I all but wrote off the Minnesota Timberwolves after they blew two separate 25 point leads to lose Game 3 at home.
I asked how you could even come back from a loss like that. The Wolves answered in Game 4 and tied the series at two. Karl-Anthony Towns was great, with 33 points and 14 rebounds and some huge shots down the stretch of their 119-118 win. That series continues to be strange, weird and somehow very beautiful.
The Miami Heat have the Atlanta Hawks on the ropes after a dominating Game 4 win to go up 3-1. Trae Young hit the game-winner in Game 3, but he’s been downright bad in the series, thanks in no small part to Miami’s suffocating point-of-attack defence. And I’ve left the most fun series for last.
Boy, are the New Orleans Pelicans fun! I’ve lost picking against them all series after I won big on them in the Play-In Tournament. Today, I’m finally doing it. I’m hitching my wagon, at least for one day, to Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Zion Williamson In Street Clothes.
It’s been a weird first round. Might as well make some weird picks.
Overall record against the spread: 9-7
Atlanta Hawks (+7.5, +260) at Miami Heat (-7.5, -320) – 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Miami’s guard and wing defence is simply too much for Trae Young. The All-NBA point guard is averaging just over 16 points per game on 35/21/80 shooting splits (he was 46/38/90 on the season). The worst part for Young and the Hawks: it’s not like he’s missing a bunch of open shots. The Heat defence has been icing Trae in reliably effective ways.
I take that back, the real worst part is his assist to turnover ratio is and even 1:1. Six assists per game, six turnovers per game. Everyone knows, and I’ve said it here before: As Trae Young goes, so go the Hawks. And Miami is perfectly built to shut down a heliocentric guard. They probably don’t even need Kyle Lowry to get it done.
Miami (-7.5) to cover is the pick, since I don’t feel like we need to consider the matchup when Miami has the ball. Miami is going to win this when Atlanta has the ball. I have a feeling this one is over early, so I’ll take Jimmy Butler UNDER 25.5 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+6, +210) at Memphis Grizzlies (-6, -250) – 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
It should come as no surprise to anyone that a series featuring two of the league’s most foul-prone teams has come down to which team is deeper into foul trouble down the stretch. In Game 4, it was Memphis with seemingly all of its key players losing minutes to foul trouble, as the Wolves tied the series 2-2. I mean, every Grizzlies starter had at least 4 fouls, and Jaren Jackson Jr. fouled out in just 23 minutes.
I’m thinking a few things with this game. First, Ja Morant has not been JA MORANT this series, and I expect him to have a big game as the Grizzlies head home for a pivotal Game 5. Second, I think foul shot discrepancy evens out (it was 40-25 in Minnesota’s favour in Game 4).
Desmond Bane comes back to Earth after 34 point explosion, but a good Ja game plus all the advantages of home court (a friendlier whistle, even better role player production) leads me to Memphis (-6). I’ve also got Ja Morant OVER 26.5 points.
I think this series goes seven games, and I plan on taking the home team from here on out.
New Orleans Pelicans (+6.5, +220) at Phoenix Suns (-6.5, -270) – 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
The series shifts back to Phoenix tied 2-2 after a stunning 118-103 Pelicans win in Game 4. For the first time all series, New Orleans just looked like the better team. Now, the Smoothie King Arena was jumping, Jonas Valanciunas was great, and Jose Alvarado was doing Chris Paul Things to Chris Paul. It was beautiful.
I don’t think New Orleans wins this game, but I’m going to take the Pelicans (+6.5) and the points, because I think this series is just really close with Devin Booker out. The Suns need DeAndre Ayton to be great to win this series now, and he’s got the best set-up man a big could ask for in Paul. I like Ayton OVER 20.5 points and to get a double-double (-200).
Brandon Ingram has been unguardable, despite the Suns deep roster of good wing defenders. Jae Crowder has been Ingram’s primary defender for the most part, and Ingram has torched him, shooting 50 per cent from the field and 55 per cent from deep in that match up. He’s a problem. I’m also taking Ingram OVER 26.5 points in a close loss.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +1100
· Phoenix Money Line
· Brandon Ingram OVER 26.5 points
· CJ McCollum UNDER 23.5 points
· DeAndre Ayton OVER 20.5 points
· DeAndre Ayton double-double
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.
