Underdog bettors and those predicting a knockout will make a fortune this weekend if Floyd Mayweather does something he has never done in 45 professional fights.
That is, to lose.
But the odds are stacked high against that outcome, regardless of the toughness of challenger Marcos Maidana. As of Wednesday, Maidana was a 6-1 underdog and he was as high as 8-1 at other books monitored by sportsnet.ca’s line partner OddsShark.com.
Mayweather, chasing Rocky Marciano’s perfect 49-0 mark, opened at minus-1400 at one sportsbook and is currently minus-1000 at Bodog. That means a profit of $1 for every $10 wagered, which is a lot of risk for not a lot of reward.
Bettors love underdogs but is there much value in backing the long shot when 45 other men have failed?
"Mayweather is by far the biggest draw in boxing betting and his fights typically produce as much betting interest as three Manny Pacquiao fights," Jack Randall of OddsShark.com said.
"And sportsbooks usually end up cheering for Floyd to win by decision, because so much of the betting handle is on the underdog and long-shot bets on knockouts."
The odds are much better to back Mayweather to win by a 12-round decision. That bet was minus-225 earlier this week and may move lower closer to Saturday.
In fact, eight of his past 10 fights have gone the distance, including the last three against Saul Alvarez, Robert Guerrero and Miguel Cotto.
Bettors who think the fight will be stopped earlier can pocket a 2/1 payoff (as OVER 11.5 rounds was paying plus-200 midweek).
Maidana (35-3) was a 3/1 underdog against then-undefeated Adrien Broner back in December. He knocked Broner down twice, taking the WBA Welterweight title by unanimous decision.
The Argentine has 31 knockouts in his 35 wins, but none have come against fighters as skilled defensively as Mayweather.
The undercard features Carlos Molina (17-1-1) as a huge plus-1400 underdog against aforementioned Broner and Amir Khan (who defeated Molina 18 months ago) was minus-260 against Luis Collazo.