The MMAnalysis

There’s been a lot of talk about the verbal sparring between the four featured fighters in Saturday’s UFC on FOX. But what will actually take place when the fighters physically engage in the cage?

In the co-main event between Chael Sonnen and Michael Bisping, what type of fight can we expect? Will Sonnen go for a quick takedown and use his wrestling to dominate Bisping? Will Bisping try to keep it on the feet and strike? Or will he be content if it goes to the ground to counter with his jiu-jitsu and try to pull off what Anderson Silva and Demian Maia did against Sonnen?

While the old adage of “anything can happen in MMA” always applies, let’s take a look at what the numbers suggest might happen.

Sonnen has not won a fight by TKO or KO in quite some time -- over four years actually. In fact, he has never won a fight by knockout in the UFC/WEC. And his three UFC losses were all by submission.

Meanwhile, Bisping has won eight of his UFC fights by TKO, including his last two, and he himself has only been knocked out once.

So, this would suggest that Bisping has the big advantage standing. A look at the UFC records reveals some surprises.

Sonnen ranks No. 2 in Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM), at 0.96, meaning for every minute of action, he manages to receive just under one blow, making him the second best all-time in that regard. He avoids the rest either by blocking, dodging or putting himself in an advantageous position where his opponent cannot throw a strike.

He also ranks No. 9 in Strike Differential with a plus 2.15 and is 10th in Total Strikes Landed (which albeit includes the less-effective jabs on the ground and from the clinch) with 1,134 in his UFC career.

What about Bisping? He ranks No. 4 in Significant Strikes Landed with 746 (mostly standup and more effective than total strikes), No. 10 in Strikes Landed Per Minute (SLpM) at 4.75, No. 6 in Strike Differential at 2.37 and No. 5 in Significant Strike Defense at 71.7%.

So what does this all say? Bisping clearly has the edge in standup striking, but Sonnen is no slouch. In fact, his strike differential is only slightly lower (2.37 vs. 2.15) and while Bisping does a great job of defending strikes (of which Sonnen throws a lot) by either dodging or blocking, Sonnen does a great job overall of avoiding strikes.

Of course, Sonnen is also an All-American college wrestler, so you’d expect him to be great in that department. The stats are on his side -- he averages 4.01 takedowns per 15 minutes, which ranks him 10th out of 234 qualified fighters in the UFC. And his takedown accuracy is 62%, which is just outside 10th place on the UFC list.

On the other hand, Bisping averages less than half the number of takedowns (1.93) and his success is 10 percentage points less. As for his takedown defence, he only ranks 53rd out of 130 qualified fighters at 64.9% (according to FightMetric), which is somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Bisping will obviously be looking to defend the takedown, but the figures suggest he should also not sleep on Sonnen’s standup.

Sonnen’s coach suggested recently that he was the best boxer in MMA. At Thursday’s pre-fight press conference, Bisping responded, sarcastically, to that suggestion.

"Of course, he’s the best, he’s Muhammad Ali, he’s the champion, he’s everything, and I’m just a guy from England trying to fight him. I mean, what chance do I have?"

Then he gave his serious answer: "Let’s be honest I outbox him every day, all day. He’s a great wrestler but I’m a great fighter."

We’ll see on Saturday, because the stats on a whole skew a little in Sonnen’s favour. But I personally like Bisping’s chances, considering his effectiveness on his feet and how difficult he is to be stopped.

On to the main event. Phil Davis finds himself on two UFC Top 10 lists, in both cases ranked higher than Sonnen and Bisping.

First, only one person in the UFC avoids taking damage at a better rate than Sonnen and it’s Davis, ranking No. 1 in SApM at a crazy-low 0.38. (It only includes fighters with a minimum five UFC fights, which he achieved after his win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira last March.)

Mr. Wonderful also sits No. 3 in Strike Differential at 3.01. Only former and current heavyweight champions Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos rank higher, with 6.13 and 4.72, respectively.

That’s some pretty good numbers, and not necessarily what you would expect from the Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt with two submission wins in the Octagon but none by knockout. Most people have been looking at this as a striker vs. wrestler duel with Evans being the striker (five of his 11 wins coming by knockout).

Of course, Davis is a four-time All-American wrestler and NCAA Division I national champion in 2008. So it naturally irked him at Thursday’s pre-fight press conference when Evans criticized his wrestling skills -- he called Davis’s technique “trash” -- and said that he would beat Davis if the two wrestled even without MMA.

Of course, that’s unlikely to ever happen. And as long as we’re talking wrestling within MMA competition (which is what will be in play on Saturday night), Evans, a Division I wrestler himself but without the accolades, might have the numbers to back him up.

Evans finds himself on one all-time Top 10 list -- he's No. 8 in Takedowns Landed with 45. With 13 career UFC fights, that averages to 3.46 per fight. Davis is at a disadvantage in that regard since he’s only fought five times, but his 13 career UFC takedowns work out to just 2.6 per appearance.

What about his average takedowns per 15 minutes of action, which is a more fair comparison? Evans still holds the edge, at 4.45 compared to 3.37 (over their whole careers). That means you would “expect” Evans to land one more takedown over the course of a 15-minute fight, which could be the difference between winning and losing given how close their battle may be (not to mention it could go 25 minutes as a five-round, non-title, headlining fight).

Evans is also slightly more effective at executing the takedown, with a 54% accuracy vs. Davis whose takedown success is a 50-50 proposition. Not a huge difference by any stretch, but still, the edge goes to Evans. As for defending it, Evans is 61.5% effective at stuffing his past UFC opponents, while Davis has never been taken down, though he has only faced seven total attempts (not a big enough sample size to make a really good judgment.)

On Thursday, Davis was incredulous at Evans' suggestion that he could keep up with his wrestling. He had better be prepared for the possibility on Saturday.

Striking will likely play just as big a role, both standing and on the ground, and Davis should do fine there. But I’m giving the overall nod to Evans.

Watch all fights on Sportsnet, starting with the undercard at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT on Sportsnet ONE, followed by the main card at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on East, Ontario, West and Pacific.

James Brydon is the Managing Digital Editor and blogger for sportsnet.ca's UFC section.