With the highly-anticipated showdown between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier delayed until early next year, UFC president Dana White has mentioned a couple of times that he likes the idea of a matchup between light-heavyweight contenders Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson, who currently sit at No. 1 and No. 5, respectively, in the official UFC rankings.
The bout makes sense from a “well they both need fights” standpoint, given that Gustafsson has been bumped from his rematch with Jones and Johnson just brutalized Brazilian veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira last month to put the fear of God into everyone else in the 205-pound ranks.
But given the current landscape and the fact Jones and Cormier won’t throw down until January at the earliest, there is more to be gained by keeping these two apart for the time being and getting two main event calibre contests instead.
Rather than focusing on the short-term returns, the UFC needs to be taking the long view on this, projecting what could happen with the light-heavyweight title and building their plans for “The Mauler” and “Rumble” from there.
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If Cormier pulls off the upset and manages to dethrone “Bones,” an immediate rematch will be put together before both parties have exited the Octagon. Knowing that Cormier will eventually need surgery to repair a minor knee issue he’s dealing with, an early, hypothetical projection for Cormier-Jones II would be the annual Fourth of July show in Las Vegas, which would be bonkers.
Even if Jones retains and extends his winning streak to 12, the earliest he would likely return (provided he doesn’t incur any more injuries in the fight) would be three or four months later. Knowing the way the UFC likes to book big shows for holiday weekends, projecting a Memorial Day Weekend return for the 27-year-old titleholder feels like a safe bet.
With each of those possible scenarios in mind, why burn one of two potential challengers that fans are genuinely interested in seeing compete against the best the division has to offer before knowing how things play out between Cormier and Jones?
A Cormier win extends the timeline for title shots for everyone else by at least six months, while a successful defence by Jones means it’s still May at the earliest that either Gustafsson or Johnson would be challenging for the title anyway. A great deal can happen in the time before a fight actually hits the Octagon and keeping Johnson and Gustafsson away from each other (at least for now) would give the UFC far more options to work with going forward.
First and foremost, both men are capable of handling main event assignments on a FOX card or serving as the co-main event on a pay-per-view card, which means instead of having one potentially great fight that eliminates a contender in a shallow division, you get two quality fights and two quality contenders.
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As discussed earlier this week, pairing Johnson with Ryan Bader would make sense. The Team Blackzilians member even suggested to ufc.com that’s the fight he wants next. Bader is fresh off a headlining assignment on a UFC Fight Night card, has a solid name thanks to being a TUF winner and extended stay in the Top 10, and regardless of who emerges victorious, the UFC has a fresh contender to place into a title eliminator fight if necessary.
Though Gustafsson has balked at the idea of fighting anyone other than Jones at this point, the UFC has a way of being persuasive in these situations, but rather than pairing him with Johnson, what about a matchup with former champion Rashad Evans when he’s ready to return? “Suga” is coming off back-to-back wins over Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen, and needs a major victory like this in order to put himself back in the title hunt, while Gustafsson gets a marquee matchup and the opportunity to stay active while waiting his turn.
Booking these two fights for late 2014 or early 2015 gives the UFC time to see what happens with Jones and Cormier without leaving themselves in a position where a firmly established challenger potentially has to fight again because Cormier came away with the belt and he and Jones have a rematch.
You could argue Gustafsson is in that position now, but matching him up with Johnson at this point would simply compound the problem.
This way of thinking isn’t applicable exclusively to this division and these two fighters either. In fact, thinking two or three fights down the line should be a key component in how Joe Silva and Sean Shelby go about determining different matchups regardless of weight class or where a fighter stands in the rankings.
That’s not to say they don’t already consider these things — Silva and Shelby are the best for a reason and usually hit for extra bases in the matchmaking department.
Of course, there are always times where the short-term gain appears to be the bigger concern as well, and those are the situations the UFC needs to minimize.
As much as the fan in me is through the roof with excitement about the recently-announced matchup between Donald Cerrone and newly-acquired former Bellator champ Eddie Alvarez, it’s a situation where you’re automatically burning an asset in a division that is quickly becoming devoid of top-end options.
Because Anthony Pettis (and Gilbert Melendez) have been sidelined for an extended period and Benson Henderson has been doing what he does against everyone not named Anthony Pettis (read: winning fights), the list of legitimate contenders in the 155-pound weight class is down to Henderson, Khabib Nurmagomedov and the winner of this Cerrone-Alvarez fight.
Again, why drop Cerrone or Alvarez from that list when you could have easily moved forward with “Cowboy” fighting Bobby Green and paired Alvarez with someone like Jorge Masvidal, Ross Pearson or Edson Barboza for his initial appearance in the Octagon?
While building consensus top contenders is great in theory, in practice, it’s better to have options and if the UFC decides to book Gustafsson against Johnson, they’re limiting their options.
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