Trying to figure out what comes next for the winners on a UFC event held in Brazil can be tough, largely because the organization seems to be cultivating a collection of fighters to showcase in their home country.
As such, the matchups that someone morphing into the role of Joe Silva or Sean Shelby might make tend to be different than what the UFC’s matchmaking tandem sometimes cook up.
Then again, that’s part of the fun of a series like this, isn’t it — seeing how close you can come to predicting the path the UFC will put Saturday’s winners on going forward?
Here are my best ideas for what comes next for the Brazilian collective that came away from UFC on Fuel TV 10 with their hands raised in victory.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Browne/Overeem winner
Daniel Cormier is planning on moving to the light-heavyweight division after one more fight, so there is no reason to risk Werdum’s place in the pecking order against an unbeaten fighter destined to relocate.
Alistair Overeem is still one of the biggest names in the division and Travis Browne will be at his highest in terms of ranking and recognition if he’s able to defeat the former Strikeforce champion this summer on Fox Sports 1. So slotting the winner with the surging Werdum seems like the right fit.
A bout with Overeem would be a rematch of their tepid tilt in the opening round of the Strikeforce World Heavyweight Grand Prix, but my gut tells me we wouldn’t get a repeat of that outing if they battled again. Werdum’s striking – and his confidence in that area – has improved considerably since that bout, and Overeem has something to prove. Browne really is a wild card in the division right now; a fighter with the athletic ability and growing skill set to give anyone fits.
Either fight would work from a rankings standpoint, and the winner would be positioned as the clear-cut next challenger for the UFC heavyweight title.
Leonardo Santos vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
I know they fought in the semifinals of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 2, but with Santos defeating William (Patolino) Macario on Saturday after filling in for the injured Ponzinibbio, it only makes sense to rematch the two later this year and give “El Rasta” a chance to show that he was truly the best welterweight in the competition.
Santos showed his impressive ground game in tapping out Patolino, quickly transitioning to mount after he landed in side control off of a body lock takedown, and then finishing the arm-triangle choke with precision.
The Nova Uniao staple has solid experience and a quality group around him, and while he may not advance to far up the welterweight ranks, he’s already an established name in his native Brazil, so future appearances on cards in his home country are a guarantee.
As for Ponzinibbio, you can be sure that he’s chomping at the bit for a chance to showcase his skills inside the Octagon for real. A pairing with the man he beat in the TUF Brazil 2 semis should be at the top of his list of fights.
Thiago Silva vs. Ryan Bader
For the first time in almost four years, Silva looked like the fighter who was once viewed as a future contender in the light-heavyweight division. He absorbed everything Rafael (Feijao) Cavalcante had to offer early and then pounced when his Brazilian foe’s gas tank ran empty, finishing the bout with a thunderous uppercut and one more while Feijao was slumped along the cage just in case.
Now, there are a few caveats here, and they have to be declared. Each of Silva’s last two wins have been overturned due to failed drug tests, so we have to wait on those results and he needs to remain healthy. Both of those things have been major hurdles for the ferocious member of the Blackzilians, but if he can get by both without issue, a high profile pairing with Bader would be a good fit.
The former TUF winner was supposed to face Glover Teixeira last month at UFC 160, but was pulled due to an injury. Silva is an equally dangerous matchup, though his recent form isn’t as impressive as Teixeira’s.
Bader offers Silva the chance to face off with an established name on the cusp of contention, and a win would put him one step close to a title shot, a location that seemed a long way away prior to Saturday’s impressive showing.
Erick Silva vs. Mike Pyle
Fellow sportsnet.ca contributor Adam Martin suggested this pairing on Twitter following Silva’s 71-second win over Jason High, and I have to concur with my colleague. A pairing with the surging veteran Pyle is exactly what Silva needs at this stage of his career.
After stumbling a little against Jon Fitch, Silva looked tremendous against High, so a step up in competition is once again in order. Pyle has won four straight, and has the kind of experience and all-around skill set that makes him an ideal measuring stick for a prospect like Silva.
Pyle was used in that role against John Hathaway a couple years back and was scheduled to do the same against Gunnar Nelson before the Icelandic standout came down with an injury, so it’s clear the UFC likes “Quicksand” for these kinds of assignments.
I said it before his fight on Saturday and I’ll say it again here: I think Silva has top-of-the-division potential, and a fight with someone as dangerous as Pyle is precisely the kind of bout I’d like to see next for the Team Nogueira fighter.
Daniel Sarafian vs. Josh Samman
Sarafian is one of those Brazilian fighters the UFC appears to be grooming as a main card staple for their events in the country, and it makes perfect sense. He was a star on the opening season of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil and his dominant victory over the over-matched Eddie Mendez on Saturday keeps him in line for another showcase opportunity next time out.
I think Samman is the type of fighter that would willingly embrace the challenge of facing a homegrown star in Brazil and the pairing makes sense from a recent track record standpoint as well. Samman dispatched Kevin Casey in their TUF 16 finale fight and matches up well with Sarafian from a stylistic angle as well.
As much as I think Sarafian is due for a bigger step up than facing off with a fellow TUF alum, there is no reason for the UFC to rush him up the ranks. If I’m being honest, I think he’s a little undersized for middleweight, so maximizing the opportunities to push him on Brazilian events in somewhat favourable matchups is an understandable approach.
Rony (Jason) Bezerra vs. Steven Siler
Speaking of fighters the UFC will continue to route into winnable fights in Brazil…
Jason looked outstanding on Saturday, quickly dispatching Mike Wilkinson with a slick triangle choke that, admittedly, the British featherweight did a poor job defending.
That said, the wildly popular Brazilian has now won three straight in the UFC, has a massive following in his home country, and continues to show that he’s a talented fighter each time he steps into the cage.
While I think the UFC will continue to handle Jason with the matchmaking equivalent of kid gloves, he clearly needs a step up at this point and Siler fits the bill.
Siler is coming off a gritty win over Kurt Holobaugh and has gone 4-1 since emerging from The Ultimate Fighter14. Trekking to Brazil and beating a surging star-in-the-making would be a big feather in his cap, so I could very much see the Pit Elevated athlete accepting this kind of pairing if offered.
As for Jason, it gives him a chance to get a win over a more established name, and could serve as a fight that carries him from the UFC’s Brazilian circuit to bigger fight cards in North America.
