kelly
Elite level experience: Kelly
Other Intangibles: Kelly
The Edge: Kelly
Additional Thoughts: O'Brien is making his UFC debut vs. Kelly, a veteran of seven octagon bouts. Kelly can stand and bang with the best of them, while O'Brien is a serious submission fighter. Of his 16 wins, 15 have come by way of submission. Anyone hazard to guess where each fighter has the edge in this bout?
Lightweight bout: Tyson Griffin vs. Nik Lentz
Striking: Griffin
Wrestling: Griffin
Submissions: Griffin
Stamina: Griffin
Elite level experience: Griffin
Other Intangibles: Griffin
The Edge: Griffin
Additional Thoughts: Unless we've officially seen the end of Tyson Griffin, look for him to dominate in this fight. The question is whether he will be able to finish off Lentz. And don't be surprised if Nick's game plan is to frustrate Tyson into a stand-up war, in hopes that Griffin may be gun shy after being tagged a few times.
Note: Other intangibles include quality of training partners, in prime of career, facing a fighter in twilight of career, opponent injured recently, facing a fighter who is making his octagon debut, facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice, etc.
