Breaking down all the fights and analyzing who has the advantage at UFC 125 in Las Vegas.
With UFC 125: Resolution upon us, it's time to break down each bout to determine who has "The Edge" by analyzing which fighters, on paper, hold the keys to winning. The bottom line: whose fight is it to lose?
There are many times we see a bout that, on the surface, is obvious for one athlete to win; a superior wrestler who should dominate the skillful striker, who although great on his feet, is simply no match for his opponent on the ground. But, for some inexplicable reason, the wrestler decides to stand and trade with the striker, eventually getting knocked out in the process.
By analyzing some of the key attributes and skills that fighters must bring to the table, and comparing which one has "The Edge" we can therefore determine who should emerge victorious.
But as the old adage goes: A fight is a fight and anything can happen.
With that being said, let's take a look at UFC 125: Resolution:
Main card
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (C) vs. Gray Maynard
Striking: Edgar
Wrestling: Maynard
Submissions: Edgar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Edgar
Other Intangibles: Maynard
Additional Thoughts: As Ryan Bader stated on MMA Connected, one has to wonder if the "big brother" analogy will be the case here. Will Maynard's victory in their original bout play havoc on Edgar, mentally? Like Edgar, will Maynard be the one fighter who has Frankie's number? I say no. While Gray should be able to pull this off, can he handle Frankie's evolution in speed and striking since they last tangled? Again, I say no.
The Edge: Edgar
Middleweight bout: Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann
Striking: Leben
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Leben
Elite level experience: Leben
Other Intangibles: Leben
Additional Thoughts: I don't like Stann's chances if he stands and trades with Leben. His best chance it to put Chris on his back, watch his base, keep his limbs in check and work his ground 'n' pound / submissions.
The Edge: Leben
Light Heavyweight bout: Brandon Vera vs. Thiago Silva
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Vera
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Vera
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Vera
Additional Thoughts: All signs are pointing to Vera winning this bout, but how will he rebound from the first round loss to Jon (Bones) Jones remains to be seen. Look for Silva to try and capitalize early and force Vera to play defence. Brandon will likely showcase his footwork in this bout, play the "in and out" game and look for the KO. It's still playing with fire, but I believe going to the ground with Silva can be a dangerous proposition.
The Edge: Vera
Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Kim
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Diaz
Elite level experience: Diaz
Other Intangibles: Diaz
Additional Thoughts: This will be the final litmus test at 170 lbs for Diaz. "Stun Gun" is a serious contender in the division, and should be able to overpower Nate when they clinch, but can he handle Diaz's relentless pace, as the Cali native will push him to exhaustion as soon as he possibly can. Look for a controlling, three-round decision by Kim, but don't blink: if Diaz locks onto a limb, it may get ugly real quick.
The Edge: Diaz
Lightweight bout: Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi
Striking: Gomi
Wrestling: Guida
Submissions: Gomi
Stamina: Guida
Elite level experience: Gomi
Other Intangibles: Guida
Additional Thoughts: Guida has competed against higher-level competition over the past few years and -- win or lose -- he has always put on a show. Look for "The Carpenter" to smother "The Fireball Kid" but beware Guida fans: Takanori may play the same game that Kenny Florian did against Clay. If he can execute it, he will hammer out a victory.
The Edge: Guida
Preliminary card to air on Sportsnet Ontario and Sportsnet East
Lightweight bout: Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Davis
Stamina: Stephens
Elite level experience: Davis
Other Intangibles: Stephens
Additional Thoughts: Davis cutting down to 155 lbs, then having to face a grueling machine like Stephens is a recipe for disaster. I'm not sure I truly like this match-up for "The Irish Hand Grenade."
The Edge: Stephens
Featherweight bout: Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier
Striking: Grispi
Wrestling: Grispi
Submissions: Grispi
Stamina: Grispi
Elite level experience: Grispi
Other Intangibles: Grispi
Additional Thoughts: With Grispi originally scheduled to face off against Jose Aldo for the UFC Featherweight title, look for the top contender to make an example of Poirier. Anything less than a finish may give Mark Hominick (should he finish off George Roop) the next shot at championship glory.
The Edge: Grispi
Middleweight bout: Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares
Striking: Baroni
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Baroni
Other Intangibles: Tavares
Additional Thoughts: This is arguably Baroni's last chance with the UFC. What that means is a lot of pressure on the MMA vet. For Tavares, a patient game that can frustrate the "NYBA" might just be the key to victory. He should avoid boxing with Phil, and take him down to the ground. If he cannot, or if he does not, his jaw will not be happy with him.
The Edge: Baroni
Preliminary card
Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Diego Nunes
Striking: Brown
Wrestling: Brown
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Brown
Elite level experience: Brown
Other Intangibles: Brown
Additional Thoughts: Brown's long road to the title now begins with Nunes. It originally started, and ended miserably with Manny Gamburyan. I expect a safer fight from Mike in this one, while waiting for his opportunity to pounce (aka - TKO victory over the Nova Uniao fighter).
The Edge: Brown
Welterweight bout: Daniel Roberts vs. Greg Soto
Striking: Roberts
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Soto
Stamina: Soto
Elite level experience: Roberts
Other Intangibles: Roberts
Additional Thoughts: I like Roberts' training partners and the fact he preps with some of the best guys outside of the UFC, while Soto has the luxury of prepping with the likes of Kurt Pellegrino. I've seen both guys compete in person on numerous occasions, and the style match-up appears to favour Greg.
The Edge: Soto
Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Antonio McKee
Striking: Volkmann
Wrestling: McKee
Submissions: Volkman
Stamina: McKee
Elite level experience: McKee
Other Intangibles: McKee
Additional Thoughts: Antonio is a very underrated lightweight, and to most, flying under the main stream UFC fan's radar. He is a serious wrestler who will likely avoid the stand-up with Volkmann, take him down and grind-out a three-round, dominant decision.
The Edge: McKee
Note: Other intangibles include quality of training partners, in prime of career, facing a fighter in twilight of career, opponent injured recently, facing a fighter who is making their octagon debut, facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice, etc.
