Wakabayashi: UFC 159 undercard breakdown

Cody McKenzie takes on Leonard Garcia. (AP/David Becker)

UFC 159 Preliminary Card Preview and Predictions

By Dwight Wakabayashi

UFC 159 is set to go off this weekend from New Jersey with unstoppable light heavyweight champion Jon Jones putting his title on the line against controversial challenger Chael Sonnen in the main event.

Before the five fight main card kicks off, the preliminary card is set for some fast action from the lighter weight classes with Steven Siler, Leonard Garcia, Cody McKenzie and Johnny Bedford all in action. The women will be showcased as well with Sara McMann putting her undefeated record on the line against Shelia Gaff.

Watch UFC 159 preliminary fights Saturday on Sportsnet. First, three early online prelims will air on sportsnet.ca starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the four-fight main card on Sportsnet East, Ontario, West and Pacific at 8 p.m. ET.

Here is my UFC 159 preliminary card preview and my fight picks to go along with it.

Steven Siler (21-10) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (9-1) – featherweight

Holobaugh steps in for Jim Hettes and gets a big opportunity to take on the more experienced Siler. Siler was on a nice three-win run before being derailed by Darren Elkins last November. Siler has 13 submissions in his 21 wins in the cage so it is no secret what his biggest strength is. Holobaugh gets his UFC debut fight off a Strikeforce loss to Pat Healy in January, and he likes to keep it on the ground as well. Siler is more experienced and well rounded, and I see him getting back on track.

Prediction: Siler by decision

Nick Catone (9-3) vs. James Head (9-4) – welterweight

A fight for survival in the stacked welterweight division as Catone is coming off of two straight losses and has his back against the wall. Catone will have his home crowd behind him and must prepare better in his second cut down to welterweight if he wants to be as sharp as he can. He struggled in his welterweight debut but when his body is proper he is a strong fighter in every aspect of the game.

Head is coming off a TKO loss to Mike Pyle last December and will get another chance to go on a run up the division in this fight against Catone. These two men are very evenly matched in their approach and game and both have struggled to win against the real contenders in the division. The winner gets another fight to climb up the ladder while the loser will most likely be released from the UFC.

Prediction: Head by decision

Leonard Garcia (15-10-1) vs. Cody McKenzie (13-3) – featherweight

This is a bout between two popular featherweight fighters who are looking to keep their status in the UFC. Garcia is a 33-year-old grizzled veteran of the sport who always brings wild excitement to the show but he is fighting off of four losses in a row. This is his last chance to get a win over a rising prospect and stay employed in the UFC, and he will have fight a smart and cautious fight to stay out of danger and I am not sure if that is in Garcia’s DNA.

McKenzie is a submission specialist with a deadly guillotine choke that he has altered slightly to make his own. He has used that hold to gain 11 of his 13 wins in his professional career but it hasn’t been enough to stop some of the contenders in the division like Yves Edwards, Vagner Rocha and most recently Chad Mendes. McKenzie must show improvements in his stand up and wrestling to have a chance against the truly elite in the division. Garcia’s wild and reckless approach is tailor made for a McKenzie submission.

Prediction: McKenzie by submission

Bryan Caraway (17-6) vs. Johnny Bedford (19-9-1) – bantamweight

Caraway steps in for an injured Erik Perez to set up this intriguing fight and this could turn out to be the most exciting fight on the undercard. Bedford is riding a three-fight winning streak over the likes of Frank Gomez, Louis Gaudinot and Marcus Vinicius and is looking to continue his run up the division with a dominant win over Caraway. Bedford’s pace, aggression and Muay Thai will be his key’s to victory.

Caraway is a relentless grappler whose game can wear you down and empty your tank in a hurry. He was on a nice three-fight winning streak of his own before losing a close split decision to Takeya Mizugaki in Japan in March. Caraway will want to keep this fight in tight and smother Bedford in hopes to sap his power and will and secure the finish.

Prediction: Bedford by decision

Sara McMann (6-0) vs. Sheila Gaff (10-4-1) – women’s bantamweight

Two more women will make their UFC debut this weekend as the former Olympic wrestler and undefeated professional Sara McMann will take on German Sheila Gaff. McMann is the first American woman to receive a silver medal in wrestling and it is the base of her improving MMA game. She does have three finishes in her six wins in the cage.

Gaff is a devastating finisher with an aggression and instinct to end her fights quickly, and she has six wins by knockout and four by submission and will be looking to make a statement in this fight. The winner will boost herself up in to the likes of Cat Zingano, Liz Carmouche and Miesha Tate in terms of fan recognition.

Prediction: Gaff by TKO

Gian Villante (10-3) vs. Ovince St. Preux (12-5) – light heavyweight

Two Strikeforce imports will debut and add some spice to the light heavyweight division when tough New Yorker Villante faces St. Preux. Villante is the younger of the two and is on a three-fight winning streak. He has lost to some very tough guys like Chad Griggs and Lorenz Larkin before in his career but has shown recent improvement in his game. Aggression is a big part of Villante’s game and he will need to crowd St. Preux all night.

St. Preux is reaching the twilight of his career and must make his name right now if he wants to make a run up the division. He is one fight removed from a decision loss to Gegard Mousasi, and he bounced back nicely with a knockout in August. St. Preux may not have the killer instinct that Villante brings but he has a better all-around game if he can create the space to use it.

Prediction: St. Preux by decision

Rustam Khabilov (15-1) vs. Yancy Medeiros (9-0) – lightweight

Khabilov gets bumped way up on the card for his second fight off of his highlight-reel suplex and punches TKO over Vinc Pichel in December. It was one of the best debut’s the UFC has ever seen and he gets undefeated Hawaiian Yancy Medeiros for a follow up. Khabilov trains under Greg Jackson so you know that his approach will be a smart one, and if he can find that balance between aggression and discipline, he will be a force in the division.

Strikeforce veteran Medeiros will not only make his UFC debut, he will also be making his lightweight debut. He started his career fighting as a light heavyweight and quickly shifted down to middleweight. He will be dropping down two weight classes for this fight which may not be the ideal situation for the youngster to have a smashing debut. The weight cut will be a huge factor in this fight.

Prediction: Khabilov by TKO


Dwight Wakabayashi is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report UFC and regular contributor to Sportsnet.ca’s UFC section. Follow him on Twitter @wakafightermma.

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