It’s going to be one helluva hockey game. You’ve come for the cold, hard numbers. But stick around for some good ‘ol fashioned subjective analysis.
Cold, hard facts
Subjective analysis
Goaltending
Jonathan Quick has been superb for the Americans, justifying coach Dan Bylsma’s faith in him when Ryan Miller was also a very viable option. Quick has a Stanley Cup on his resumé and his career numbers in the NHL playoffs—a .929 save percentage and 2.03 goals-against average—are spectacular. The Yanks are bringing a big-game goalie to this fight.
As for Carey Price, he’s in a really interesting spot. For years, hockey people have drooled over Price’s mix of size, positioning and athleticism. The problem is, his best showings on big stages came at the World Junior Championship and as a 19-year-old in the American Hockey League final—in other words, a long time ago, before he was a grown-up. Price’s playoff performances have been hit and miss on middling Montreal Canadiens teams. Now, he’s on a loaded club with the world watching; it’s a great platform to establish his massive-moment chops.
Edge: Team USA
Defence
If Canada’s blueline corps wasn’t producing at the rate it is, the USA would be facing someone else in the semifinal. Drew Doughty and Shea Weber have combined to score seven of Canada’s 13 goals in the tournament, with Doughty notching both scores in a 2-1 overtime win versus Finland, while a blast from Weber finally got Canada past Latvia in the quarterfinal. The Canucks really are loaded on the back end, where sublime skating is the order of the day.
To no one’s surprise, the American’s have been leaning hard on workhorse Ryan Suter, who figures to play nearly half the game against Canada. Suter and partner Ryan McDonagh will draw the toughest assignments all night. The other four guys who will see significant ice—Brooks Orpik, Paul Martin, Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk—are great players, but could be exploited if Canada’s forwards get it in gear.
Edge: Canada
Forwards
The chemistry that’s eluded Canada has shown up in spades for the Red, White and Blue. Phil Kessel leads the Games with eight points in four games, thanks largely to the fact he’s been able to carry over his connection with Toronto Maple Leafs teammate James van Riemsdyk. The pair has been centred by Joe Pavelski, who’s been the perfect man in the middle. The Americans have a terrific mix of speed and grit, with bangers like David Backes, Dustin Brown and Ryan Callahan opening up space for the likes of Kessel, Zach Parise and Patrick Kane.
Canada’s struggles up front have been well documented. Once again, finding wingers who fit with Sidney Crosby has been a tough task, despite the presence of Crosby’s Pittsburgh Penguins linemate Chris Kunitz. The line of Jonathan Toews between Jeff Carter and Patrick Marleau has been by far the best for the red and white, though Corey Perry—who’s been sniffing around the crease of late—feels like the breakout candidate. Canada’s lines look amazing on paper, but it’s time to make good on that potential.
Edge: Team USA
Everything Else
Mike Babcock is likely the most respected coach in the NHL and led Canada to gold in 2010. If all the line shuffling works out, we’ll be calling him a genius again. If not, well…
Bylsma, meanwhile, tuned his team perfectly from the beginning and beat Babcock when the Penguins met the Detroit Red Wings in an epic seven-game Stanley Cup final in 2009.
It’s tough to quantify what—if any—kind of bump you get from a bitter taste in your mouth, but you have to think the Americans have a little extra motivation after losing on Crosby’s golden goal four years ago.
In addition to 2010, these teams also faced off for gold in 2002. In each of those events, Team USA didn’t drop a single game en route to the final, while Canada scuffled early before hitting its stride. In a way, both teams could be justified in thinking, “We’ve got ’em right where we want ’em.”
Let’s drop the puck and see who’s right.