By Dwight Wakabayashi
The UFC returns to Brazil this weekend for UFC on FX 8 and the main event will feature national legend Vitor Belfort against the last Strikeforce middleweight champion, Luke Rockhold, in his UFC debut. This exciting main event fight could determine the next No. 1 contender to the middleweight title.
Before the main card festivities begin, the preliminary card is filled with popular names such as Paulo Thiago, Fabio Maldonado, Hacran Dias and Gleison Tibau, all fighting in key fights for their careers.
Here is my complete preliminary card breakdown (with bonus picks).
Lucas Martins (12-1) vs. Jeremy Larsen (8-3) – lightweight
The online prelims get under way with two men fighting to stay employed in the UFC. Both men suffered quick losses in their debut fights as Martins lost to Edson Barboza and Larsen lost to Joe Proctor. Martins has strong Muay Thai as his base and Larsen, while a little more well rounded is not as strong in any one area of the game. Martins should catch him at some point.
Martins by first-round TKO
Jussier da Silva (14-2) vs. Chris Cariaso (14-4) – flyweight
Jussier (Formiga) da Silva gets a chance to move up the flyweight ladder as he takes on Chris Cariaso in the second bout on sportsnet.ca. Cariaso had some success at bantamweight before he decided to drop down, and now has one win and one loss in his new division. He most recently lost to John Moraga in December.
Da Silva jumped right into deep waters in his UFC debut as he came up short against John Dodson in a No. 1 contender fight. Da Silva was dominated by Dodson to push him down the ladder a bit and into this pivotal fight. Jussier is a wizard on the ground, but if he is unable to take it there on Cariaso, he will be in for a long night.
Cariaso by decision
John Lineker (20-6) vs. Azamat Gashimov (7-2) – flyweight
In the final fight of the online prelims, tough Brazilian striker John Lineker will take on young prospect Azamat Gashimov. Lineker came up on the short end of his debut, a great fight with Louis Gaudinot, and then bounced back with a win over Yasuhiro Urushitani. Gashimov made his debut in the bantamweight division, where he faced savvy veteran Ivan Menjivar last fall. Gashimov fell victim to a crazy armbar submission from Menjivar, and has moved down a weight for this one.
Lineker has a big edge in experience and raw power, and that will lead him to a victory.
Lineker by decision
Fabio Maldonado (18-6) vs. Roger Hollett (13-4) – light heavyweight
The Sportsnet televised undercard kicks off with a possible light-heavyweight slug-fest between Brazilian fan favourite Fabio Maldonado and Canadian behemoth Roger Hollett. Maldonado has lost three fights in a row, but his straight-ahead, brawling style has garnered him many supporters in the sport. Maldonado takes punches and keeps on coming, but can he fight smart to win and save his job in the UFC?
Hollett was less than impressive as a late replacement against Matt Hamill last September in Toronto, and he hopes a full training camp to prepare will make all the difference in the world this time out. Hollett is probably the better technical striker, and he is going to have to use his technique and accuracy to land on the button and stop Maldonado from bombing straight ahead. I don’t see this one going to the ground at any point and the better chin takes the win. The loser is most likely done in the UFC.
Maldonado by decision
Yuri Alcantara (27-4-1) vs. Iliarde Santos (27-6) – bantamweight
Yuri Alcantara was originally set to face Marcos Vinicius but Santos steps in on short notice for a big opportunity to defeat a name. Alcantara had some great success at featherweight before being forced down a weight by a bad loss to Hacran Dias. His time in his new division did not start well as he was unjustly robbed of a win over Pedro Nobre when the official incorrectly penalized him for punches to the back of the head. The fight was ruled a “no contest” and now he faces a two-fight winless streak going in.
Santos is a veteran of the sport and is on a six-fight winning streak coming into this opportunity. Santos is well-rounded and experienced and has both knockouts and submissions on his resume. He looks to be an impressive and worthy opponent but Alcantara has faced much tougher competition. He should be able to get a finish in this one.
Alcantara by second-round TKO
Paulo Thiago (14-5) vs. Michel Prazeres (16-0) – welterweight
Thiago was supposed to fight Lance Benoist but an injury has forced Benoist out and that may turn out to be just what Thiago needs with his back up against the wall. Thiago is an experienced and popular fighter who desperately needs a win to stay employed in the welterweight division. Thiago was dominated by Dong Hyun Kim in his last fight and knocked out early by Siyar Bahadurzada before that, and Prazeres should be a relatively easy victory for him.
Prazeres gets this debut with an undefeated 16-0 record fighting in the regional circuit in Brazil. Most of his wins have come by submission and it is his stand-up that is the unknown going in to the fight. Prazeres may be forced to fight standing and Thiago should be much better there. A loss and Thiago will most likely be released from the UFC.
Thiago by decision
Gleison Tibau (26-9) vs. John Cholish (8-2) – lightweight
The level of fighting should definitely start heating up at this point as these two lightweights will meet in a very pivotal fight for both. Tibau is a UFC mainstay who can compete with the best of them, but he is 1-2 in his last three fights and he can’t afford to lose this one to Cholish if he wants to extend his stay. Tibau is a huge and powerful lightweight, and he should be able to use his strength to control Cholish and stay out of danger.
Cholish is very strong on the ground, and he will need all of his technique to gain the upper hand on a beast like Tibau. Cholish had an eight-fight winning streak snapped in his last fight with a loss to Danny Castillo. A submission is his only chance, but I don’t see him being able to get it to the ground.
Tibau by decision
Francisco Trinaldo (12-2) vs. Mike Rio (9-1) – lightweight
This is a very intriguing battle between two Ultimate Fighter alums who are looking to make a bold move in this tough division. Trinaldo is a huge lightweight and his weight cut and replenishment success will be a huge key in this fight. If a success, Trinaldo will simply be too big for Rio to handle wherever the fight goes. Trinaldo hung in against Gleison Tibau despite his decision loss and then he handled C.J. Keith with relative ease.
Rio is coming off an impressive win in his debut against John Cofer, where he showed a solid chin and heart, along with his grappling skills. Rio uses wrestling as the key to his entire game, but I wonder whether he will be able to get the upper hand on a beast like Trinaldo at all. I think he will certainly empty his tank trying and fatigue will create an opening for Trinaldo.
Trinaldo by second-round TKO
Hacran Dias (21-1) vs. Nik Lentz (23-5) – featherweight
The final fight of the preliminary card was supposed to pit Dias against Manny Gamburyan in very important fight in the division. Nik Lentz steps in for an injured Gamburyan for a big opportunity to cement his status as a real contender. Lentz has been spectacular since his move down to featherweight last August. Lentz has developed his game nicely since coming in primarily as a wrestler. He got a dominant win over Diego Nunes in his last fight to put himself here.
Dias made a huge impression in his debut win over card mate Yuri Alcantara, and should be the more dangerous to finish this fight. He may struggle to control a wrestler like Lentz and that could be his downfall. If Dias can’t gain position on Lentz this could be a very one-sided and lacklustre affair. I look for Lentz to control Dias all night long.
Lentz by decision
Dwight Wakabayashi is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report UFC and regular contributor to Sportsnet.ca’s UFC section. Follow him on Twitter @wakafightermma.
