The 30th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations is set to take the continent by storm on January 17, with last-minute emergency hosts Equatorial Guniea lining up against Congo in the port city of Bata.
Located in west central Africa, Equatorial Guniea co-hosted this event with Gabon in 2012. Morocco was originally slated to host the crown jewel of African football, but requested to postpone the tournament at the eleventh hour due to the Ebola virus epidemic that had gripped the continent. After four nations declined the opportunity to stage the tournament—Egypt, Ghana, South Africa and Sudan— Equatorial Guniea stepped in and effectively was given Morroco’s entry into the competition as hosts.
Surprisingly, reining champions Nigeria are absent—having failed to qualify—and therefore a new champion will be crowned on February 8. Here is a breakdown of the tournament.
GROUP A
Equatorial Guniea
Best Result: Quarterfinals (2012)
FIFA Ranking: #118
The Skinny: The realistic chances of qualification into the knockout stage are quite bleak for the lowest ranked team in the tournament—despite headlining a group that is mediocre at best. However, history has proven that it’s always dangerous to overlook any host nation. Let’s not forget Equatorial Guniea did manage to ride the wave of home support in 2012 and progress into the second round in their inaugural tournament appearance before losing to Ivory Coast in the quarterfinals.
Player to Watch: Ruben Belima (Real Madrid Castilla)
Schedule: Congo (January 17), Burkina Faso (January 21), Gabon (January 25)
Prediction: Fourth
Burkina Faso
Best Result: Runners-up (2013)
FIFA Ranking: FIFA #64
The Skinny: Les Etalons (The Stallions) surprised the continental heavyweights in 2013 with their not-so dominating march to the final, losing 1-0 to Nigeria in Johannesburg. Despite qualifying for five of the last seven tournaments, Burkina Faso had not recorded a single victory in 14 group stage matches (four draws and 10 defeats). Manager Paul Put produced a near miracle two years ago in South Africa, mainly due to a favourable group draw and path to the final—although they did beat Ghana in a dramatic semifinal penalty shootout. The road ahead this time around is a bit more precarious; don’t expect another fairy-tale repeat performance.
Player to Watch: Bertrand Traore (Vitesse Arnhem; on loan from Chelsea)
Schedule: Gabon (January 17), Equatorial Guniea (January 21), Congo (January 25)
Prediction: Second
Gabon
Best Result: Quarterfinals (1996, 2012)
FIFA Ranking: #62
The Skinny: Since co-hosting the tournament in 2012, Gabon has moved up 30 spots in the FIFA rankings after a strong performance on home soil. Les Pantheres shockingly won their group with a perfect record, beating former African champions Morocco and Tunisia. A heartbreaking defeat on penalties to Mali may have ended their participation, but overall it was a positive step forward. Unfortunately, they missed out in 2013, having lost to Togo in a two-legged qualifier. Gabon may possess the ace-in-the-hole with front-man Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The Dortmund striker has scored 11 times this season and is of a higher standard than any of his counterparts in the group.
Player to Watch: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Borussia Dortmund)
Schedule: Burkina Faso (January 17), Congo (January 21), Equatorial Guniea (January 25)
Prediction: First
Congo
Best Result: Champions (1972)
FIFA Ranking: #61
The Skinny: This will be the Red Devils’ first appearance in 41 years, having been banned from every tournament since for the majority of their four decade long exile. Technically, Congo shouldn’t even be here at all, after losing their second round qualifier to Rwanda in a penalty shootout. However, they were awarded the victory due to their opponents fielding an ineligible player. Despite being drawn into a qualifying group that included reigning champions Nigeria and South Africa, the Congolese snatched the last qualifying place—the standout performance being a shocking 3-2 victory in Nigeria. It was the Super Eagles’ first defeat in 47 home matches since qualifying started 48 years ago.
Player to Watch: Delvin N’Dinga (Olympiacos)
Schedule: Equatorial Guniea (January 17), Gabon (January 21), Burkina Faso (January 25)
Prediction: Third
GROUP B
Zambia
Best Result: Champions (2012)
Ranking: #50
The Skinny: Zambian football will forever be associated with the 1993 Gabon air disaster which wiped out the entire squad. It took almost two decades, but Zambia’s remarkable journey en-route to be crowned champions of Africa in 2012—the Chipolopolo’s first title—not only sent shockwaves across the continental football landscape, but more importantly signalled a new chapter in the nation’s football history. The architect of Zambia’s success was Herve Renard, but after a poor showing in defence of their crown the following year, the Frenchman stepped down as manager. Honour Janza is now in charge; the Zambian-born manager succeeded in getting the team this far, though, manoeuvring through this tough group will be quite difficult given his inexperience in the dugout.
Player to Watch: Emmanuel Mayuka (Southampton)
Schedule: DR Congo (January 18), Tunisia (January 22), Cape Verde (January 26)
Prediction: Fourth
Tunisia
Best Result: Champions (2004)
FIFA Ranking: #22
The Skinny: Under the guidance of Belgian Georges Leekens, the Eagles of Carthage cruised through qualification unscathed without much adversity along the way. Tunisia won their group with an undefeated record (four wins and two draws)—beating seven-time African champions Egypt home and away. Despite being group favourites—in regards to their FIFA ranking—obstacles loom large and it definitely won’t be as easy. However, Leekens has thus far found a way to get the best out of his players and they’ve all seemed to have bought into his system.
Player to Watch: Wahbi Khazri (Bordeaux)
Schedule: Cape Verde (January 18), Zambia (January 22), DR Congo (January 26)
Prediction: First
Cape Verde
Best Result: Quarterfinals (2013)
FIFA Ranking: #40
The Skinny: Lisbon-born former Portuguese international Rui Aguas has rather seamlessly picked up where ex-coach Luis Antunes left off, as the Blue Sharks were one of the first two teams to qualify. Cape Verde made their first tournament appearance in 2013, and did very well to reach the quarterfinals. Heading into their first major international event, Cape Verde was ranked #70 by FIFA. Since then, they’ve climbed 30 places. Not too bad for a country with a population of just over a half-million inhabitants. Cape Verde is deservedly one of the group favourites, though anything more than a successive quarterfinal appearance will be a resounding overachievement.
Player to Watch: Fernando Varela (Steaua Bucharest)
Schedule: Tunisia (January 18), DR Congo (January 22), Zambia (January 26)
Prediction: Second
DR Congo
Best Result: Third Place (1998)
FIFA Ranking: #57
The Skinny: The Leopards returned to the big-time in 2013, but the end result fell extremely short of expectations. It was three and done in South Africa, as DR Congo drew all three of their group matches and swiftly exited the tournament. It was the nation’s first participation in the continental competition since losing to eventual champions Egypt in the 2006 quarterfinals. Expectations must be kept in check this time around. This is a formidable group with decent competition for places, as the four teams are fairly even in quality. For DR Congo to progress, the creativity of Yannick Bolasie and the scoring prowess of Dieumerci Mbokani are essential to the Leopards’ cause.
Player to Watch: Yannick Bolasie (Crystal Palace)
Schedule: Zambia (January 18), Cape Verde (January 22), Tunisia (January 26)
Prediction: Third
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GROUP C
Ghana
Best Result: Champions (1963, 1965, 1978, 2000, 2008)
FIFA Ranking: #37
The Skinny: The five-time African champions are highly regarded and always one of the tournament favourites. However, make no mistake, the Black Stars have been drawn into the dreaded group of death—every fixture will be a dogfight. Former Chelsea manager Avram Grant was handed the reins at the end of November following James Kwesi Appiah’s departure. Ultimately, Ghana secured qualification before the Israeli’s appointment, though the manner in which they punched their ticket to Africa’s showpiece event was adequate at best. A fresh approach was definitely needed, as the Black Stars seemed to have hit the ceiling under Appiah. Grant’s no stranger to international football, having previously managed Israel (2002-06), but it will be interesting to see how his style of play and methodology translates in Africa.
Player to Watch: Christian Atsu (Everton; on loan from Chelsea)
Schedule: Senegal (January 19), Algeria (January 23), South Africa (January 27)
Prediction: Second
Algeria
Best Result: Champions (1990)
FIFA Ranking: #18
The Skinny: The Desert Warriors arrive in Equatorial Guinea as the number one ranked African side, in large part due to their positive showing at last summer’s World Cup. Under newly appointed coach Christian Gourcuff, the Algerians easily swept through the qualification process—winning five straight before dropping their meaningless final fixture. The group of death will be a great test of the team’s overall character. Two years ago in South Africa, they quickly crashed out at the group stage with disappointing defeats to Tunisia and Togo. Without question success or failure hinges on a strong performance by 2014 BBC African Footballer of the Year Yacine Brahimi.
Player to Watch: Yacine Brahimi (FC Porto)
Schedule: South Africa (January 19), Ghana (January 23), Senegal (January 27)
Prediction: First
South Africa
Best Result: Champions (1996)
FIFA Ranking: #52
The Skinny: Bafana Bafana were crowned African champions on home soil in 1996, followed by another finals appearance in 1998, and a third place showing two years later. But since those glory days the national side hasn’t come close to their previous success. A quarterfinal penalty shootout defeat to Mali in Durban in 2013 ended any dreams of celebrating a second title on their home turf. South Africa appointed Ephraim Mashaba as coach last July—replacing Gordon Igesund—having previously been in charge of Bafana Bafana from 2002 to 2004. This will be his first tournament after being sacked on the eve of the 2004 edition. South Africa ended qualification with an undefeated record—three wins and three draws—in a group that included reigning champions Nigeria.
Player to Watch: Tokelo Rantie (Bournemouth)
Schedule: Algeria (January 19), Senegal (January 23), Ghana (January 27)
Prediction: Third
Senegal
Best Result: Runners-up (2002)
FIFA Ranking: #35
The Skinny: It’s been almost 13 years since Senegal’s memorable victory over France to kick off the 2002 World Cup. Six months before being catapulted onto the global stage, the Lions of Teranga gave a glimpse of their quality at the African Cup of Nations, beating Egypt, Tunisia and Nigeria on the road to the final. Unfortunately, the success was short lived, and the so-called golden generation came and went. The current version isn’t much better, though qualification was achieved without much adversity. Senegal even won both of their encounters with seven-time champions Egypt, effectively knocking out one of the tournament’s heavy-hitters. Had they been drawn into a weaker group Senegal would have a decent shot at the next round. The job at hand for coach Alain Giresse will be a good test of character for his side.
Player to Watch: Sadio Mane (Southampton)
Schedule: Ghana (January 19), South Africa (January 23), Algeria (January 27)
Prediction: Fourth
GROUP D
Ivory Coast
Best Result: Champions (1992)
FIFA Ranking: #28
The Skinny: The Ivorians are perrennial underachievers in the competition, despite always being odds on favourites to lift the title. Qualification was a close three-horse race, with Cameroon winning the group and DR Congo progressing as the best third placed team. Les Elephants were anything but spectacular and the team is still searching for an identity under new manager Herve Renard. He does have the luxury to call upon the Premier League’s highest scoring striker in Wilfried Bony and midfielder Yaya Toure. It’s also a bonus that the Bony transfer saga ended before the tournament and won’t be an unwanted distraction, with the former Swansea City hit-man moving to Manchester City this week for a whopping £28 million.
Player to Watch: Wilfried Bony (Swansea City)
Schedule: Guinea (January 20), Mali (January 24), Cameroon (January 28)
Prediction: First
Mali
Best Result: Runners-up (1972)
FIFA Ranking: #49
The Skinny: Mali is coming off back-to-back third placed finishes, but qualification wasn’t quite smooth sailing, as the nation went into its final fixture with no guarantees of making a fifth straight appearance. Former Polish international Henryk Kasperczak is currently in his second spell as Mali manager—having overseen a fourth place finish in 2002—and is well-versed in African football, previously coaching Ivory Coast, Tunisia, Morocco and Senegal. Mali must win one of their first two fixtures against Cameroon and Ivory Coast in order to have somewhat control of their own fate heading into the final encounter with Guniea.
Player to Watch: Mamoutou N’Diaye (Zulte Waregem)
Schedule: Cameroon (January 20), Ivory Coast (January 24), Guinea (January 28)
Prediction: Third
Cameroon
Best Result: Champions (1984, 1988, 2000, 2002)
FIFA Ranking: #42
The Skinny: Having featured in 14 of 15 tournaments up until 2010, Cameroon has missed out on the last two competitions. The four-time champions return with possibly their best team to date, having blown through the qualification process with an undefeated record (four wins and two draws). After the shameful display at the World Cup, manager Volker Finke has done a fantastic job of transforming his player’s individualistic mentality into one of unity. The Indomitable Lions conceded only one goal in six qualifying matches, despite facing some real quality opposition. This could very well be Cameroon’s best chance of claiming a fifth continental title. It also helps they have the psychological edge over the Ivorians, having beaten them 4-1 and taken four of six points in their qualifying group.
Player to Watch: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moing (Schalke 04)
Schedule: Mali (January 20), Guinea (January 24), Ivory Coast (January 28)
Prediction: Second
Guinea
Best Result: Runners-up (1976)
FIFA Ranking: #39
The Skinny: Despite being the second-best ranked team in Group D—according to the FIFA rankings—not much is expected from the Guineans. However, since most people give zero credence to the sport’s governing body’s ranking system, you could argue that they are in a great position as the wildcard in the group. Guinea have no pressure compared to their group opponents. Since finishing second in 1976, they’ve never went further than the quarterfinals. After failing to qualify or the 2013 edition, Guinea had to win their final fixture against Uganda to progress—which they did 2-0. Anything more than the three match minimum is unlikely.
Player to Watch: Ibrahima Traore (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
Schedule: Ivory Coast (January 20), Cameroon (January 24), Mali (January 28)
Prediction: Fourth
KNOCKOUT STAGE PREDICTIONS
Quarterfinals: Cape Verde defeats Gabon, Ivory Coast defeats Ghana, Algeria defeats Cameroon, Tunisia defeats Burkina Faso
Semifinals: Ivory Coast defeats Cape Verde, Algeria defeats Tunisia
Third Place: Tunisia defeats Cape Verde
Final: Algeria defeats Ivory Coast