Who has The Edge?

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Joe Ferraro | September 23, 2011, 8:41 am

Twitter @ShowdownJoe

It's that time once again -- a major UFC event on Saturday night, so why not take a look at each bout to determine who will have "The Edge."

These articles are some of my favourite to write, as it forces me to analyze, on paper, how a fight may play out and I sincerely hope it helps you as well; especially if you are making your picks in the latest UFC Fantasy tournament, which is starting up anew with Saturday's UFC 135.

As always, and I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but as many of you have heard on "The Showdown" podcasts, I must throw out a caveat before I make any predictions: remember, I am not responsible for a fighter's silly gameplan.

What should happen, is often what we see on paper, but I cannot predict, as an example, if a superior grappler decides to stand and trade with a superior striker. I cannot account for this type of risky behaviour.

With that being said, let's take a look at who I believe will have "The Edge" at UFC 135.

Main event: Light-heavyweight title bout - Jon Jones vs. Rampage

Striking Jones
Wrestling Jones
Submissions Jones
Stamina Jackson
Elite-level Experience Jackson
Intangibles Jones

Additional Thoughts: While Jones' unpredictability, youth and speed should be more than enough to successfully defend his title for the first time, he should be cognizant of Rampage's ability to fight inside the pocket. If he does not take Jackson down, the former champ is a left or right hook away from getting his belt back.

The Edge: Jon Jones

Co-main event: Welterweight bout - Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

Striking Koscheck
Wrestling Koscheck
Submissions Hughes
Stamina Similar
Elite-level Experience Hughes
Intangibles Koscheck

Additional Thoughts: It's the battle of who will be officially labeled "Matt Hughes 2.0." Kos has it now, but with a victory over Josh, it will be Matt who many will focus on as a resurging veteran. But Koscheck's speed may be too much for the veteran to handle - look for the youngster to TKO the Hall of Famer.

The Edge: Josh Koscheck

Heavyweight bout: Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton

Striking Browne
Wrestling Browne
Submissions Broughton
Stamina Similar
Elite-level Experience Browne
Intangibles Browne

Additional Thoughts: This bout should be a treat. Both heavyweights have great cardio so look for a full out donny brook that at times may appear tactical. This one has the makings of a 15-minute brawl, a rarity in the heavyweight division. Browne's footwork and timing may be the winning factor her.

The Edge: Travis Browne

Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi

Striking Similar
Wrestling Gomi
Submissions Diaz
Stamina Diaz
Elite-level Experience Similar
Intangibles Diaz

Additional Thoughts: Gomi can pull off this fight. His wrestling is better and his striking is far stronger, but Diaz will be relentless in his pursuit to push Takanori around. If the Japanese wrestler cannot deal with Nate's pace, he will fade by the end of the second round.

The Edge: Nate Diaz

Heavyweight bout: Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt

Striking Hunt
Wrestling Rothwell
Submissions Rothwell
Stamina Rothwell
Elite-level Experience Rothwell
Intangibles Rothwell

Additional Thoughts: This is "Big Ben's" fight to lose. If he stands and trades with Hunt, I do not like his chances. Wrestling and positional control will set up the submissions and TKO. If he does not play that game, he may be staring at the arena lights, while lying on his back, after being woken up by the doctors.

The Edge: Ben Rothwell

Preliminary bouts to air on Rogers Sportsnet ONE at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.

Lightweight bout: Tony Ferguson vs. Aaron Riley

Striking Riley
Wrestling Ferguson
Submissions Riley
Stamina Riley
Elite-level Experience Riley
Intangibles Riley

Additional Thoughts: I understand why many are picking Ferguson to win this fight, but Riley has been around; this is a guy who has fought for years, against some of the best, and whose resume includes many fight of the night worthy bouts. His experience should push Ferguson all night long, but if Tony can push the pace, I will not be surprised if this one ends in a hurry (for Ferguson).

The Edge: Aaron Riley

Middleweight bout: Nick Ring vs. Tim Boetsch

Striking Ring
Wrestling Boetsch
Submissions Ring
Stamina Similar
Elite-level Experience Boetsch
Intangibles Similar

Additional Thoughts: There are many who do not like this bout, but on paper, it's an interesting dichotomy between two fighters with different skillsets. Ring's Muay Thai may have him in this fight -- he must use his leg kicks to slow "The Barbarian" down, but if he does so he'd better launch them and then getting out of the way. If he stops to enjoy the view, he will spell "The Beginning of the End" for his night, and suffer the first defeat of his career. His knees, should they falter, could also be his downfall. I just feel that at one point, Boetsch may catch him, and end his night abruptly.

The Edge: Tim Boetsch

Preliminary bouts to air on Facebook

Featherweight bout: Junior Assuncao vs. Eddie Yagin

Striking Yagin
Wrestling Similar
Submissions Assuncao
Stamina Similar
Elite-level Experience Assuncao
Intangibles Assuncao

Additional Thoughts: The longer this fight goes, the more the edge will favour Assuncao. Yagin can end this quickly, if he is able to work his striking speed against the Brazilian. But if he gets taken down, Junior should be able to catch him with a submission.

The Edge: Junior Assuncao

Bantamweight bout: Takeya Mizugaki vs. Cole Escovedo

Striking Similar
Wrestling Escovedo
Submissions Similar
Stamina Mizugaki
Elite-level Experience Similar
Intangibles Mizugaki

The Edge: Takeya Mizugaki

Light-heavyweight bout: James Te Huna vs Ricardo Romero

Striking Similar
Wrestling Romero
Submissions Romero
Stamina Similar
Elite-level Experience Similar
Intangibles Romero

Additional Thoughts: This is a stellar bout to open up the evening at The Pepsi Center. I cannot see this one going the distance. Someone is going to sleep or tapping out, and I don't believe it will be Romero. While Te Huna is one tough Aussie, Romero has something to prove after his last bout, a 21-second TKO loss to Kyle Kingsbury. Then again, maybe James can replicate what "Kingsbu" did -- explode early and catch his American counterpart by surprise.

The Edge: Ricardo Romero

 
 
 
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Joe Ferraro | Twitter @ShowdownJoe

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