UFC Forecast 2012: Crazy (busy) like a FOX

It is fitting that on the second-to-last day of 2011, my top UFC newsmaker Brock Lesnar dropped another bombshell when he decided to retire. That more or less closed out one of the biggest dramas (both literally and figuratively) of the world’s top MMA organization.

So, what Octagon storylines will we see in 2012? Here are a few items that are as much about what to expect in general as they are actual predictions. (But feel free to question their accuracy by this time next year.)

Here you go, a forecast of 2012 in the UFC...

DANA WHITE WILL LOSE IT AT SOME POINT

This is really going out on a limb, right?

The brash president of the UFC has been known to spout off on reporters. But this year the stress of a crazy busy UFC schedule may just push him right over the edge.

If you thought 2011 was filled with so many events, perhaps even to the point of oversaturation, wait until you get a load of 2012. Last year there were 27 shows -- an average of about one every two weeks. That number will grow to a record 34 this calendar year.

Between now and April 14 alone, there are already nine events scheduled, each in a different city, in six different countries, across five continents. Can you say jetlag?

In the leadup to the first UFC event on FOX in November, White admitted to being a “mess” over all the preparation for the historic event. It’s only going to get worse.

Since New Year’s Eve, he’s already been caught on camera a little tipsy -- could this be a precursor to his mental state in 12 months...

Asked about his New Year’s resolution: “Don’t do stupid interviews when you’re drinking.” Perhaps it should be to find some rest. Good luck.

All kidding aside, it will be just as hectic a year for the UFC fan, who may have to start deciding which fights to watch and which to skip. There will be plenty to choose from.

However, the busyness will also be key to the business; White said “the work he and his staff put into the next two years will be more important to the company than the past 10.” That begins in 2012.

MANY UFC VETERANS WILL CALL IT A CAREER

We already know that Tito (Don’t Call Him The Huntington Beach Bad Boy) Ortiz will fight once more before packing in the gloves, saying he wanted to go 15 years in the sport. But there will likely be many others to whom we’ll be saying farewell.

Get ready to say farewell to former champions Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, who have hinted at retirement (perhaps Griffin after a final fight with Tito). Matt Hughes and Sean Sherk could also soon make it official.

Other guys you can expect to hang ‘em up before the year is out: Wanderlei Silva, Jason MacDonald, Jorge Rivera, Stephan Bonnar and possibly even Dan Henderson. Hendo will probably get a title shot against someone but if he doesn’t win, what else would there be for him?

There’s already been a changing of the guard in the UFC to some degree as youthful champions such as Jon Jones and Frankie Edgar have replaced longtime stars.

Last year we saw legends Randy Couture and Mirko (Cro Cop) Filipovic fight for the last time and heard retirement announcements from other veterans such as Chris Lytle, Nate Quarry and B.J. Penn (though it doesn't seem like Penn's will stick.)

The trend will continue and be even bigger in 2012.

CHAEL SONNEN WILL HAVE A BETTER YEAR THAN HE DID IN 2011

And we’re not just talking in the Octagon.

Considering how his 2011 began outside the cage, it shouldn’t be too hard a feat. Sonnen started the year on a six-month suspension for a positive drug test, and had multiple commission hearings before he finally got a date to return to action. Unfortunately it may have cost him an opportunity to be a coach on The Ultimate Fighter (not to mention his title rematch with Anderson Silva was cancelled.)

Meanwhile, he pleaded guilty to money laundering for his involvement in one of his real estate dealings, had to pay a fine and had his realtor licence revoked. And the whole matter had already cost him an opportunity to run for Senate in his home state of Oregon.

He did win his only fight in the UFC against Brian Stann to put him in position for the No. 1 contendership, but you can expect him to fight more often in 2012 and I expect him to have more wins.

His first fight comes this month against Mark Munoz, where Sonnen’s all-around game should allow him to prevail. That will set him up for a potential rematch with Anderson Silva. Whether that happens is uncertain.

White has said he’d like it to be in Brazil but Sonnen faced death threats last year for disparaging comments he made about the country. Sonnen also recently said he was done with Silva and would cash in his “No. 1 contender” chip to fight someone else. Might we finally see him as a TUF coach instead?

Half the things the quotable Chael says are to be taken with a grain of salt. But it’s safe to say this de facto standup comedian will have less negative headlines and more things to celebrate in 2012.

THE SPORT WILL BE POPULARIZED MAINSTREAM WITH UFC'S FOX DEAL

Nevermind the 60-minute special in November that ended up featuring just 64 seconds of live fighting. The UFC’s real deal with FOX starts now.

The UFC will still air its biggest events on pay-per-view but there will now be a handful of shows (with full slates of televised fights) free on network television, more readily available to the masses than previous "free" ones that aired on cable TV.

On Jan. 28, the first full fight card on FOX is featured with what’s being billed as "the tripleheader." (See, they’re already using mainstream sports lingo.) And it’s scheduled intentionally a week before the big Super Bowl weekend show to drum interest in a new fan base and (they hope) to get them to buy the PPV.

There will be a lot of UFC programming on FOX subsidiaries FX and FUEL TV, including a new “UFC Tonight” magazine show that will feature highlights and interviews. Not to mention advertising on all of the above channels will give them access they have never had before.

And not to be diminished is the fact there will be a brand new look and feel to the shows and intros, including the pay-per-view broadcast, as part of the makeover. For example, gone will be the gladiator PPV intro, which while stirring, was not depicting the right image for the masses. Now the UFC will no longer be portrayed as a bloodsport, but as the truly athletic endeavour it is.

THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER WILL BECOME COMPELLING AGAIN

The UFC’s ground-breaking reality TV show suffered a decline in ratings as it approached the end of its run on Spike, and a certain amount of malaise set in among many fans and critics. While good coaching matchups kept things somewhat interesting (especially when they were perceived jerks like Michael Bisping and Jason Miller), the in-house shenanigans were getting a bit old, the fights were becoming stale and the taped aspect of the show left a lot to be desired.

That will all change in 2012 as part of the FOX deal, as The Ultimate Fighters goes “live.” Instead of episodes being filmed over six weeks, then edited and aired several months later, it will be edited "the week of shooting" over the course of the 13 weeks.

And no more will the fights be two-round results for which fighters have to keep a secret for months. Each week on Friday nights on FX (and hopefully Sportsnet or FX Canada this side of the border), we’ll see a live battle that’s all the more intense. That’s what’s so dramatic about live sports -- you know it’s unfolding as you watch it.

In addition, the UFC is launching international versions of the show, starting with TUF: Brazil in 2012, with an eye on simultaneous editions down the line that will lead into a “World Cup of MMA.” That will drum up real interest, even more so worldwide.

The Ultimate Fighter was the original catalyst to launching the UFC as a league into popularity. The new edition should restore interest in the show itself.

CHAMPS WILL BE HARD TO DETHRONE, BUT...

... Frankie Edgar will be the first to relinquish his belt.

Over the past year there hasn’t been much turnover at the top of the UFC divisions, apart from heavyweight and light-heavyweight. The latter has seen the most the past few years, but expect that trend to end as Jon (Bones) Jones is primed to reign atop the 205-pound division for some time.

Same for featherweight champion Jose Aldo (who should beat Chad Mendes next week in Brazil) and bantamweight title-holder Dominick Cruz (who has already dominated Urijah Faber once before) in their respective weight classes.

Georges St-Pierre and Anderson Silva are injured and may only defend their belts once in 2012. Perhaps not at all for GSP as his rehab from knee surgery could keep him out more than the initial 10-month prognosis.

As for the lightweight champion, Edgar showed his mettle the past couple years, casting away doubters by beating B.J. Penn and then doing it once more in more definitive fashion, then not losing to Gray Maynard before beating him in the rematch, again in more definitive fashion.

However, Ben Henderson has been casting away doubters too, and it says here the former WEC champion will take home UFC gold when the two meet in Japan in February.

Junior Dos Santos could be in tough against Alistair Overeem and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he loses his belt in his first fight since capturing it. But if you had to pick one guy among all seven current belt-holders who’s most likely to lose it, go with Edgar. (Plus, he’s fighting before JDS will.)

James Brydon is the Managing Digital Editor and blogger for sportsnet.ca's UFC section.