The odds tell us that UFC 162 will see the end of two important streaks – the unbeaten record of Chris Weidman and the three-fight losing skid of former champ Frankie Edgar.
Weidman is a +200 underdog as the middleweight title challenger to champion Anderson Silva, according to OddsShark.com. At 9-0, a loss would snap his streak, while extending Silva’s unprecedented 17-fight win streak dating back to 2006.
And Edgar, a huge -550 favorite against Charles Oliveira, needs a win to remain relevant in the featherweight division (145 pounds). After three title defenses at lightweight (155 pounds), Edgar lost back-to-fight scraps with Benson Henderson then lost a decision to Jose Aldo when he dropped a weight class.
“Our question on Frankie is whether he can put the foot on the gas right away in a three-round fight, because he has fought seven straight five-round championship fights,” said Jack Randall, a UFC analyst at OddsShark.com.
“Can he speed up the early pace knowing he has only three rounds to get rid of Oliveira?”
Oliveira is a +425 underdog but is highly regarded since dropping to featherweight. He was knocked out by Cub Swanson in a shocker in his last fight and has lost each time he climbed in against tougher lightweight competition (Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone).
In the Main Event, Silva faces a talented athlete and wrestler who didn’t even start competing in MMA until 2009 – three years after Silva beat Forrest Griffin for the middleweight belt back at UFC 64. And while Silva is 38, he remains the pound-for-pound champion, finishing 15 fights in his 17-fight win streak.
“If mystique and experience count for anything – and it may not against the 29-year-old Weidman – then Silva is a good deal at -260 at most sportsbooks,” said Randall. “Silva has struggled with good wrestlers and that is Weidman’s background.”
There is concern with some MMA handicappers that Weidman has not fought in a year, beating up Mark Munoz at UFC of Fuel TV 4. Octagon rust has proven a real problem for many fighters facing long layoffs.
Munoz also fights Saturday in a middleweight bout that keeps one man in the title mix and sends the other tumbling down the rankings. Both Munoz and Tim Boetsch – as a Maine native, the closest thing to a Canadian on the 11-fight card in Las Vegas – are coming off bad losses.
There are other streaks on the line which will save some jobs and likely send others packing from the UFC.
One more win by Cub Swanson likely earns him a shot at Jose Aldo’s title and he is a favourite against Germany’s Dennis Siver. Siver’s kicking prowess makes him an attractive underdog here at +185 to stop Swanson’s four-fight win streak.
Dave Herman is riding a three-fight losing streak and another loss (he’s an underdog to Brazilian Gabriel Gonzaga) might earn him a promotional pink slip.
And Norman Parke boasts a seven-fight win streak and he is a -190 favourite against Kazuki Tokudome, a Pancrase veteran who won his UFC debut in March.
The biggest underdog of the night is currently David Mitchell, who is +475 against scrappy veteran Mike Pierce, who should win easily here.
Current UFC 162 odds, aggregated by BestUFCOdds.com
Mike Pierce -650
David Mitchell +475
Pick: Pierce KO
Seth Baczynski -300
Brian Melancon +250
Pick: Baczynski submission
Gabriel Gonzaga -240
Dave Herman +200
Pick: Gonzaga submission
Rafaello Oliveira +425
Edson Barboza -550
Pick: Barboza KO
Dennis Siver +185
Cub Swanson -225
Pick: Siver TKO
Norman Parke -190
Kazuki Tokudome +165
Pick: Parke decision
Roger Gracie +125
Tim Kennedy -145
Pick: Kennedy decision
Chris Leben +130
Andrew Craig -150
Pick: Craig decision
Mark Munoz -135
Tim Boetsch +115
Pick: Munoz TKO
Frank Edgar -550
Charles Oliveira +425
Pick: Edgar decision
Anderson Silva -260
Chris Weidman +220
Pick: Weidman decision