There seems to be a feeling in some circles that since Miami is officially out of the MLS expansion sweepstakes, Vancouver has moved into the frontrunner position.
News flash: Vancouver has always been a frontrunner. Whether you believe it or not, Vancouver has been the league's No. 1 choice, almost since the day they submitted their bid last October. They've always had the money. They've always had a stadium plan. They've always had a strong organization. They exist in a soccer market with deep roots. Nothing has changed.
In fact since day one Vancouver has been the only application without any warts.
It has always astonished me that so many soccer people never wanted to place Vancouver anywhere near the top of the list.
It's almost as surprising as the fact that so many people thought Miami was a slam dunk. Why is that? Without the Barcelona money, this bid was going nowhere. It was never written, nor was it ever announced that the Spanish giants were willing to throw a ton of dough at this project. It was all vague talk about marketing, branding and developing players. Despite what people wanted to believe, I don't think it ever had a chance.
St. Louis doesn't have the money. Portland has nowhere decent to play, at least not yet. Ottawa's Eugene Melnyk might get his wish for a stadium in Kanata at some point. But it looks as though it's too late for this round. I wonder if the commissioner has talked to Montreal Impact owner Joey Saputo lately? I'll bet both sides are wishing they could turn back the clock and start fresh.
The league will award one franchise to Vancouver, there's no question. But what about that second franchise? St. Louis appears to be out of it. If it is Portland, what will the two conferences look like? With Seattle in the west this year, and the troubled Philadelphia franchise in the east next year (we hope), the league will have two eight-team conferences. But if Vancouver and Portland both enter the league in 2011, what then? That means 10 teams in the west, unless someone gets moved to the east. Geographically speaking, the only logical candidate would be either Houston or Dallas, and even that's a stretch. Perhaps they'd be willing to go the European route with a single 18 team table but that seems unlikely. Suddenly, bringing Montreal back to the table looks like a great solution. If both sides can find a way to save face and crack this one, the league would solve a huge problem. The bad news there is that as of this writing, the league has had no talks with the Montreal people about kick starting the process again.
Here's what I think will happen. The league will announce Vancouver as its 17th franchise sometime during the week leading up to the season opener which is March 19th. Then they'll wait. They'll wait until either Portland or Ottawa get their issues sorted out. The first one to do so wins the lottery. If neither one can make it happen, the first call will be to Montreal.
