Bigger isn’t always better, but all other things being equal, it’s hard to bet against the bigger man in MMA.
It’s a rule of thumb that many UFC prognosticators seem to be forgetting as they pick Chael Sonnen to beat Mauricio (Shogun) Rua Saturday on the debut of FOX Sports 1.
Watch UFC on Sportsnet: Shogun vs. Sonnen on Saturday Aug. 17 starting at 6pm ET / 3pm PT on Sportsnet 360, plus catch three bonus prelims on sportsnet.ca starting at 4:30pm ET / 1:30pm PT – Broadcast Schedule
“Sonnen can move up to light-heavyweight and compete, but it’s not the same as being a guy who walks around at 230 pounds like Shogun,” said MMA analyst Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.
“The champions at light-heavyweight, welterweight and lightweight — Jon Jones, GSP and Benson Henderson — are all big guys in their division.”
He says the experts picking Chael to grind out a decision victory are ignoring that fact. “We say it won’t get to a decision because Rua will take him out.”
Sonnen is a slight -130 favourite at most sportsbooks for Fox’s all-sports network debut in Boston. Rua would pay +110 on the same UFC odds menu. The risk on Rua is stamina – he is known to fade later in fights.
It’s the main event and offers the most star power, but it’s far from the most important fight on the card. For the uninitiated, this is a battle of former light-heavyweight champion Rua, who is clinging to the fringe of the title picture.
Sonnen has lost a pair of title shots at middleweight (185 pounds) to Anderson Silva and was demolished by current light-heavyweight champ Jon Jones this year. But his flamboyant, self-promoting style keeps the former champion wrestler’s name in the mix for main events.
Sonnen has already announced he will return to middleweight after this fight, another indication that he is not interested in battling bigger bodies at 205 pounds. Shogun has alternated wins and losses since 2009 and would win Saturday if that pattern continues.
Most Important Fight
The heavyweight division will advance a title contender from the Alistair Overeem vs. Travis Browne scrap. But how seriously will champion Cain Velasquez view either man? Both were knocked out by Antonio Silva and Velasquez destroyed Silva twice.
Overeem is a hulking former kickboxing champion who returns after serving a PED suspension. He was a significant -230 favourite, while the 6-foot-7 Browne would pay +190 for the upset.
Urijah and Uriah
How often does one sporting event feature two men named Uriah/Urijah? Former WEC featherweight champion Faber faces 28-4 Yuri Alcantara in a match that could send Alcantara into title consideration at 135 pounds.
The problem is that his impressive record is built largely on the backs of weaker competition, hence his status at the sportsbooks as a big underdog to the veteran Faber. Alcantara was listed at +220 at most shops on Thursday.
And Uriah Hall, who sent two Ultimate Fighter contestants to the hospital on last season of the reality show, faces John Howard, making his Octagon return (at home) after winning six of seven fights outside the UFC. He was cut in 2011 after a three-fight losing skid against tough foes including Thiago Alves and Jake Ellenberger.
Hall, who was unimpressive in his UFC debut, is -450 or higher and betting Howard at +350 or better might be the best value on the card. Hall has lost to middleweight champ Chris Weidman and contender Costa Phillipou while in the Ring of Combat promotion.
Complete UFC on Sportsnet: Shogun vs. Sonnen odds:
Ramsey Nijem -175
James Vick +155
Max Holloway +230
Conor Mcgregor -270
Ovince St. Preux -300
Cody Donovan +250
Cole Miller +100
Manny Gamburyan -120
Diego Brandao -320
Daniel Pineda +260
Brad Pickett +165
Michael McDonald -190
Mike Brown -200
Steven Siler +170
Joe Lauzon -225
Michael Johnson +185
John Howard +335
Uriah Hall -420
Matt Brown -150
Mike Pyle +130
Urijah Faber -260
Yuri Alcantara +220
Alistair Overeem -230
Travis Browne +190
Mauricio Rua +110
Chael Sonnen -130