After a two-month sabbatical, the UEFA Champions League resumes this week with the first leg of the round of 16 matches.
Sportsnet’s panel of soccer writers and broadcasters preview this week’s matches and offer their predictions.
Wednesday programming alert: Watch Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich (on Sportsnet) and AC Milan vs. Atletico Madrid (on Sportsnet World). Live coverage begins at 2:15pm ET/11:15am PT. | Sportsnet World Online | TV schedule
Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich
James Sharman: There is one scar on the otherwise flawless recent history of dominance from Bayern Munich—that 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal in last season’s Champions League round of 16 second leg. Sure, there have been other losses, albeit very few, but that match made Bayern look human and beatable, and if not for that brilliant 3-1 win at the Emirates in the first leg, Jupp Heynkes would not have been celebrated as Bayern’s treble winning coach. It is a new season, though, and Bayern have looked better than ever, going 46 games unbeaten in the Bundesliga, and looked relatively trouble free in the Champions League group phase.
Arsenal, on the other hand, remains an enigma. Brilliant at times this season, Arsene Wenger’s crew have led the Premier League for much of the campaign, and navigated a very tough Champions League group to get this far. Recent form has been questionable, but Sundays FA Cup defeat over Liverpool won back the swagger it lost following last week’s 5-1 thrashing at the hands of the Reds. What a test this will be for the Gunners. Bayern have won seven straight away from home in the Champions League. Arsenal was nervous according to Wenger in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United last week, so just how they’ll feel against the best team in the world will be very interesting to see.
Prediction: Bayern Munich wins 2-0.
AC Milan vs. Atletico Madrid
John Molinaro: Incredibly, this will be the first competitive meeting between the two sides—hard to believe considering the European pedigree of both clubs. It’s no secret that Milan has struggled in Serie A this campaign, as a failure to properly retool in the off-season and a series of injuries sees the Rossoneri currently sit ninth in the table, 31 points adrift of leaders Juventus. But Milan seems to be a rejuvenated side under new coach Clarence Seedorf, and they did survive a tough group stage that included Barcelona to get this far. Milan also has a point to prove after being eliminated in each of their last four Champions League knockout ties against Spanish teams. If Kaka and his cohorts are to upset the Spaniards, they’ll have to do a much better job of keeping the ball. Milan has averaged 38.6 per cent of possession in the Champions League this season, the lowest ratio among the 16 remaining teams in the competition. If they give away the ball that cheaply on Wednesday, Atletico will punish them.
Atletico has been one of the best stories of the season. Los Colchoneros breezed through the group stage, and are currently tied with Barcelona and Real Madrid for first place in La Liga. Manager Diego Simeone’s side is a dangerous attacking unit, buoyed by the talents of Diego Costa, who has four goals in his last three Champions League outings. Spanish midfielder Koke is another player to watch, as he’s often leading the charge in Atletico’s high-energy attack. Atletico’s speed should cause problems for Milan’s defence, but San Siro is not the easiest place for opposing teams to pick up results—mighty Barcelona found that out to their peril in last year’s tournament. If Atletico can dictate the pace at a high speed, Milan will be in trouble, so look for the Italians to try to slow things down and hold onto the ball as much as they can.
Prediction: A 1-1 draw.
Tuesday programming alert: Watch Manchester City vs. Barcelona (on Sportsnet) and Bayer Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain (on Sportsnet World). Live coverage begins at 2:30 pm ET/11:30 am PT. | Sportsnet World Online | TV schedule
Manchester City vs. Barcelona
Gerry Dobson: Here’s something I didn’t realize until just recently: Since 2008, Barcelona have played 15 away matches in various knockout stages of the Champions League and only won three. That’s right, three. You don’t have to win away from home to be successful in a two legged tie, but it’s still something to consider. But Barcelona is dangerous for a number of reasons, not the least of which is their lineup, with a healthy Lionel Messi returning to form. They’re top of the Spanish league table, and perhaps most importantly they got smashed by champions Bayern Munich in last year’s semifinals. That will not be easily forgotten and the Catalans will be eager to begin erasing the sour memories of that debacle this week. A 6-0 drubbing of Rayo Vallecano on the weekend with Messi scoring twice was a nice warm-up for a more serious matter in Manchester.
Manchester City is a team that is on the verge of great things; that is if they can survive this test and move on. They won the league in 2012 and the FA Cup the year before that. They’re in the Capital One Cup final next month and there are four major trophies available to the club this year. Champions League glory would certainly put a stamp of greatness on this team. They’re coming off an impressive FA Cup victory over Chelsea and have rarely looked better. They get so much offence from their wide players and attacking midfielders that it sometimes looks like they play with four or five strikers. Sergio Aguero has been ruled out due to injury while Fernandinho is questionable. It’s a pity this match up takes place in the round of 16. It could be a final.
Prediction: Manchester City wins 3-2.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Thomas Michalakos: This is a complete mismatch on paper, and anything less than a resounding victory at the Parc des Princes for Laurent Blanc’s side would be quite shocking. The Germans have it all to do, especially when you take into consideration PSG have only lost once—to Montpellier in a rather meaningless Coupe De France fixture—on their home turf (14 wins in 18 matches). This will be the first-ever encounter between the two clubs, and it comes at a less than ideal time for Sami Hyypia’s Leverkusen following a 2-1 weekend defeat to Schalke. If the odds weren’t already heavily stacked against them, arriving in the French capital somewhat deflated and low on confidence only intensifies the challenge ahead. Bayer does hold a 100 per cent record in two-legged ties against French opposition in Europe. Unfortunately, historical statistics mean very little, given their current opponent’s undeniable strength and depth. Die Werkself’s hopes of progressing into the last eight for the first time since 2002 hinge on finding the target in Paris, and more importantly containing the formidable attacking prowess of Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Edinson Cavani is expected to miss the match due to a nagging thigh injury. Not that it matters much from the looks of it, as Ibra scored his league leading 19th goal to help PSG comfortably beat Valenciennes 3-0 over the weekend.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain wins 4-1.