Showdown Joe gives his breakdown for UFC 128.
With UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones upon us, it’s time to analyze each fight to determine who has the edge, by analyzing which fighters hold the keys to winning their bouts.
There are many times we see a bout that on the surface, is obvious for one athlete to win. A superior wrestler should dominate the skillful striker, who although great on his feet, is simply no match for his opponent on the ground.
But, for some inexplicable reason, the wrestler decides to stand and trade with the striker, eventually getting knocked out in the process.
By analyzing some of the key attributes and skills that fighters bring to the table, and comparing which one has the edge, we can therefore determine who should emerge victorious.
But as the old adage goes: A fight is a fight, and anything can happen. With that being said, let’s take a look at UFC 128: Shogun vs. Bones.
Main card
Main Event for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Mauricio (Shogun) Rua vs. Jon (Bones) Jones
Striking: Rua
Wrestling: Jones
Submissions: Rua
Stamina: Jones
Elite level experience: Rua
Other Intangibles: Jones
Additional Thoughts: Although Jones has not competed against a fighter the caliber of Rua, what may be the deciding factor is whether or not he can push a steady pace against the champion.
He must avoid damage to his legs from Rua's cut kicks and push him to the point of exhaustion. History has shown that when Rua returns from an extended layoff, his cardio suffers. If the champion cannot finish off the challenger early, I do not like his chances later on in the fight.
Now, if his lungs do not fail him and fatigue is a minor factor, he should prove that he is still the best light heavyweight fighter in the game today.
It's a close fight to call, so as you saw on this week's episode of MMA Connected, I had to flip a coin, heads for the champ and tails for the challenger. It landed on heads.
The Edge: Mauricio (Shogun) Rua
Co-Main Event
Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland
Striking: Faber
Wrestling: Faber
Submissions: Faber
Stamina: Faber
Elite level experience: Faber
Other Intangibles: Faber
Additional Thoughts: This is Faber's fight to lose. It may be best if he takes Wineland down to the ground and avoids playing with fire.
Eddie's specialty is his stand up game, so why bother trading punches when he can simply avoid it altogether. A smart Faber is a winning Faber.
The Edge: Urijah Faber
Striking: Miller
Wrestling: Shalorus
Submissions: Miller
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Miller
Other Intangibles: Miller
Additional Thoughts: Shalorus has a history of standing and banging, even though he is a world class wrestler. The smart game would be to put Miller on his back and work for a TKO, but if the past shows us anything, he will likely sit in the pocket and try and look for a KO.
While Kamal is a handful for any lightweight in the division, Miller is too crafty and will figure out a way to put Shalorus on his back and work is way to TKO, submission or judges decision.
The Edge: Jim Miller
Striking: Marquardt
Wrestling: Miller
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Marquardt
Other Intangibles: Similar
Additional Thoughts: While some may disagree, this may be the best match up of the evening.
Marquardt is the favourite and told me he will be looking for the finish.
However Miller is as tough as they come, so I see this one going the distance in a close bout.
One fighter will steal a round, in a very close affair.
The Edge: Nate Marquardt
Mirko (Cro Cop) Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub
Striking: Cro Cop
Wrestling: Schaub
Submissions: Schaub
Stamina: Schaub
Elite level experience: Cro Cop
Other Intangibles: Schaub
Additional Thoughts: My gut tells me this may just be Cro Cop's swan song in MMA. Cro Cop has not defeated any heavyweight in the top 25 in years.
Schaub is on the rise and will likely frustrate the Croatian into making a mistake and look for The Hybrid to earn a TKO victory here.
The Edge: Brendan Schaub
Prelims on Rogers Sportsnet
Luiz Cane vs. Elliot Marshall
Striking: Cane
Wrestling: Marshall
Submissions: Marshall
Stamina: Negligible
Elite level experience: Cane
Other Intangibles: Cane
Additional Thoughts: Unless Marshall can take Cane down to the mat, I do not like his chances.
Cane is looking to make a statement in this fight and that means a knockout. The longer he keeps Marshall standing, the worse it will be for (The Fire).
The Edge: Luiz Cane
Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Njokuani
Striking: Barboza
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Njokuani
Other Intangibles: Barboza
Additional Thoughts: If you've heard my radio show, watched my TV show or read many of my interviews, I've been saying it for quite some time that Edson Barboza is the Jon (Bones) Jones of the lightweight division. He has the it factor with devastating muay thai.
He is ruthless and is only getting better. This has potential to be the fight of the night and or knockout of the night written all over it.
The Edge: Edson Barboza
Facebook (free) Fights
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Tibau
Additional Thoughts: Look for Tibau to impose his will on the hometown favourite.
Pellegrino may have the home town crowd behind him, but he will also have a massive monster on top of him, pounding away and working his submissions game.
It's a well matched fight, but Gleison will likely win two of three rounds.
The Edge: Gleison Tibau
Striking: Pyle
Wrestling: Pyle
Submissions: Almeida
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Almeida
Additional Thoughts: This is a going to be a stellar fight, with two well rounded welterweights that will put it all on the line.
Pyle has been coming into his own recently but (The Big Dog) will likely not lose in front of the hometown crowd.
This one will be a battle for the ages and like the main event, may require a coin flip, cause it's that close.
The Edge: Ricardo Almeida
Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland
Striking: Benavidez
Wrestling: Loveland
Submissions: Benavidez
Stamina: Benavidez
Elite level experience: Benavidez
Other Intangibles: Benavidez
Additional Thoughts: Loveland is a true MMA vet, but Benavidez is a top contender that will push the pace in this fight and likely find a way to finish him off. Can it go the distance?
Of course it can, but Loveland's Vo2 Max will be pushed to the highest levels in this fight and if he cannot keep up with (Joe-Jitsu), he will make a mistake that the Team Alpha Male bantamweight will capitalize on.
The Edge: Joseph Benavidez
Nick Catone vs. Constantinos Philippou
Striking: Catone
Wrestling: Catone
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Catone
Elite level experience: Catone
Other Intangibles: Catone
Additional Thoughts: Making your UFC debut on short notice, against a guy who has four fights with the UFC, one of which was a split decision loss to Mark Munoz, is not a good omen for Philippou.
It may be too much for the Matt Serra prodigy to handle, unless he can pull off what his teammate, Chris Weidman did vs. Alessio Sakara.
I do not like his chances.
The Edge: Nick Catone
Erik Koch vs. Raphael Assuncao
Striking: Koch
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Assuncao
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Assuncao
Other Intangibles: Koch
Additional Thoughts: This may be Koch's coming out party, especially if he can finish Assuncao off. If the Roufusport prodigy can keep this fight on standing, he may shock Raphael early and pull of a TKO worthy of being shown on the main card.
I believe it is his fight too lose.
The Edge: Erik Koch
Note: Other intangibles include the quality of training partners, in prime of career, facing a fighter in twilight of career, opponent injured recently, facing a fighter who is making their octagon debut and facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice.
