A little over five years ago, Gegard Mousasi earned a first-round submission win over current UFC heavyweight Mark Hunt in the opening round of the DREAM Super Hulk Grand Prix. It was the Netherlands-based kickboxer’s first appearance since besting current contender Ronald “Jacare” Souza to win the organization’s Middleweight Grand Prix and become their inaugural champion in the 185-pound weight class.
Back then Mousasi was all upside — a fighter in his early 20s with a wealth of experience and some quality wins already under his belt; unlimited potential and the natural abilities to become a superstar in this sport.
Saturday night in Berlin, Germany, the soon-to-be 29-year-old looks to rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Lyoto Machida in February and once again start down the path to being a championship threat at the highest level.
The time between his win over Hunt and Saturday’s matchup with Mark Munoz has been littered with starts and stops — breakthroughs and setbacks, steps forward and trips to the sidelines. Over the last five years, Mousasi has never managed to build any serious momentum with victories against overmatched opponents falling between high profile losses, with a couple of major knee injuries and a little bad luck mixed in for good measure.
Out of fear of stumbling into a never-ending wormhole of hypotheticals and possibilities, let’s stay away from the “what ifs?” that accompany Mousasi’s proposed UFC debut against Alexander Gustafsson in April 2013 — a bout that instead turned into the UFC audience’s introduction to Ilir Latifi — and let’s remain focused on the here and now.
As obviously talented as he is, Mousasi can’t really afford to drop a second consecutive contest to Munoz this weekend in Berlin. Not that he’s in danger of being released or anything like that, but the middleweight division has become rather deep and competitive over the last 18 months.
Strikeforce alumni Luke Rockhold, Tim Kennedy and Souza have all climbed into the Top 10 and the resurgent Vitor Belfort still looms large, while Munoz and Michael Bisping are fixtures in the upper tier of the 185-pound ranks. With Mousasi currently positioned at No. 11, a loss on Saturday threatens to push him even further down the rankings and call his upside into question.
His ardent supporters aren’t going to like this, but Mousasi might be overrated right now, much like Jake Ellenberger was when he entered his UFC 173 fight with Robbie Lawler ranked in the Top 5 of the welterweight division. Just as Ellenberger was propped up by victories that had passed their expiry date, Mousasi hasn’t exactly been piling up wins over premium opposition in recent years.
The best win on his resume is his victory over Souza in 2008, which came when Mousasi caught Souza with an upkick just over two minutes into the opening round. It was a good win, but one that looks even better today as a result of Souza’s continued development. But make no mistake about it, the fighter Mousasi beat in Japan isn’t the same athlete competing in the UFC today and if the two were to meet again now, the Brazilian would likely be a heavy favourite.
Since then, Mousasi’s best win is a unanimous decision victory over Ovince St. Preux in his penultimate appearance under the Strikeforce banner in December 2011. For the most part, Mousasi has dominated competition that he should have dominated, building up an impressive record in the process, but the substance isn’t quite there. And that’s what makes his meeting with Munoz such a pivotal contest.
After years of teasing with his talent and getting the better of overmatched opponents, it’s time for Mousasi to prove he deserves the high praise and championship potential many bestow upon him. Munoz is the perfect opponent at this time too — an established presence in the middleweight division, but not an unbeatable foe by any means, as “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” has been finished (violently at that) in two of his last three outings.
Saturday’s bout in Berlin is Mousasi’s third UFC appearance and third consecutive main event assignment. He’s split his first two showings, dominating Latifi and losing to current title challenger Machida in a fight where he, by his own admission, failed to make the necessary adjustments between rounds in order to give himself a better chance to win.
Which makes his showdown with Munoz a rubber match of sorts, but it’s Mousasi’s standing as a top contender in the middleweight ranks that’s on the line.
A win moves him into the Top 10 once the new rankings are tabulated and released on Monday and creates the potential for a meeting with either of the aforementioned Strikeforce alums a possibility. A loss, however, should prompt everyone to reconsider not only Mousasi’s place in the rankings, but his future going forward.
For all the grief Bisping gets for failing to win when it matters the most, “The Count” has a handful of very good wins over established UFC competitors on his resume, something that Mousasi and his supporters can’t say at present and still won’t be able to say should he lose this weekend.
Once tabbed as one of the top emerging talents in the sport, Mousasi has failed to live up to those expectations thus far and needs a victory Saturday if he ever hopes of doing so in the future.