The cold days of winter have almost passed us by but if you are looking for a reason to park yourself in front of the television, look no further than March Madness.
You’re a Canadian, so you’re likely going to take a pass on that idea but you are going to be harassed into entering the year’s best office pool. So in case you need a tip or two, here is my annual advice on how to fill out your bracket.
A year ago, the favourite (Kentucky) won the pool outright — a rare-ish occurrence — but this year, there seem to be a whole gaggle of teams who could be cutting down the nets after the championship game on April 8th.
The pool winner will not be decided on the opening weekend but you certainly can lose it so here are a couple of tips to help you through Rounds 2 and 3.
As soon as you are handed your bracket, take the No. 1 seed in each region and advance them two rounds. Then take the No. 2 seed in each region and advance them one round. This rule held true to form again last year.
Yes, you need to take a few underdogs but save your Houdini-like picks for lower seeds or later rounds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the opening round and only four No. 2 seeds have been taken down in Round 1.
The last time a No. 15 seed won a game was back in 2001 when Hampton knocked off Iowa State.
There have been a couple of wrinkles added over recent years that need to be kept in mind, the first of which is the play-in game or the “first” round.
Two years ago, VCU knocked off USC on the first Tuesday of the tournament and rode that momentum to a shocking Final Four appearance.
So which team could be this year’s VCU?
St. Mary’s would be the best bet but I am still going to chalk that VCU run up to being an aberration.
In 2002, the NCAA introduced the pod system in the first round which places heavier seeds into arenas nearby their home locales. They did this in order to fill arenas but it can be quite a disadvantage for some.
The most curious placement in this year’s tourney is Syracuse. They are seeded fourth in the East Region but will play their opening games in San Jose. Round 1 shouldn’t be an issue against 13th-seeded Montana but they are ripe for an upset in Round 2 as they will be facing the winner of the UNLV-California match-up on their home turf.
After you advance the top seeds, start looking at the No. 8-9 seed games. This is where you should see a couple of minor upsets as well. In the past, 54 per cent of No. 9 seeds have advanced, although the last two years they went 1-for-4. Now, as the seed gets higher, there is less likelihood that the team will win; however, besides the aforementioned 8-9 game there is one other exception to that rule.
There have been 112 first-round games for each seed since the current format of the tournament was adopted back in 1985. The No. 12 seed has won 38 times and the No. 11 seed has won 38 times. Even odds. Now, here is where a new wrinkle in the plan will help you out: If you are stuck at which team to select when you feel as though two teams are evenly matched, there are a couple of web sites that can help you in your decision-making.
The most obvious one would be to check the gambling lines. Vegas bookmakers put more study into this than you do so they may be able to help you one way or the other. That being said, you need to remember that the goal of bookmakers is to make sure that both sides bet evenly, not necessarily to make certain that they get the score right. So if a public (popular team with casual bettors) team like Duke or Kentucky is involved, you know they are going to push the line higher than it need be in some cases in order to get the total money waged to go closer to even.
Sometimes seeing how the betting lines have moved will also give you a good idea on how to make your picks as well.
Confused yet?
Another site worth checking out is kenpom.com. This is a statistical-based site which has gained some notoriety in the college basketball world over recent seasons as Ken Pomeroy has been right about 73 per cent of the time. I wouldn’t ask you to crunch the numbers unless you are really good with them, but I would suggest that the rankings may help make your decision if you are in a pickle.
Right now, Pomeroy’s site ranks Florida as the nation’s best followed closely by the tournament’s top team in Louisville.
While Pomery’s stats favour Florida, the Vegas bookmakers are behind Pitino’s Cardinals (9-2) who are followed by Indiana (7-1) and Duke (8-1). Gonzaga, the No .1 ranked team in the polls is getting very little respect from either.
This brings me back to another important rule: a non-BCS school hasn’t won a title since UNLV back in 1990. Now, if you don’t know what a BCS school is, I will allow you in on another little helpful site called Google.
While I would love for you to be a rebel and take an outsider to win the whole shebang, the fact is a No. 1 seed has won five of the last six tourneys.
The bottom line is: anyone can win your office pool and more than likely I will lose mine. So take my advice with a grain of salt as you try to come out on top.