There’s no doubt Saturday’s UFC 128 main event matchup is interesting on paper.
The champion Mauricio Rua and challenger Jon Jones are in completely different stages of their careers. Jones is the 23-year-old up-and-comer, possibly peaking even earlier than many expected. Rua is the veteran, as well as one who interestingly was pretty much in the exact same position as Jones six years ago when he became Pride champion for the first time, and he has built a stunning career on the heels of that.
Statistically speaking, both are very similar. Their career striking accuracy is virtually identical, with each connecting on one of every two strikes thrown (give or take one per cent). Rua has a slight edge in volume of strikes (57.46 vs. 53.66 per 15 minutes), but they are pretty close. Both are very respectable numbers.
The figures show Jones to be the stronger wrestler (3.98 vs. 2.52 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) while Rua offers more in the submission department (1.35 vs. 1.06 attempts per 15 minutes). Jones naturally has the advantage physically as he’s younger, taller (by three inches) and has an 8.5-inch reach advantage. But Rua has the championship experience, both longtime and recent.
However, I find it even more intriguing to compare Jones with the fighter who was originally supposed to face Rua -- indeed the fighter Rua spent most of his training camp preparing for -- namely, Rashad Evans.
Why? Because the differences between the two Americans -- who also happen to be training partners, and could end up facing each other should Jones win -- could be key, especially if Shogun did not make enough of an adjustment in his preparation for Jones once Evans pulled out.
At Wednesday’s pre-fight press conference, Rua said he brought bigger guys to his camp who are taller and have longer reach in order to deal with what Jones will offer. But I doubt any could have mimicked Jones, whose 84.5-inch reach is currently the largest in the UFC.
Rua also said he thought Jones wasn’t necessarily tougher than Evans but just more exciting and looks for finishes more. Well, he may be underselling Jones’ advantages a bit.
Here’s the statistical comparison between Jones and Evans:
Jones has a 10 per cent edge in career striking accuracy (49% vs. 39%) over Evans and a much higher striking volume (53.66 vs. 28.9 strikes per 15 minutes).
Both Evans and Jones have strong wrestling, as indicated by their presence in a couple of the UFC’s top-10 all-time lists. There you’ll find Evans is No. 7 in the UFC’s history in total takedowns landed in his career with 44. However, Jones is No. 6 in takedown accuracy in his career at 68%, which is significantly better than Evans at 53%.
While Evans has a slight edge in volume of takedowns per 15 minutes (4.62 vs. 3.98), Evans has a “lay and pray” reputation and doesn't come close to inflicting the same type of punishment on opponents once he has them on the ground as Jones does (even in a DQ loss, as Matt Hamill can attest).
Bottom line: Rua had better be ready, because he could be in for something he never saw coming with Jones.
On the other hand, Rua is No. 9 in the UFC record books with 54.8% significant striking accuracy. And he just set a mark on ESPN Sport Science with the “hardest” kick ever recorded in the lab, generating 2,749 pounds of force.
So Jones could be in for something he wasn’t expecting even if he does see it coming.
NOTES: Quite a few other fighters find themselves on the lists of UFC records:
Mirko Cro Cop - No. 1 in takedown defence (90%)
Jim Miller - No. 10 in significant strike defence (70.5%)
Marquardt - No. 7 (tied) in knockdowns landed (8); also No. 3 in takedown accuracy (70.6%)
Cane - No. 7 in strikes landed per min (4.85)
Almeida - No. 5 in strikes absorbed per min (1.05)
Tibau - No. 3 in takedowns landed (52)
I’ll be keeping these in mind while I watch those fighters compete Saturday night.
Here are my picks for the main event and prelims on Sportsnet.
Follow me on Twitter: @James_Brydon.
