Twenty years after Peter Forsberg delivered Sweden’s first-ever Olympic gold in a shootout win over Canada, the same two hockey powers will meet for world supremacy in Sochi. We’ll start our analysis with some number-crunching, then move on to position-by-position analysis.
Goalies
Henrik Lundqvist is more accomplished than Carey Price, but that could all change come Sunday. If Canada beats Sweden, both goalies will have one gold medal and no Stanley Cups. Lundqvist, of course, was between the pipes when Sweden beat Finland 3-2 in the final eight years ago in Turin, Italy. His save percentage was actually a pedestrian .907 in that tournament, but he clearly made the saves that count. Four years ago, Lundqvist ended the Vancouver Games with a terrific 1.34 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, but allowed four goals on 14 shots as the Swedes were upset by Slovakia in the quarterfinals.
Both Lundqvist and Price have done everything asked of them in Sochi; namely, “Don’t mess things up.” Lundqvist allowed a softie versus Finland in the semifinal, but shut the door after that in a 2-1 victory. Price didn’t make a mistake in a 1-0 semifinal win over the United States. Lundqvist has been there before, Price is trying to prove this is his time. Until the champion gets knocked out, he’s still the man.
Edge: Sweden
Defence
Credit for this thought goes to my colleague, Gare Joyce, who asked over a beverage this week: If you could pick a defence corps entirely from teams that aren’t Canada at the Olympics, would it be as good as Canada’s? Honestly, I don’t even think it’s close. Canada’s blueliners have been all over the ice, in the best way possible. The latest contribution came in the form of Jay Bouwmeester’s slap pass to Jamie Benn for the only goal against Team USA. Canada’s six-man unit can blanket any forward group, plus be counted on to make significant offensive contributions.
What Sweden lacks in depth, it makes up for in explosiveness with Erik Karlsson, who is the best offensive blueliner on earth and tied for the tournament scoring lead with eight points in five games. Expect the 23-year-old to jump in on the attack whenever he gets a sniff. The Swedes also have some veteran savvy with two-time Cup winner Niklas Hjalmarsson and Niklas Kronwall, who took over as team captain when Henrik Zetterberg was forced out of the tournament with a back injury.
Still, this one isn’t even close.
Edge: Canada
Forwards
The biggest revelation of the Games might be that Daniel Sedin can play without his brother. Sedin has put up five points playing beside centre Nicklas Backstrom and right winger Loui Eriksson. The Swedes have received contributions from up and down the lineup, but the loss of Zetterberg is really devastating, especially because, as alluded to, pivot Henrik Sedin was kept out of the tournament entirely because of bruised ribs. Without Zetterberg—who played just one game in Sochi—the advantage Canada already held down the middle is exacerbated.
While Canada has yet to score more than two goals against a top-flight opponent, the forwards do seem to be finding some rhythm. Jeff Carter looks very dangerous playing alongside centre Jonathan Toews and left winger Patrick Marleau, while the line of Ryan Getzlaf between Benn and Corey Perry is equally threatening. While everyone in Canada remains perplexed over Chris Kuntiz’s inclusion on the team, he and Sidney Crosby—with Bergeron on the right side—finally got a little something going as the game versus Team USA wore on. Now they just have to bury.
Edge: Canada
Everything Else
If you’d asked me before this tournament to bet $100 on one team to make the final, I’d have laid it on Sweden. The Tre Kronor are just a bunch of pros who know how to get things done and won’t beat themselves, especially on the big ice.
That said, as is often the case at these events, Canada is getting better with each game and there’s a chance the offence suddenly engages and goes off. If Canada gets ahead early, it could pull away. If the Swedes nab the lead, expect a very smothering, efficient style of play.
As everyone knows, these two teams have won the past three Olympic gold medals, though they haven’t had much in the way of head-to-head action. In fact, this is the first time Sweden and Canada have clashed at the Games since Mats Sundin and the boys lit up Curtis Joseph and the Canucks 5-2 to open the Salt Lake City Olympics in 2002. If Canada wins this game, its reputation as hockey’s supreme power is cemented with three gold medals in four Olympics. If the Swedes win, it’s a pair apiece in the past dozen years for what are clearly the two best hockey nations going.
