BY JOE FERRARO
sportsnet.ca
It's that time once again - a major UFC event on Saturday night, so why not take a look at each bout to determine who will have "The Edge".
These articles are some of my favourites to write, as it forces me to analyze, on paper, how a fight may play out and I sincerely hope it helps you as well; especially if you are making your fantasy picks picks. http://mmatournament.sportsnet.ca.
As always, and I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but as many of you have heard on "The Showdown" podcasts, I must throw out a caveat before I make any predictions: Remember, I am not responsible for a fighter's silly game plan.
What should happen is often what we see on paper but I cannot predict, for example, if a superior grappler decides to stand and trade with a superior striker. I cannot account for this type of risky behaviour.
With that being said, let's take a look at who I believe will have "The Edge" at UFC 134: Silva vs Okami II:
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Main Event
Middleweight championship title fight: Anderson Silva (C) vs. Yushin Okami
Striking: Silva
Wrestling: Okami
Submissions: Silva
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Silva
Other Intangibles: Silva
Additional Thoughts: No one should be surprised if Okami pulls out a five-round decision victory. This is MMA, and stranger things (and much bigger upsets) have happened. But with Silva fighting at home, as the leader of his country's MMA army, I believe we will see a vintage performance where he makes an example of his opponent. Then again, I will also not be surprised if he plays it safe and avoids losing at all costs.
The Edge: Silva
Co-Main Event
Light heavyweight bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
Striking: Rua
Wrestling: Griffin
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Griffin
Elite level experience: Rua
Other Intangibles: Griffin
Additional Thoughts: It is very difficult for me to go against the blue collar work ethic of Forrest Griffin. But if both guys come into this fight at 100% (or whomever is closest), I favour the man fighting at home. If his cardio fails him, this will be a huge story after the event that I'm sure Rua will not want to address.
The Edge: Rua
Heavyweight bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub
Striking: Schaub
Wrestling: Schaub
Submissions: Nogueira
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Nogueira
Other Intangibles: Negligible
Additional Thoughts: I respect the fact that Big Nog has been decimated by injuries that have required multiple surgeries over the past few years. His octagon rust may be a factor here, especially against the younger and faster American. As long as Schaub does not play with fire and engage the ground game with Big Nog he should emerge victorious.
The Edge: Schaub
Lightweight bout: Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza
Striking: Barboza
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Pearson
Other Intangibles: Negligible
Additional Thoughts: If Pearson can take Barboza down, he should be able to even out this match-up. But if he stands and trades with "Junior," we may see a similar bout to the ones we saw between Jose Aldo and Urijah Faber, Forrest Griffin vs. Quinton Jackson and the vintage classic between Marco Ruas and Paul Varelans.
The Edge: Barboza
Light heavyweight bout: Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov
Striking: Cane
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Nedkov
Elite level experience: Cane
Other Intangibles: Cane
Additional Thoughts: If Nedkov can withstand the early onslaught, he may be able to pull off a decision. First round and a half - if it goes that long - will go to Cane, purely on adrenaline. If he's still around, Nedkov will have to do some catching up on the judges scorecards.
The Edge: Cane
Prelim fights airing on Rogers Sportsnet (8 p.m. EST, 5 p.m. PST)
Lightweight bout: Thiago Tavares vs. Spencer Fisher
Striking: Fisher
Wrestling: Fisher
Submissions: Tavares
Stamina: Fisher
Elite level experience: Fisher
Other Intangibles: Tavares
Additional Thoughts: This is a difficult bout to breakdown, but something tells me Fisher is going to nullify Tavares' hometown aggression. It won't be easy, and this one could go the distance. I'll take Fisher to steal two rounds to one.
The Edge: Fisher
Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller
Striking: Miller
Wrestling: Miller
Submissions: Palhares
Stamina: Miller
Elite level experience: Miller
Other Intangibles: Negligible
Additional Thoughts: Miller's comfort zone and ego cannot get the better of him. No matter how much he believes in his BJJ black-belt skills, why bother playing with fire; forget the ground game with Palhares. If he keeps it standing, he wins. If not, come Sunday morning, we may be talking about the various damage his legs endured from the torquing "Toquinho" will apply via his various leg lock submission attempts.
The Edge: Palhares
Facebook Prelim Fights (Quick predictions)
Welterweight bout: Paulo Thiago vs. David Mitchell
Striking: Thiago
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Thiago
Stamina: Thiago
Elite level experience: Thiago
Other Intangibles: Thiago
Additional Thoughts: While most of the match-ups favour Thiago, Mitchell has some serious skills (especially on the ground) that could give his Brazilian opponent fits. Look for Thiago to pick Mitchell apart in the stand-up realm. While I believe Thiago's jiu-jitsu is better than Mitchell's, I'm not sure it's worth it for him to prove it on Saturday night.
The Edge: Thiago
Bantamweight bout: Raphael Assuncao vs. Johnny Eduardo
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite level experience: Assuncao
Other Intangibles: Assuncao
Additional Thoughts: I really like this match-up. Eduardo is a by-product of Jungle Fight Shooto and has competed in Bellator. With over 30 fights under his belt, his experience is well documented. But will the curse of the UFC rookie jinx come into play here? It might, so I will use that to make my pick. But I won't be surprised if Eduardo's ruthlessness raises many eyebrows, as well as his arms in victory when he finally gets the chance to showcase his skills inside the octagon.
The Edge: Raphael Assuncao
Welterweight bout: Erick Silva vs. Luis Ramos
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Silva
Stamina: Ramos
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Silva
Additional Thoughts: This one has old-school vale tudo written all over it; to the point that I would not be surprised if one of these guys accidentally breaks a rule. These fighters are two exceptional animals who are primed to destroy one another. Ramos is a cardio machine, while Silva seems to catch people with his slick subs at opportune times.
The Edge: Silva
Featherweight bout: Yuri Alcantara vs. Felipe Arantes
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Alcantara
Stamina: Arantes
Elite level experience: Alcantara
Other Intangibles: Alcantara
Additional Thoughts: Shins will definitely be flying in this one. And if it hits the ground, the slight edge goes to Yuri, but not by much. In fact, Arantes did take this bout on somewhat short notice, so stamina may be an issue for him. Look for Alcantara to win two rounds to one.
The Edge: Alcantara
Bantamweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs. Ian Loveland
Striking: Jabouin
Wrestling: Loveland
Submissions: Loveland
Stamina: Loveland
Elite level experience: Loveland
Other Intangibles: Loveland
Additional Thoughts: This is a stellar "style vs. style" match-up. Jabouin has the potential to score a knockout of the night vs. Loveland, but if he gets taken down, it will be a long night for the Montreal native. Loveland has stellar takedowns, smothering ground-and-pound and textbook submissions. His wrestling should dictate where this fight will take place.
The Edge: Loveland
Note: Other intangibles could include quality of training partners, prime of career, facing a fighter in the twilight of his career, opponent injured recently, facing a fighter who is making their octagon debut and facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice.
