From a Canadian perspective it could have been better, and it could have been worse.
Saturday’s draw for the 2015 FIFA Women’s World Cup placed Canada in a challenging group, but qualification for the knockout round and a spot in the quarterfinals is certainly doable for the Reds.
Canada will play its opening two games in Edmonton vs China (June 6) and New Zealand (June 11). Canada’s match vs the Netherlands will take place in Montreal (June 15).
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Taking the current FIFA world rankings into account—don’t roll your eyes; they offer a far more accurate picture of the elite nations in the women’s game than the male rankings—Canada has to be pleased with the draw. Canada is the highest ranked team in Group A at No. 8, ahead of China (14th), the Netherlands (15th) and New Zealand (19th).
Canada was going to get one of four teams (Nigeria, Cameroon, Ivory Coast and New Zealand) from Pot 2 of the draw, with Costa Rica and Mexico excluded because of regional restrictions.
Cameroon (No. 51) and Ivory Coast (No. 64) will compete at their first World Cup next summer, while Nigeria is ranked 35th in the world. There’s no doubt New Zealand is the most experienced and poses the biggest challenge to Canada of those four nations. But on the plus side, Canadian coach John Herdman managed New Zealand for several years, and knows that team well.
From Pot 3, China was drawn to play in Group A alongside Canada. China used to be a top 10 nation in women’s soccer—it reached the World Cup final in 1999—but has slipped down the rankings in recent years as other nations in the Asian region (namely Japan and Australia) have surpassed them. Still, China poses a bigger threat than Ecuador and Thailand—two other nations in Pot 3 who will take their World Cup bow next summer that could have been drawn into Group A.
Lady luck was with Canada during the drawing from Pot 4, though. The Netherlands is another World Cup newcomer, and one of the lower ranked European teams in that pot. Critically, Canada avoided traditional powerhouses Sweden (No. 5) and Norway (No. 12), and an up-and-coming England (No. 7).
China, New Zealand and the Netherlands—these are all winnable games for the Canadians that will allow them to finish in the top two in Group A and automatically qualify for the Round of 16. At the very least, you have to think they’ll be able to earn enough points off their opponents to qualify as one of the four-best third-place teams.
Okay, fine. Canada gets out of the group—unlike the last two times, including finishing dead last in 2011. But then what? Based on the draw, a place in the quarterfinals would be well within Canada’s grasp.
Assuming Canada wins Group A, it’s second-round opponent would be the third-place team from Group C (likely one of Switzerland, Cameroon, Ecuador), D (Australia or Nigeria) or E (Spain, South Korea or Costa Rica). Again, those are all winnable games for Canada. What’s more, the match would be in Vancouver, site of many of the Reds’ friendly matches in the build-up to the World Cup, and where they’ll be back by a big crowd at B. C. Place.
If Canada finishes second, a Round of 16 date awaits in Edmonton (where they will have played their first two group-stage matches) versus the runner-up from Group C. It’s safe to say Japan will run away with that group, leaving Switzerland, Cameroon, and Ecuador (all of them World Cup newcomers) to fight it out for second. Again—advantage Canada.
The only way Canada will run into trouble in the Round of 16 is if they finish third in its group. If that’s the case, Canada will meet Japan (the reigning champions and ranked No. 3 in the world) or Germany (a two-time winner and No. 2 in the world).
Assuming Canada wins its group, it would avoid the No. 1 ranked United States until the final. If Canada finished second, a date with the Americans looms in the quarterfinals.
So winning the group is doable, though not a certainty. In light of Canada’s path, anything less than a quarterfinal run would be rightly deemed a disappointment. An appearance in the final eight is the minimum requirement for Canada, and a spot in the semifinals would be a huge success—far greater than the Reds’ bronze medal run at the London Games.
THE SIX GROUPS
Group A: Canada, China, New Zealand, Netherlands
Group B: Germany, Ivory Coast, Norway, Thailand
Group C: Japan, Switzerland, Cameroon, Ecuador
Group D: United States, Australia, Sweden, Nigeria
Group E: Brazil, South Korea, Spain, Costa Rica
Group F: France, England, Colombia, Mexico