Examining Fedor Emelianenko's last fight and his past results may indicate the Russian is in decline.
It has been a few days since Fedor Emelianenko lost for the second straight fight for the first time in his career, which now has him thinking retirement.
While he takes the time to ponder his future, one question worth considering is whether his last two results are just a small slide, or the indication of a larger trend. That is, has he actually been deteriorating as a fighter for a while now?
How might we answer the question? Naturally, let's look at the numbers.
In his loss Saturday to Antonio Silva, Emelianenko was not only battered and bruised, he was pretty well dominated statistically.
Overall, the two actually landed the same percentage of strikes (53 percent) but the volume was heavily in Silva's favour. Silva threw nearly double the amount in total (119 vs. 68) and also had the decided edge in significant strikes (70 vs. 44).
Even more telling were the second-round statistics which were completely one-sided in Silva's favour -- something that was clear to those who watched the fight. Silva threw 71 strikes and landed 38, while Emelianenko was just 10 of 12. The sheer numbers combined with the fact that most of it was spent with Silva in full mount -- meaning the blows were delivered with force and with no leeway for Fedor as his head lay on the mat -- explains how the legend ended up with a face that looked like a smashed watermelon.
Now let's take a quick look at Emelianenko's previous loss, the then-stunning armbar submission at the hands of Fabricio Werdum. There were very few strikes thrown in the 69 seconds of the bout before Fedor tapped out from an armbar. But Fedor was 5 of 13 for 38 per cent, which is subpar for him considering he has a career striking accuracy of 54 percent.
The in- and post-fight commentary at the time was that he was too aggressive (or perhaps overconfident) going after Werdum when the latter pulled guard; Fedor got careless and got caught. But breaking down the numbers, the fact is even in his aggression, he wasn't even doing a good job of it, accuracy-wise.
What about his previous two fights in 2009, which were both wins? In each of them he came in as a heavy favourite yet found himself in a little trouble early on. The fact that he hung in and won in dramatic fashion both times had many hailing him again as one of the best in the world.
Yet, a deeper look at the numbers shows that perhaps we could have predicted what we have witnessed in his most recent two fights.
In his second-round TKO of Brett Rogers and his first-round knockout of Andrei Arlovski prior to that, Emelianenko was actually outstruck.
Here are the first-round striking stats for each fight:
Emelianenko vs. Rogers, Nov. 7, 2009
Emelianenko: 22 of 34 (65%)
Rogers: 29 of 40 (72%)
Emelianenko vs. Arlovski, Jan. 24, 2009
Emelianenko: 9 of 21 (43%)
Arlovski: 19 of 33 (58%)
He rebounded in the second frame to stop Rogers and Emelianenko ended the Arlovski fight with one punch. But we've since come to discover the glass jaw that the latter possesses (which was on display again in the Belarusian's loss to Sergei Kharitonov Saturday.)
Emelianenko's last four results come in stark contrast to his results prior to 2009, when Emelianenko was, basically, a machine. Just take a look at some of his notable results in years past.
In his Affliction debut on July 19, 2008, vs. Tim Sylvia, he was 17 of 19 in strikes (89 per cent) in just 36 seconds of action before Emelianenko choked out the former UFC champion. And on Dec. 31, 2007, Emelianenko was a perfect 13 of 13 against the 7-foot-2, 330-pound Hong Man Choi, winning by submission in 1:54.
Okay, those two don't represent the toughest competition. How about this: In each year from 2004-2006, he destroyed one of the most notable names in the heavyweight division, as the stats display.
2006 vs. UFC Hall of Famer Mark Coleman
Emelianenko: 86 of 91 (95%)
Coleman: 10 of 16 (62%)
2005 vs. Croatian legend Mirko Cro Cop
Emelianenko: 125-213 (59%)
Cro Cop: 63 of 103 (61%)
2004 vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Emelianenko: 115 of 194 (59%)
Big Nog: 59 of 150 (39%)
What does all this indicate? Simply put, the Russian Emperor has been on a tangible decline in the past two-plus years. While he is now saying his post-fight retirement talk may have been premature and Emelianenko still needs to do his "analysis" on why he lost, the heavyweight may want to consider the numbers laid out here.
Indeed, Silva had a better fight statistically than any previous opponent of Emelianenko. But given his recent statistical performances, perhaps that should have come as no surprise.
