Martin Kampmann is a 2/1 underdog as the Danish welterweight looks to prove his earlier win of Carlos Condit was no fluke.
But bettors don’t seem to be giving him much of a chance, as more than 70 per cent of the wagering action at one sportsbook was backing The Natural Born Killer as of Tuesday.
“We opened Condit back in July at -210 and he was -270 this morning,” said Adam Burns, sportsbook manager at Bodog. “The money keeps coming in on Carlos as we approach UFC Fight Night 27 Wednesday.”
Kampmann is just 3-3 in his last six fights against top-flight competition, but he could be 1-5. One victory was a close split-decision against Rick Story and one was a comeback submission of Thiago Alves, where Kampmann had been battered for three rounds before escaping.
At 3-3, the Dane remains in the title mix at 170 pounds. At 1-5, the title talk would be muted.
MMA analyst Jack Randall thinks Condit will win, but the price of that wager is too high against a resilient warrior like Kampmann. He sees better value further down the card, which goes on the new Fox Sports 1.
Erik Perez -145 vs. Takeya Mizugaki +115
Perez has fought three times in the UFC and stopped his opponents in the first round each time. Mizugaki is 4-2 in the UFC, but won’t withstand the pressure and pace that Perez will bring, according to Randall.
Brian Melancon +180 vs. Kelvin Gastelum -230
Anyone who saw Melancon batter Seth Baczynski last month on short notice at UFC 162 will be intrigued by this underdog line. He faces the latest Ultimate Fighter winner in 6-0 Gastelum, who steps up in competition here and probably shouldn’t be favoured by so much.
Court McGee +115 vs. Robert Whittaker -145
The Ultimate Fighter 11 champ is the underdog here against Whittaker, who is 2-0 in the Octagon employing a dangerous hands-by-his-sides boxing style. Against a high-tempo brawler with a solid wrestling base, this fight should hit the mat and McGee will grind him to pieces.
Donald Cerrone -165 vs. Rafael dos Anjos +135
Cowboy Cerrone never has a boring fight and he’s always going for the finish. Rafael dos Anjos is riding a four-fight winning streak (three decisions) but gets more than he can handle with leg kicks and a snapping jab.