“One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.”
This isn’t necessarily the expression with which the three of the Premier League’s biggest clubs would like to be associated. But their transfer dealings over this past summer suggest that not only have they employed this strategy, but that it’s actually working.
Conventional wisdom says that big clubs looking to improve should try to buy young players who are already stars or on the way to becoming one. So why then have Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United all bought middle-aged players who were deemed surplus by top sides in La Liga?
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This summer, Chelsea bought Cesc Fabregas from Barcelona who was frustrated by a lack of playing time. Arsenal bought Alexis Sanchez from Barcelona, as well. Many believe Sanchez was sold to make way for Barcelona’s main summer target Luis Suarez. Real Madrid similarly sold Angel Di Maria to Manchester United in order to make space to sign Colombian World Cup breakout star James Rodriguez.
When a massive club sells a good player to another massive club there is always a question of talent evaluation. Does the selling club know something about the player that the buying club doesn’t? We’ve seen this many times with players declining after moving among the top teams in the world: Andrei Shevchenko, Fernando Torres, Thierry Henry.
That’s why it is more than a little surprising that while Rodriguez and Suarez have yet to reach their potential in La Liga—although it’s still early in the season—all three of the players joining Premier League clubs are enjoying career seasons.
At Arsenal, Alexis Sanchez is averaging 3.5 shots and 2.9 key passes (passes leading to a shot) per 90 minutes. Cesc Fabregas has 1.2 shots and 3.4 key passes per 90 minutes. Angel Di Maria has 3.5 shots and 3.3 key passes per 90 minutes.
In comparison to their time at Barcelona and Real Madrid all three have progressed tremendously. In 2012-13, these three players combined for 12.1 shots and key passes per 90 minutes. The following season they combined for 14.1 shots and key passes per 90 minutes. This year in the Premier League, Fabregas, Sanchez and Di Maria are averaging 17.8 shots and key passes per 90 minutes. Almost four total chances more per 90 minutes than they were creating the previous season.
One more advanced statistic that is useful for comparing players’ attacking contributions is called Weighted Chances Created Plus (wCC+), which looks at a player’s goals, assists, shots and key passes. Comparing only these three players over the past three seasons, for a total of nine player-seasons, the average wCC+ in this elite sample will be 100.
This season Sanchez has a wCC+ of 134 and Di Maria has a wCC+ of 129, which means they are producing 34 and 29 percent more than the average of these nine player-seasons. Fabregas is currently posting a wCC+ of 95, reflecting the fact he shoots less than the other two, but this is still higher score than he ever had at Barcelona.
It is important to remember that all of these statistics are measured per 90 minutes, so the fact this trio is getting more playing time with their Premier League clubs than they were in La Liga is irrelevant.
With the three players starting their Premier Leagues careers so impressively—or in the case of Cesc re-starting starting his—there are a couple simple explanations that come to mind.
First, when a player improves his numbers drastically upon joining a new club the most obvious possible explanation is that his new team is just much better and everyone on the roster has higher numbers than his previous outfit.
This is simply not the case with these three signings, though.
In 2012-13 Sanchez, Fabregas and Di Maria were directly involved with an average of 18 percent of their teams’ shots when they were on the pitch (either through taking the shot or providing the key pass). In 2013-14 this number stayed roughly the same at 20 percent. With their Premier League clubs they have directly contributed to a staggering 29 percent of their team’s shots while on the pitch.
If these players were only seeing higher production because everyone on their new team had higher numbers then we would expect to see these contribution percentages stay roughly the same. However, it’s clear these players are much more important to the attacks of their new Premier League clubs than they were at Barcelona and Real Madrid.
A second possible explanation is slightly more difficult to test. Are these players just performing better because the level of competition is lower?
The age old-question of which league is the best in the world isn’t one that can be answered easily or without any controversy. Although on the whole it is probably fair to say that if La Liga is stronger than the Premier League—and there are plenty of arguments to be made that it isn’t—it probably is not a significant enough difference in quality to account for the massive improvements all three players have made at their new clubs.
So if all of these players are playing so well at their new clubs, then why did Barcelona and Real Madrid deem them expendable?
Maybe it has to do with the hoards of talent already at these two clubs, but on the flip side it is not as if Chelsea is struggling for depth. Maybe it is a marketing decision where Real Madrid knows they’ll be able to sell hundreds of thousands of new jerseys with the name of a twenty-two-year-old Colombian with an infectious smile.
Regardless of the reasons, if this trend continues Premier League clubs, as well as the La Liga teams, will have plenty of thinking to do this summer.
Do the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United really have to take a risk on trying to find the next young superstar if Real Madrid and Barcelona are ready to sell readymade ones?
Do Barcelona and Real Madrid need to have a serious look at how they evaluate the talent they have in their own ranks before looking elsewhere for replacements?
Sam Gregory is soccer analytics writer based in Montreal. Follow him on Twitter