Germany’s Euro 2016 is over, which means the process of understanding its significance will begin at the highest levels of administration and lowest levels of punditry.
The Germans have two years to figure out what must be done to successfully defend their World Cup, and even before Thursday’s 2-0 semifinal loss to France it was evident that Joachim Low and his staff have some work to do before heading off to Russia. Despite having the bulk of possession in the first half and Low’s spot-on tactics, Germany lacked any semblance of finish. History will record that in the country’s most significant international fixture of the year it was the relatively inexperienced defender Joshua Kimmich (just 21 years old) who was their best player, but also the player whose dithering on the edge of the penalty area led to Paul Pogba setting up the second French goal.
It will also record that World Cup hero Mario Gotze came on to little effect as a second-half substitute, and that his introduction was followed by 20-year-old Leroy Sane. A country that used to be able to rely on Miroslav Klose for goals has just one centre-forward of consequence in its ranks (Mario Gomez) and with his absence due to a hamstring injury, it had no answer up front against France. For all its depth, Germany had few attacking options; it wasted more possession than any other team in this tournament.
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So, not so good in the short term, to be sure. But in the long-term? If Kimmich can somehow crash Bayern Munich’s lineup now that Pep Guardiola is gone, Germany may have solved the matter of a replacement for Philipp Lahm, its former World Cup-winning captain and defensive brain. Ironically, Kimmich found himself shifted to fullback late in the match against France when Jerome Boateng pulled up injured, a move that was forced on Lahm during Germany’s run to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. So, perhaps Kimmich is the new Lahm in more ways than one.
At the height of Germany’s possession during Thursday’s semifinal, it was through Kimmich’s side of the pitch that the Germans ran their attack. Yes, Kimmich was at fault in the buildup to Antoine Griezmann’s second goal, but so was goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. It was a systemic as opposed to an individual breakdown, and it was Kimmich who twice came close to scoring with his side down 2-0. While Kimmich looks like a player to watch for the future, Julian Draxler, the 22-year-old winger who has been touted as the next big thing in German soccer, was able to leave his imprint in games in the group stages, but disappeared in the knockout stages. He will likely leave German outfit Wolfsburg for the Premier League at some point before the World Cup and that would be splendid: he needs to add a little more worldliness and steel to his game.
Much will be made of Bastian Schweinsteiger’s hand ball and France’s subsequent goal on Griezmann’s spot kick just before halftime, but even though the German captain is on the wane he still won’t be able to wrest the goat’s horns away from another veteran, Thomas Muller, who is in his worst run of form for Die Mannschaft, and who failed to score in eight games at this competition despite leading the team in shots.
The semifinal had to be his game, what with Gomez unavailable, Gotze paying for a lack of regular playing time at Bayern Munich, and Marco Reus not on the squad due to yet another injury that seems destined to ruin his once-promising career.
Yet Muller, who has not been the same player since missing a penalty in this year’s Champions League semifinals and who has willingly ceded responsibilities to Mesut Ozil, was abject in the no. 10 role versus the French, looking like a panicky newbie whenever he found the ball at his feet. It is Muller who will most feel the weight of the loss and whose psyche must be of utmost concern for the German team, because at 26 he should be a fixture for two more World Cups and because when he is on his game he is the closest thing Germany has to a dominant offensive player. His nickname, Raumdeuter, means ‘space investigator’ or ‘space inventor’ and that hints of the subtle aspects of his game that so infuriate both opponents and Germany fans, and while Muller was able to find space throughout this competition his lack of finish was startling.
“Goals are not the fuel in my tank, they are the paint on the car to make it look better,” Muller told reporters ahead of Thursday’s game. That’s a fine attitude, unless, of course, it is precisely that commodity—goals—that is such a dire need for your team.
Low spoke bravely after the match, talking about how it would only take “a short analysis” to break down the loss.
“Today, we didn’t have the luck we needed,” he said. “When we were eliminated in 2010 and 2012, the sides were better than us. Today we were better than the French but for the goals and the luck.”
To his credit, Low resisted the temptation to use injuries as an excuse, even though it was apparent that Reus’ injuries have been a major setback for the German program. Plus, Low didn’t have much of his defensive engine—Sami Khedira and Mats Hummels—available to him in the semifinal because of Khedira’s adductor problem and Hummels’ suspension for yellow card accumulation.
But excuses won’t address the issues facing Die Mannschaft going into the 2018 World Cup in Russia. This is a deep program with an abundance of talent at the under-21 and under-19 levels, with a solid technical and administrative foundation and a domestic league that has grown in stature. But it has gaping holes at the national team level; holes that became bigger as this most recent tournament went on. In this day and age of rope-a-dope defence and quick counter-attacking, that’s not a recipe for success, regardless of pedigree.
Possession is no longer nine-tenths of the law in soccer; woe to those who still believe it to be the case.
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