Italy.
Of course, it would be Italy.
Consider this to be a pre-post mortem, because there isn’t much that scares a German soccer fan these days. Except Italy, a country that has yet to lose to Germany in eight meetings during the World Cup or European Championship, and the country that will provide the opposition to Die Mannschaft on Saturday in a quarterfinal match in Bordeaux.
MORE ON EURO 2016: Sportsnet has you covered with in-depth coverage of Euro 2016 in France, which runs from June 10 to July 10.
• Match schedule || Group standings || Live scoreboard || Latest news
• Profiles: All 24 teams || History of Euro || Top 10 moments in Euro history
• Sportsnet’s predictions || 10 players to watch || 5 key group stage games
The Azzurri: Too old. Too slow. Too … well, too Italian in that obstinate, defensive kind of way. This will be a meeting of the two best defensive sides in the competition so far, with Germany carrying the added statistical bonus of an almost-obscene possession percentage against mediocre group opponents.
Germany coach Joachim Low said before Euro 2016 that he would need two teams: one to patiently break down the minnows who would pack their own end in the group stage and hit on the counter attack; another for the elimination phase. Turns out that their quarterfinal opponent will present more of the same, only better.
No wonder that in interviews leading up to the match, Low has tread carefully. Yes, his team are the defending world champions, but it was a 2-1 loss to Italy at Euro 2012 that Low has admitted served as a point of reflection for him. His then-captain, Philipp Lahm, spoke for the nation when he said: “We have great potential, but we have to learn to fulfill it.”
Now?
“They (Italy) are a better team than in 2012,” Low said on Wednesday. “We need to avoid the Italy counter attack and have a good plan going forward.”
Low has a great deal at stake personally: considering that Italy has won 15 of its previous 30 matches all time between these teams—and drawn a further 10—a win over his country’s bogey team would even further burnish his credentials. He has never been considered the best coach Germany has had, let alone the brightest. But Italy has taken the measure of most of the men ranked ahead of him.
The good news from a German point of view is that Low’s team beat Italy 4-1 in a friendly in Munich in March. That was Germany’s first win over their great rivals since 1995, during which time the Azzurri had run up eight wins including triumphs in the Euro 2012 semifinals and the 2006 World Cup semifinals. While some in the German media trumpeted the friendly win as a harbinger for this competition, Low wasted little time in pointing out that of the time-tested Juventus trio that forms Italy’s defensive backbone—Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini—only Bonucci suited up for that match, and was replaced in the 63rd minute after a groin injury.
Low is expected to start Mario Gomez up front against Italy on Saturday, but it was suggested this week that he might serve as little more than a space-waster. And while logic would suggest the real focus ought to be on the German midfield, several observers have pointed out that in a tournament in which defender Jerome Boateng has arguably emerged as Germany’s most consistent player, his ability to connect on accurate, wide passes might be at least as important in forcing the Italian defence to widen their scope.
It says a great deal about Germany’s offensive problems that a defender who scored his first goal in 63 international matches—Boateng—could be Die Mannschaft’s player of the tournament but, well, there it is. And in a tournament marked by defending, he and Mats Hummels have become the heartbeat of the World champions, assisted at times by the under-appreciated Sami Khedira.
Indeed, the biggest concern for Low ought to be Thomas Muller, who is in the middle of his worst run of form for the German team. If this goes to spot kicks, keep in mind that the German media has noted Muller hasn’t been the same player since he missed a penalty kick in Bayern Munich’s 2-1 Champions League loss to Atletico Madrid—and that much was made of how he couldn’t wait to go up to Mesut Ozil and direct him to the spot against Slovakia. Ozil missed, and if there is a moment from this event so far that will send a shiver down German spines it is that. Muller, all too happy to yield responsibility.
And now, just like clockwork, comes Italy. Always Italy.
Sportsnet’s Soccer Central podcast (featuring Thomas Dobby, Brendan Dunlop, John Molinaro and James Sharman) takes an in-depth look at the beautiful game and offers timely and thoughtful analysis on the sport’s biggest issues.