We head into Week 17 feeling a little beat up. Noah Fant and CeeDee Lamb just fell short on their totals last week as we had a rough week to wrap up 2021. We’ll try to start the new year on a winning note. I’ve done all the work for you here in case you’re thinking of starting off 2022 with some player prop bets.
Here are some of the plays that could get your year off to a solid start.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 24-25 (-6.60 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys 4:25 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: WR Michael Gallup total receiving yards (Over 43.5 -120, Under 43.5 -120)
The streaking Cowboys host the slumping Cardinals today at AT&T Stadium. Dallas has won four straight and has the NFC East clinched and still has a shot at the conference’s No. 1 seed. Arizona has a playoff spot locked up and are still in the mix for the NFC West title. This game has plenty of playoff implications, but we want to talk about is Michael Gallup’s total receiving yards prop here.
Gallup hauled in two passes for 53 yards on five targets in Dallas’ 56-14 destruction of Washington last Sunday night. Volume hasn’t really been an issue for the 25-year-old wide receiver. Gallup has seen at least five targets in each of the eight games he’s played this season. Gallup’s advanced metrics are also too tasty to pass up. He’s averaging an eye-popping 85.0 air yards per game and is averaging 0.05 yards per route run, both well above league average.
Here’s more metrics that are better than most. Gallup receives 15.1 per cent of Dallas’ team air yards and his average depth of target of 11.7 yards. He’s also averaging 20.1 yards per catch at home compared to just 9.5 yards on the road. The Cardinals have a top 10 pass defence, but that hasn’t been a problem for Gallup. He’s racked up 14.5 yards per reception against top 10 pass defence’s this season.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have given up an average of 239 passing yards over their past four games. Arizona had no answer for Michael Pittman who hauled in eight catches for 82 yards on 12 targets for the Colts last week in Indianapolis. The ‘Red Birds’ also allowed 74 receiving yards combined to T.Y. Hilton and Ashton Dulin. Indy’s wide receivers are solid, but don’t compare to the trio of CeedDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
Pick: I’m aware that Michael Gallup is the highest variance receiver on the Cowboys because most of his snaps come in three-wide sets. That doesn’t scare me here. This total is too low with his big play ability and has received 23 targets over his past three games. I think there is too much value here with this matchup, so take Gallup’s receiving total of 43.5 to go OVER at -120.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers 8:20 p.m. ET
Wager(s) to watch: RB Dalvin Cook total rushing yards (Over 80.5 -120, Under 80.5 -120), RB Dalvin Cook total rushing/receiving yards (Over 100.5 -120, Under 100.5 -120)
The Packers welcome the Vikings to Lambeau Field in prime time. Green Bay has already secured the NFC North title and have their eye on the No. 1 seed and a playoff bye with a win and a Dallas loss. The Vikings, however, will be eliminated from the playoff hunt with a loss and wins from either the Falcons or the Eagles earlier in the day. Let’s focus on Dalvin Cook’s total rushing and total rushing/receiving yards combined prop.
Cook was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday, and had his practice reps capped, likely due to a lack of conditioning. This prop is more about who is starting at quarterback for the Vikings instead of Cook’s ability to have some success against the Packers defence. The 26-year-old running back racked up 115 yards from scrimmage with one touchdown in Week 11 at home versus Green Bay. That was with Kirk Cousins under centre for Minnesota, but that won’t be the case tonight.
The Vikings will start Sean Mannion at QB because Cousins was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week. The 29-year-old has two career starts (both losses) and has not appeared in a game since 2019. Mannion’s career 60.8 percent passer rating with just 5.2 yards per attempt are lower than all 32 qualified passers this season. That means Cook should be facing a stacked box tonight against a Packers team that was gashed last week by Nick Chubb and the Browns. Cook has been ‘Even Steven’ when hitting the over on his rushing yards total set by oddsmakers this season by cashing in six of his 12 opportunities. He’s also averaging 14.7 receiving yards per game and has gone over his receiving yards prop total just four of 11 times.
Green Bay has been ok against the run this season by allowing 115.3 rushing yards per game which ranks 18th in the NFL. The Packers have been slightly worse at home by surrendering 123.4 rushing yards per game at Lambeau. Green Bay, though, boasts the NFL’s 11th-ranked pass defence this season by allowing 234.3 yards per game through the air.
Pick: I know taking the under on player prop totals aren’t really that fun, but we’re going to plug our nose here. With Kirk Cousins out and Sean Mannion playing, and with WR Adam Thielen out, Dalvin Cook should be the focal point for the Vikings. I think Green Bay should sell out to stop the run here. I’m taking Cook’s rushing prop of 80.5 yards to go UNDER at -120 and his total rushing/receiving yards of 100.5 to go UNDER at -120.
