Look around the NFL and you’d be hard-pressed to find a franchise facing more pressure to win it all right now than the Buffalo Bills.
Through most of the first four weeks of the season, Buffalo looked every bit the dominant club that nearly swept championship prediction panels one year ago. They rebounded from their season-opening blunder against the Jets with a string of three dominant wins that saw them outscore the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins by a combined 123-33. Quarterback Josh Allen’s perfect game against Miami served as the exclamation point and a reminder that despite attempts by the rest of the AFC East to muscle up, the back-to-back-to-back division champs deserve the top spot again.
But then Week 5 came along and with it a skid of two losses in their last three games — or, rather, two losses and a win against the New York Giants that looked a lot like a loss. And with it, some troubling trends have emerged. While the loss of two major defensive players — cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively — have played major roles in defensive downfalls, the offence is another story.
And that offence is about to get its close-up. Starting Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo’s next three matchups take place on the prime-time stage, suiting up in Cincinnati for Sunday Night Football in Week 9 followed by a home date against Denver on Monday Night Football in Week 10.
So, what exactly is going wrong with the Bills right now?
“I wish I knew the exact answer because we’d have it fixed by now,” Allen told reporters following Sunday’s stunning upset against the one-win New England Patriots.
Said head coach Sean McDermott: “We’ve got to find reasons why we’re stubbing our toes.”
Sitting at 4-3 heading into Week 8, it’s too early to sound the alarm bells but it’s clear Buffalo is entering a real turning point of the season already. Before we find out what comes next, here’s a closer look at what’s gone wrong of late — and what the Bills must remedy starting Thursday night against the Buccaneers.
Through the first four games of the season, the Bills were building a habit of hot starts. They got on the board in the first quarter of each of those games, opening the scoring three times and registering a touchdown in the first quarter in all but one of those first four matchups. Against the Dolphins in Week 4, they put up two touchdowns in the first frame, their offence so hot they scored TDs on their first four drives of the game.
The past three games, however, have revealed a very different Bills offence. Buffalo has been shut out in the first quarter of each of their last three games, outscored by a combined 24-0 in the first frames. The first-half numbers overall are almost just as bleak — Buffalo has managed to score just 10 points in the first half of those three games combined. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5, the Bills found themselves 11 points back before they got on the board with Stefon Diggs’ touchdown at the end of the second quarter.
Against the Giants in prime time in Week 6, Buffalo was shut out through the first three quarters. Week 7 saw the Patriots, whose offence had been nearly non-existent in prior weeks, jump out to an early 10-point start. Allen threw an interception in Buffalo’s first possession, leading to an early Patriots TD and putting the Bills behind the eight ball early for the third straight week.
There’s no denying Allen’s talent. When in control of a game, he’s one of the very best. But when playing with a deficit, Allen’s penchant to push for the big play can land his team in trouble. And it’s clear, in the past few weeks, he’s not always in control.
While the QB is known more for his big arm and ability to make magic playing backyard ball than his rapid-fire release times as a pocket passer, the numbers show he’s holding onto the ball longer than usual of late.
In the Bills’ past three matchups, Allen has recorded his slowest release times: In Week 7, which saw the Patriots throw pressure after pressure his way, Allen averaged 3.26 seconds between the snap and his throw, which was the slowest in the league last week. Weeks 5 and 6 also saw him post release times over three seconds. In a game of inches and milliseconds, this pace is a far cry from his usual, which hovers around 2.87 seconds on average.
This isn’t all on Allen, of course. As we saw against New England, the Bills’ offensive line is letting opponents pressure the QB at rates far too high while Allen’s weapons — with the exception of Diggs — aren’t winning their battles.
Allen told reporters Tuesday, "... maybe I need to think a little bit less and just play football."
The Bills’ recent struggles make it easy to overlook some of the good things happening in Buffalo — like, for example, the fact Allen is on pace to match his impressive touchdown numbers of the past few years. But it’s hard to ignore the fact he’s also on pace for a career-high in interceptions. Take Buffalo’s slow starts and add Allen’s release time, and you’ve got another cause for early concern.
All three of Buffalo’s losses this season have featured at least one pick thrown by Allen, and while his numbers are far from dire — he’s thrown seven through seven games, with three of those coming in Week 1 against the Jets and one each coming in his past three outings — it’s enough to take note.
The Bills’ upcoming schedule speaks to the expectations around them — Buffalo doesn’t play again in the 1 p.m. Sunday afternoon window until Week 17 against the Patriots. A string of late-afternoon window matchups (vs. New York Jets in Week 11, at Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12, at Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 and vs. Dallas Cowboys in Week 15) presents what is poised to be their most difficult stretch of the season. That Week 13 bye can’t come soon enough.
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