Sportsnet's soccer panel offer their picks, predictions and analysis of the CONCACAF Women's Olympic Qualifying tournament, which runs in Vancouver from Jan. 19-29.
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STEPHEN BRUNT, Sportsnet
Who will advance: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States
Final: United States vs. Canada
Winner: United States
Analysis: Hard to see anyone else in the final four. Unlike the 2011 Women's World Cup, the scheduling should work in Canada's favour here: two easy matches to start, followed by the two matches that will decide their Olympic fate, against Costa Rica, and whichever of the United States and Mexico they draw in the semifinal.
At the World Cup, they played well in a loss to Germany, and then completely fell apart in the crucial match against France. Here, they should have a chance to continue building confidence coming off the Pan Am Games gold, while adjusting to the realities of playing at home. The side is going to look very similar to the one that played in Germany. What a lot of people will be looking at is how the coaching change from Carolina Morace to John Herdman has altered the balance. The Canadian women seemed relaxed and happy during their training camp last fall in California. Herdman doesn't have Morace's reputation as a tactical guru, but communication will be better, and the players won't be on such a tight leash. Let's see how they respond.
There's so much on the line here, not just in terms of the Olympics, but for the whole program looking forward to the 2015 World Cup. For Canada to succeed, the veterans, for whom London could be a last shot at glory, are going to have to rise to the occasion. If they reach the final against the U.S., they could push the Americans to the limit. But the two games that would come before that are both going to be tricky.
GERRY DOBSON, Soccer Central
Who will advance: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States
Final: United States vs. Canada
Winner: United States
Analysis: It’s the first acid test for new Canadian head coach John Herdman. He's determined to erase the memories of the failed World Cup project. The players will go through a wall to set things straight. It may be easier said than done as it’s not like a switch that can be turned on and off. But with the home support and a dogged determination with a new found confidence, Canada should beat Mexico in the crossover and qualify for London.
As far as a player to watch, left back Lauren Sesselman is actually an American with Canadian citizenship through her father when he was stationed in Canada with the military. This might be her coming out party as she played well under the radar where there was little attention paid at the Pan Am games. Herdman describes her as gritty, strong and an excellent defender.
KARA LANG, Sportsnet
Who will advance: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States
Final: United States vs. Canada
Winner: Canada (I think the home-field advantage could be the difference for Canada this time)
Analysis: If my predictions pan out and Canada plays Mexico in the crossover, it will be the game of the tournament. Of course, a Canada-USA final would be a wildly entertaining match -- but in this tournament, the semifinal game is the one that truly counts.
In 2004, Mexico was the only team standing between Canada and a trip to Greece. Mexico, the underdogs, came out on top and Canada kissed their Olympic dreams goodbye. In 2008 with a berth at the Beijing games on the line, it was the very same semifinal match-up that saw Canada victorious in front of a frenzied Mexican crowd in Juarez. Based on performances at last summer’s World Cup, some might say Mexico is in better form these days and the safer bet.
On the other hand, there’s no denying Canada is in the midst of a comeback and they'll have the support of the fans behind them. A Mexico-Canada semifinal battle could rival the kind of excitement we saw during the 2002 Under 19 World Cup in Edmonton.
CRAIG FORREST, Soccer Central
Who will advance: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States
Final: United States vs. Canada
Winner: Canada
Analysis: This qualifying tournament comes at a great time -- far enough from the disappointing World Cup that they've had time to do some soul searching and quick enough that they can make it a distant memory. Canada has a chance at redemption with many of the same veterans and a couple of exciting additions. In my opinion, this team is ready under the guidance of John Herdman to first qualify for the Olympics and then prove to the football world that last year’s poor performance was no more than a fluke. We will see.
Post-game show: From Jan. 19-24, log on to sportsnet.ca at 12:50 am ET each night to watch our live post-game web show, featuring a full recap and analysis of the day’s events from Sportsnet commentators in Vancouver.
CRAIG MACEWEN, Sportsnet
Who will advance: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States
Final: United States vs. Canada
Winner: Safe bet United States, but I predict Canada
Analysis: It has been quite a rise through the ranks for Canadian forward Chelsea Buckland -- from being completely off the Canadian soccer radar growing up to landing in the Olympic player pool. The Oregon State forward will be hard pressed to find quality minutes up front with the likes of Christine Sinclair and Melissa Tancredi in the squad. That said, let’s see what she can do with the opportunities presented to her --- can she become a “super-sub” and score timely goals, like she did in a friendly for Canada against Sweden back in November?
Let’s hope so for Canada’s sake. At just 21 years old, Buckland has proven she can put the ball in the back of the net scoring 28 times in three Pac-12 seasons for Oregon States.
CHRIS BLACK, sportsnet.ca
Who will advance: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States
Final: United States vs. Mexico
Winner: United States
Analysis: For everyone assuming that a Canada-United States final is a foregone conclusion, take note: Mexico was a dynamic squad at the 2011 World Cup, and has had a fair amount of success in recent CONCACAF competitions. They defeated the Americans in World Cup Qualifying in 2010, and their past two elimination matches against Canada in either World Cup or Olympic qualifying were both tight 1-0 results for the Canadians.
Mexican midfielder Teresa Noyola was named the 2011 top player in NCAA Division I soccer. A senior at Stanford, she guided her team to a national championship, and notched nine goals and 15 assists in 2011. Noyola finished her college career with three consecutive all-American selections. The 21-year old saw limited duty for Mexico during the World Cup, but expect a bigger role to be waiting for her in Vancouver.
JOHN MOLINARO, sportsnet.ca
Who will advance: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States
Final: United States vs. Canada
Winner: United States
Analysis: Like Brunt said above, it’s very hard to see anyone else in the final four.
This will be the first serious test for new Canadian coach John Herdman and will provide a barometer of how far this team has progressed under his charge since taking over the reins in September. The margin of error is very small at this tournament, and failure to qualify for the Olympics would deliver a real hammer blow to the Canadian program.
Forget about looking ahead to a potential Canada-United States final. Focus should instead be paid to a likely semifinal showdown against a pesky and improving Mexico. Canada can’t afford to take that match lightly, or stumble out of the blocks like they did against France at last year’s World Cup. Canada needs consistent and composed performances right from the start of the tournament. If they can manage that throughout the group stage, an Olympic berth will be secured.
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