So much for being rewarded for finishing as the No. 1 overall seed.
Louisville may have finished with 10 straight wins to end the season but won’t be getting an easy road to the Final Four with a loaded top four including Duke, Michigan State and Saint Louis.
Duke and Michigan State have been two of the most consistent tournament teams in the past decade and St. Louis, who has been playing with raw emotion since former head coach Rick Majerus died in December, is one of the strongest No. 4 seeds in the field.
There isn’t a comparable group in terms of coaching prowess with legends such as Louisville’s Rick Pitino, MSU’s Tom Izzo and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski all in one region. The three have six national championships between them.
Pitino’s squad is the early favourite but this won’t be a cakewalk to Atlanta.
The Favourites:
Louisville came into the season a popular pre-season pick but after a slow start in conference play, the Cardinals caught fire down the stretch, winning the Big East tournament and finishing as the top-overall seed.
Pitino’s squad includes most of the same group that made a Final Four appearance last season and is one of the best all-around defensive teams in the country. They feature an electric group of guards in Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, who was their leading scorer with 18.1 points per game.
If Louisville’s three-point shooting becomes problematic, the best bet may be a battle-tested team like Duke — who had a significantly better record with senior forward Ryan Kelly in the lineup.
Duke, who are experienced with two seniors in the frontcourt (Kelly and Mason Plumlee), have one of the most-balanced offensive attacks with five players averaging more than 10 points per game.
Duke had the resume to be a No. 1 seed and many were surprised when the Blue Devils were lined up with the Cardinals.
The Darkhorse:
If there is a team that can make some noise as a lower seed, it could be the Creighton Blue Jays who feature one of the most explosive offences in the region.
Doug McDermott can score from all over the court and he is surrounded by an efficient group of three-point shooters (Ethan Wragge, Austin Chatman, Avery Dingman) that can cause some havoc in the early rounds.
Creighton does not play much defence and won’t have an easy draw with Cincinnati and (potentially) Duke in their first two games but if McDermott and the outside shooters are on, this team can make a surprising run to the Sweet 16.
Best opening round matchup:
Missouri is looking to avenge last year’s surprising early exit but won’t have an easy go-round with a first-round matchup against Colorado State.
Colorado State plays tough, hard-nosed defence and are one of the top rebounding teams in the field. The matchup between Colorado State big man Colton Iverson and the duo of Alex Oriaki and Laurence Bowers from Missouri could be one of the highlights of the Round of 64.
The key for Missouri may be guard Phil Pressley, who is the kind of streaky scorer and playmaker that the Rams may not have an answer for.
Best bet for an upset
It was shocking to see the Oregon Ducks seeded so low (No. 12) by the NCAA Tournament committee.
Oklahoma State has to be unhappy with their opening round matchup as the Pac 12 tournament champions are a much-improved group with a healthy Dominik Artis — Oregon won 21 of 25 games with the freshman point guard in the lineup. Without Artis, the Ducks were just 5-4.
The 12-5 upset has been a popular trend in the NCAA Tournament for years and a red-hot, angry Oregon team certainly fits the bill.
Players to watch
Doug McDermott, Creighton — The Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year is the best scorer in the region as he averaged 23.1 points per game on 56.1 per cent shooting.
Peyton Siva, Louisville — Guard play is essential in tournament play and Siva shined in the 2012 Big East tournament and in NCAA tournament wins over Florida, Michigan State, and New Mexico last year.
Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State — Smart is an electric scorer and was the third-ever freshman to win the Big 12 Player of Player (Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley).