The Ontario Hockey League playoffs continue tonight with the Guelph Storm heading to Sault Ste. Marie to take on the CHL’s No. 1-ranked Greyhounds.
Here’s everything you need to know to get ready for round two.
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Western Conference
Sault Ste. Marie (1) vs. Guelph (4)
The top seed in the Western Conference, the Soo goes in as a heavy favourite based on body of work and depth of talent on the roster. (They did finish 30 points clear of Guelph.) But if you look at the regular-season head-to-head results there’s good reason to believe that the Storm will give the Greyhounds tough games.
Consider: The last three games between the teams were all won by the Soo, but they were a one-goal win in regulation, an overtime victory and an extra point taken in a shoot-out. Also consider that two of those contests featured the Soo’s roster fortified by trade-deadline deals for Nick Ritchie and Anthony DeAngelo.
Finally, factor in that Guelph played the Greyhounds that tough in those three contests even though the Storm’s catalyst—centre Robby Fabbri—wasn’t available for any of them. You’re tempted to say that Guelph would only give them a series if they get stand-on-your-head goaltending—which is what Justin Nichols gave the Storm in the last two games of the opening-round win over Owen Sound, turning aside 76 or 79 shots.
My pick: The Soo in 6
Erie (2) vs London (3)
A lot of people are expecting the OHL playoffs to be the coronation of Erie’s Connor McDavid, something along the lines of Sidney Crosby personally carrying Rimouski to the Memorial Cup in his draft year. Well, the Otters didn’t blow anyone away with their performance against Sarnia in the opening round—a game one loss at home to the outmatched Sting was the low point, but scouts weren’t taken by even Erie’s best games.
On the flip side, London had a more formidable challenge in round one against Kitchener and Mitch Marner, perhaps the second-most skilled player in this year’s draft class, put up sick numbers: eight goals and 15 points in six games.
The series is not exactly a match race—there is plenty of talent in the supporting cast, including London’s Max Domi and Erie’s Dylan Strome. It’s hard to bet against the Otters in this one—they might have landed the top seed if McDavid had been healthy and available all season. This is the series NHL scouts will be watching most closely—not because the No. 1 pick is in play but because of Marner and Strome.
My pick: Erie in 5
Eastern Conference
Oshawa (1) vs. Niagara (5)
Yeah, there’s the any-given-night rule and the hot-goaltender exception. And, right, in the calendar year, Niagara’s record is step-for-step with Oshawa’s. Still, it’s hard to see how Niagara can physically withstand the Generals to win more than a game or two. The Gens will lean on and punish the IceDogs, trying to and inevitably succeeding in making this a battle of attrition.
Oshawa could give Niagara a life in any game if they give up to many power-play opportunities. Josh Ho-Sang is playing at a level right now that he can create at least a chance and sometimes more on any five-on-four shift. Really, though, the Generals were a dominant team in the East and took the top seed at their leisure.
Maybe the IceDogs could steal a page from North Bay’s game plan a year ago and make this a counter-puncher’s fight. But when you roll six-foot-six Michael McCarron over the boards and the next shift send out six-foot-six Hunter Smith—and they can play—well, the IceDogs have the unenviable task of trying to counter-punch above their weight class.
My pick: Oshawa in four
Barrie (2) vs. North Bay (3)
A coin-flip series with both teams finishing with 85 points and the Colts winding up with home-ice advantage. Both are coming off sweeps, Barrie over Belleville and North Bay over flat-lining Kingston.
The Battalion made a stirring run to the OHL final last year, sweeping the favoured Oshawa Generals in the conference final and giving Guelph all it can handle in the championship series. Coach Stan Butler’s crew played a tight defensive game last year and will stick with his standard modus operandi for as far they go this year.
Compared to his team from last year, this North Bay squad looks like it has more offensive upside with Nick Paul, Mike Amadio and Ryan Kujawinski. On form, the Battalion’s goalie Jake Smith is playing better now (four goals conceded in four games and a .966 save percentage vs the Frontenacs).
Barrie’s Mackenzie Blackwood was probably more impressive, but he had to be—the very ordinary Bulls managed to get 40 and 43 shots against Barrie in game three and four in the opening round.
My pick: North Bay in 6