The 2015-16 UEFA Champions League continues this week with the second leg of the semifinals.
Sportsnet’s soccer panel of broadcasters, writers and pundits offer their picks and predictions below…
BAYERN MUNICH vs. ATLETICO MADRID
Noah Love, Sportsnet.ca: It’s strange, but every time Pep Guardiola suffers a high-profile defeat, it feels like the ghost of his rivalry with Jose Mourinho lingers. The rhythm of these games has a tendency to mirror the defeats Pep’s Barcelona suffered against Mou’s Real Madrid, especially in the 2012-13 season. Barca would out-possess by a substantial margin, but Madrid’s defence would be wound so tightly in and around the box that Lionel Messi and company would have no passing lanes to create dangerous shots. Madrid would then expose Barcelona’s high defensive line on counterattacks, and Real would win the day.
Diego Simeone used a nearly identical strategy to beat Bayern Munich in the first leg (not to mention Barcelona in the quarterfinals). Bayern had 74 percent possession last week but only two more shots on target than Atletico (7-5). And Atletico was the only team that actually put the ball in the net, thanks to a brilliant strike from Saul Niguez.
It doesn’t help that Guardiola got a bit too clever with his line-up selection, leaving Thomas Muller out until the 70th minute when literally anyone else would have considered the German goal machine a sure starter. Look for Bayern to sport a more sensible line-up on Tuesday and to be far more incisive at home, but expect Atletico to advance on an away goal.
Prediction: Bayern Munich wins 2-1.
Thomas Michalakos, Sportsnet.ca: What’s it going to take for Bayern to advance to their fourth Champions League final in seven years? Another epic comeback at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday. Although to be fair, its not quite on the same scale as their comeback victory over Juventus in the opening knockout round—having fought back from two goals down to secure a miraculous 4-2 extra-time victory—the mountain climb is still steep and filled with many obstacles despite only being down 1-0 on aggregate.
Atletico silenced the big guns of Bayern and walked away 1-0 winners in the fist leg; keeping Bayern off the score sheet is a rarity to say the least with Atletico being only the fifth team to accomplish this feat. It needs to be said that similar to the previous four opponents to blank the reigning Bundesliga champions—Arsenal, Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund—the rare feat didn’t happen in Munich.
A third successive exit at this stage of the competition to a Spanish opponent isn’t in the cards, as I expect Bayern to find another gear and relentlessly wreak havoc in Jan Oblak’s goalmouth. No way Atletico won’t concede this time around. If it does go to penalties, the hosts have won five from six attempts in the Champions League. Bayern have been unstoppable at the Allianz Arena, winning all five of their home fixtures in the competition this season and outscoring their opponents—19-3—and are one win away from equalling the record for consecutive home victories.
Prediction: Bayern wins 1-0, then advances on penalties.
REAL MADRID vs. MANCHESTER CITY
James Sharman, Sportsnet : It has to be said that in recent weeks Manchester City have played more like what we expect from them, and serious doubts over any character or leadership issues have been dampened somewhat. Earning a 0-0 draw against the Ronaldo-less Real Madrid in the first leg validates this, although cynics will point to a lack of finishing on Real’s part as to the main reason for the stalemate.
On Sunday, however, those old worries resurfaced as City were well beaten by Southampton 4-2 in the Premier League after a terrible defensive display. Manuel Pellegrini made eight line-up changes as he rested players ahead of the game against Real Madrid, and it was clear that depth is on area that needs to be addressed this off-season.
Regardless of the outcome this week, it’s fair to say City have at least broken their European hoodoo; a win would mean that perhaps this write-off of a season will viewed as a success after all.
Prediction: Real Madrid wins 2-0.
John Molinaro, Sportsnet.ca: This is a difficult one to handicap because we don’t know the status of Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese star sat out the first leg with a thigh injury, and he also missed Real’s league match against Real Sociedad on the weekend. He trained with the team on Monday in a fight to be fit for Wednesday’s second leg, but there’s still no word whether he’ll play or not. Forward Karim Benzema (hamstring) and midfielder Casemiro are also questionable for the return match at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The potential absences of these three players are huge for Real, but none would hurt los blancos more than Ronaldo. They dearly missed him in that dour and dire first leg back in Manchester, as they were let down by some desperate finishing in front of goal. Ronaldo has a way of unlocking defences like few other players in the world, and if he’s in the line-up then Real is usually considered the favourite.
If Ronaldo does play on Wednesday, how fit will he be? Can he overcome this thigh problem and wield his usual brand of magic? Or will be slowed down to the point where City will be able to neutralize him?
Even if Ronaldo can’t go on Wednesday, you have to think Real will pull it off, if for no other reason they’ll have home-field advantage and better teams than Manchester City have perished at the Bernabeu.
Prediction: Real Madrid wins 1-0
Sportsnet’s Soccer Central podcast (featuring Thomas Dobby, Brendan Dunlop, John Molinaro and James Sharman) takes an in-depth look at the beautiful game and offers timely and thoughtful analysis on the sport’s biggest issues.
