Max Verstappen has the opportunity to wrap up his Formula One title defence as early as Sunday at the Singapore Grand Prix.
Unlike last season where it came down to the dramatic last lap of the final race, Verstappen has his second consecutive drivers' world championship practically locked up thanks to an impressive run of 11 victories in 2022, including a five-race winning streak entering this weekend.
Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, Verstappen's Red Bull Racing teammate Sergio Perez, Mercedes' George Russell and Ferrari's Carlos Sainz are the only other drivers remaining in the title hunt — mathematically at least. Verstappen (335 points) holds a seemingly insurmountable 116-point lead over Leclerc (219), while Perez (210) is an additional nine points back and Russell (203) lags behind by seven more. Sainz (187) is only still in the picture until Sunday if we're being honest.
It's inevitable Verstappen will capture the title, it's just a matter of when and where. Here's how it could happen in Singapore.
First off, Verstappen must win the Singapore GP. The Dutch driver needs to outscore Leclerc by 22 points, Perez by 13 and Russell by six. Even finishing second and earning the fastest lap bonus would only net Verstappen a total of 19 points and keep Leclerc hanging on by a thread for at least another week.
Also, we can ignore Russell in any of Verstappen's championship scenarios for Sunday. If Verstappen wins, with or without claiming the fastest lap bonus, he's guaranteed to finish at least six points clear of Russell due to the scoring system (sorry, George).
Here are the scenarios that could play out and lead to a Verstappen championship victory.
Scenario No. 1: Max-imum points for Verstappen
• Verstappen wins the race and scores the fastest lap bonus point (26 points).
• Leclerc must finish no higher than eighth (four points or less).
• Perez must finish no higher than fourth (12 points or less).
Scenario No. 2: Leclerc gets the fastest lap
• Verstappen must win the race (25 points).
• Leclerc must finish no higher than ninth with the bonus (three points or less).
• Perez must finish no higher than fourth (12 points or less).
Scenario No. 3: Perez gets the fastest lap
• Verstappen must win the race (25 points).
• Leclerc must finish no higher than ninth (two points or less).
• Perez must finish no higher than fifth with the bonus (11 points or less).
Scenario 4: Neither Verstappen, Leclerc nor Perez gets the fastest lap
• Verstappen must win the race (25 points).
• Leclerc must finish no higher than ninth (two points or less).
• Perez must finish no higher than fourth (12 points or less).
In baseball terms, Verstappen's situation is like saying the Toronto Blue Jays' magic number is two: it requires him to win the race and have two other drivers face misfortune. Fate isn't entirely within his own hands, at least not yet.
Considering Verstappen has won 11 of 16 races this season, another victory seems probable. Verstappen is the odds-on favourite to win the Singapore GP at -143 as of Thursday afternoon according to Coolbet.
From a historical perspective, Verstappen has yet to take the checkered flag in Singapore but to be fair, F1 hasn't raced at the Marina Bay Street Circuit since 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Verstappen has finished on the podium twice previously. He came in third place three years ago behind the Ferrari duo of Sebastian Vettel and Leclerc, and he was second in 2018 behind Lewis Hamilton.
That pesky fastest lap bonus point could complicate things a little — or a lot.
If Verstappen is in the lead and holding a significant advantage during the late stages of the Singapore GP, don't be surprised to see him dive into the pits for a fresher set of soft tires in order to take a run at the fastest lap.
Verstappen has claimed the fastest lap bonus five times this season including twice in the past three races.
Leclerc has snagged it three times — albeit all during the first three races of the season — and Perez holds a trio of bonus points, too, including one from the most recent race in Monza.
I mean, hasn't that been the story of their season? Yes, Ferrari has made quite a number of blunders this season. Leclerc has retired from three races — coincidentally while starting on pole position all three times — and some questionable strategy calls have surely let more points slip away.
Still, Leclerc has ended up no worse than sixth in races where he's reached the finish line, and the Monegasque driver is coming off back-to-back podium results in the Netherlands and Italy.
Perez also hasn't finished lower than sixth in a Grand Prix this year when he's made it all the way to the end. The Mexican driver has retired twice and had late technical problems once but none of those incidents overlapped with Leclerc's DNFs.
So, while the odds of Verstappen winning are favourable, the odds of both Leclerc and Perez running into problems doesn't seem as likely.
Then we just wait another week for the Japanese Grand Prix on Oct. 9.
Regardless, a good result in Singapore means there's a great chance Verstappen still ends up with the title before the series wraps up its two-event swing through Asia.
Verstappen believes he has a better shot at clinching in Japan anyway and called it a "longshot" to happen in Singapore.
"I think Japan is nicer," Verstappen said, according to Formula1.com. "Also, I need a lot of luck for it to happen here, so I don’t really count on it."
He added: "I think [Suzuka will be] my first proper opportunity to win the title. So, I’m looking forward to Singapore right now, but I’m also very excited for next week."
