By Dwight Wakabayashi
The light-heavyweight title is on the line at UFC 159 from New Jersey as champion Jon Jones will battle challenger Chael Sonnen in the main event of the night. It will be very interesting to see if Sonnen can make this a fight as many believe that he earned this fight with his mouth rather than his fighting skill.
The rest of the card is filled with stars and contenders from almost every division fighting for big stakes, including Michael Bisping vs. Alan Belcher in a match that has been brewing for years and big boys Roy Nelson and Cheick Kongo in a possible slugfest.
Here is my complete main card breakdown.
Jim Miller (22-4) vs. Pat Healy (29-16) – lightweight
After one fight in the UFC some seven years ago, veteran Pat Healy makes his return to the Octagon and gets tough contender Jim Miller as a welcome. Miller is coming off a Fight of the Year in his win over Joe Lauzon at the end of December. Facing a Strikeforce import seems to be a step down from Lauzon but Healy’s resume speaks for itself and Miller better be ready to use everything in his tool box to win.
Both these men like to fight down and dirty with wrestling and submissions the keys to success. Miller has faced tougher opponents in recent years and that should keep him one step ahead of Healy all night. The winner here is right in the mix with the top contenders in one of the toughest divisions in the UFC.
Phil Davis (10-1) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (10-5) – light heavyweight
This is a great match-up between two young stars climbing the light-heavyweight ladder. Magalhaes is simply one of the best pure jiu-jitsu players in the entire world and he asked for this fight with Davis. I am not sure it was such a good idea to call out an athletic specimen like Davis coming off a win over Igor Pokrajac and Davis is a large step up. Magalhaes is on a six-fight win streak but only one has been in the UFC.
Davis is a beast of an athlete who has only lost to Rashad Evans in his eleven-fight career. He has used explosiveness and takedowns to run through some very tough fighters like Alexander Gustafsson, Tim Boetsch and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Davis has improved his all-around MMA game and has more than enough to win this fight. Davis is currently ranked No. 8 in the UFC Official Rankings and a win here will set him up for the biggest fight of his career.
Roy Nelson (18-7) vs. Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) – heavyweight
A very intriguing heavyweight scrap is on the card between two fighters who can’t seem to make that next step up in the division. Nelson is coming off back-to-back knockouts over Matt Mitrione and Dave Herman, and he must do the same to Kongo if he wants a contender fight later this year. Nelson has major power in his right hand and he throws it to hurt every single time he loads. He is also a formidable grappler and that could be his best advantage over the French striker.
Kongo is stuck in heavyweight gatekeeper status and this is a very pivotal fight for his future marketability and fan interest. His striking is always his strength and he is a never-say-die type of fighter. He has also shown an improved clinch and close game recently but I don’t think he will want to be in tight quarters much with Nelson. If Kongo wins he can get himself out of the gatekeeper chair and right back in to a contender fight later this year.
Michael Bisping (23-5) vs. Alan Belcher (18-7) – middleweight
This one has some real bad blood brewing leading up to it as these two have been trash talking each other for years. The collision course has finally come and both men are desperate to remain above each other in the middleweight title picture. Bisping failed to secure a title shot with his knockout loss to Vitor Belfort in January, and now seems to be the middleweight gatekeeper. A convincing win over Belcher will dispel any notion that The Count is on the downside of his career. He needs to stay inside the range of Belcher’s Muay Thai and pepper hands to his face as his key to victory.
Belcher has wanted this fight for some time now and he finally gets his chance to become a top contender in the division with a convincing win. Belcher has a very good all-around game but has failed to succeed against the upper echelon and his two losses to Yushin Okami are the perfect example. Belcher was unable to stop Okami from taking him down but his saving grace here is that Bisping likes to stay on his feet.
I think Belcher is on his way up and Bisping on his way down the 185-pound ladder.
Jon Jones (17-1) vs. Chael Sonnen (27-12) – light heavyweight championship
Depending on whom you ask, this one could be a cake walk for Jones or it could be the toughest fight of his career to date. Such is the enigma that is challenger Chael Sonnen. History and the numbers say that Sonnen and his wrestling prowess have no business being in the cage with Jones, and he has talked his way into this fight. I tend to agree with that but some of Sonnen’s best performances have come with the odds stacked against him.
Jones does it all in the cage, and with is frame and athleticism, he does it all at the highest possible level of efficiency. His game is dangerous on every level and a finish is never far away whenever he is in the cage. He can end this fight in an instant and that is completely the opposite of Sonnen’s game. Sonnen relies on slowly but surely breaking you down and sapping your will with his relentless top game. I don’t think he can do it to Jones for five full rounds without staying out of harm’s way.
A Jones win will send Sonnen deep into Urijah Faber status, which means good enough to beat everybody but the champions. This may be the last title shot of Sonnen’s career.
Dwight Wakabayashi is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report UFC and regular contributor to Sportsnet.ca’s UFC section. Follow him on Twitter @wakafightermma.
