TORONTO – In the course of the last few months, the Toronto Blue Jays have improved their roster considerably. A rotation once filled with question marks has been transformed and some of the club’s smaller-scale moves have the potential to make a difference, too.
But of course in a sport with 26 active roster spots, there’s always room to improve. That’s true for the deepest teams in baseball – the Yankees and Dodgers, for instance – and it’s certainly true of the Blue Jays, a 95-loss team in 2019.
With that in mind, it’s far more interesting to seek out the Blue Jays’ greatest remaining vulnerabilities than it is to ponder their greatest strengths. Not only will those weak spots shape the results on the field, they’ll impact the path ahead for club decision makers.
So, with just a couple weeks remaining before spring training, we go beyond the starting nine and front five in an attempt to determine where the 2020 Blue Jays are most vulnerable…
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First Base
Projected starter: Travis Shaw (L)
Depth options: Rowdy Tellez (L), Cavan Biggio (L), Brandon Drury (R), Billy McKinney (L)
A bounce-back season from Shaw would go a long way toward lengthening the Blue Jays’ batting order. Even then, Shaw hasn’t hit lefties all that well during his career so there’s a potential need for a right-handed hitting complement here and no clear answer for that role.
Even though there are no sure things at first base, there’s little risk the Blue Jays will end up completely exposed because many players on the roster can handle the position defensively.
Second Base
Projected starter: Cavan Biggio (L)
Depth options: Travis Shaw (L), Santiago Espinal (R), Breyvic Valera (S), Brandon Drury (R), Joe Panik (L), Ruben Tejada (R)
The Blue Jays have plenty of options behind Biggio, especially after signing Panik and Tejada to non-roster deals. Espinal and Valera have options remaining, which gives the front office the flexibility to fill medium-term gaps easily. And if the Blue Jays need someone for a game or two, they could even ask Shaw to slide to his right.
All things considered, the Blue Jays don’t appear overly vulnerable here.
Third Base
Projected starter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
Depth options: Travis Shaw (L), Santiago Espinal (R), Breyvic Valera (S), Brandon Drury (R), Ruben Tejada (R)
Guerrero Jr., had his share of defensive struggles as a rookie, so the club’s infield defence might actually be better on days he’s sidelined. But at 20 years old, he’s still young enough to improve his glovework and there’s no doubt the Blue Jays miss his bat on days he’s not playing.
While Guerrero could be the Blue Jays’ best hitter, the presence of Shaw limits the urgency for further additions here.
Shortstop
Projected starter: Bo Bichette (R)
Depth options: Santiago Espinal (R), Breyvic Valera (S), Brandon Drury (R), Ruben Tejada (R)
If Bichette goes down, the Blue Jays are in trouble. Tejada’s the most experienced alternative here, but he was a below-average hitter in his prime and now finds himself on the wrong side of 30. Drury could handle shortstop for a few days, but it’s not his natural position and he didn’t hit much last year. You can dream on Espinal, but he’s primarily a second baseman with little experience above double-A. That leaves Valera, a late-2019 waiver claim, who has a career .815 OPS at triple-A but far worse offensive numbers in 54 big-league games.
After last year’s debut, Bichette’s arguably the most exciting player on the Blue Jays. At this point, he’s probably their most indispensable player, too.
Catcher
Projected starter: Danny Jansen (R)
Depth options: Reese McGuire (L), Riley Adams (R), Caleb Joseph (R)
At this stage, the Blue Jays envision a time share for Jansen and McGuire with matchups and recent performance informing lineup decisions.
Beyond their two young big-leaguers, veteran Caleb Joseph and prospect Riley Adams provide some insurance for 2020. For those inclined to look further ahead, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno rank among the game’s best catching prospects. With those options in place, the Blue Jays have more depth behind the plate than most.
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Outfield
Projected starters: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R), Teoscar Hernandez (R), Randal Grichuk (R)
Depth options: Derek Fisher (L), Anthony Alford (R), Jonathan Davis (R), Billy McKinney (L), Forrest Wall (L), Cavan Biggio (L)
At this stage, the Blue Jays’ outfield looks to be a relative weakness. There are lots of names here, but none of them project to generate even 2.0 wins above replacement in 2020.
An optimistic observer might point to Hernandez as a breakout candidate, and after the way he finished the 2019 season some hope is warranted. Along those lines, a full season of Gurriel Jr., would be fun to watch considering he has 31 home runs with an .819 OPS through 149 career games.
Still, one injury would force the Blue Jays to give regular at-bats to someone like Fisher, Alford or McKinney. A second injury might force Montoyo to get really creative and shift someone like Biggio to the outfield.
“It’s my job to provide him with those options and show up to spring training ready to play the outfield,” Biggio said recently. “Centre, right, left (along with) first, second and maybe third.”
Still, that’s not ideal. Best-case scenario, someone here breaks out, giving the Blue Jays more viable options. Otherwise, they’re an injury away from getting exposed.
Designated Hitter
The Blue Jays considered adding a traditional designated hitter such as Edwin Encarnacion, but they’ll begin the season without a full-time DH. If anything, that’s an advantage for Montoyo, who can mix and match based on opposing pitchers and the health of his own team.
“It helps me a lot,” he said recently.
Even if there’s no clear starter here, there’s no urgency to find one. Tellez may get more starts than anyone else, with Shaw, Guerrero and Gurriel all possibilities, too.
Bullpen
Projected relievers: Ken Giles, Anthony Bass, Rafael Dolis, Sam Gaviglio, Wilmer Font, Thomas Pannone, Jordan Romano, A.J. Cole
Depth options: Ryan Dull, Phillippe Aumont, Jackson McClelland, Kirby Snead, Ty Tice
Beyond Giles, the Blue Jays will be hoping for breakouts – or at least some stability. There are few sure things in this bullpen, which would look pretty thin if Giles misses any time. Even after adding Dolis, Bass and Cole on low-risk deals, this group looks vulnerable on paper, especially from the left side.
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Rotation
Projected starters: Hyun-jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker, Shun Yamaguchi
Depth options: Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki, Jacob Waguespack, Anthony Kay, Nate Pearson, T.J. Zeuch
A few months ago the Blue Jays’ rotation was a glaring weakness. Now, it’s arguably a strength thanks to newcomers Ryu, Roark, Anderson and Yamaguchi. One through five, the Blue Jays look much stronger now.
“Not only that,” Montoyo added, “We’re going to have depth.”
While the likes of Thornton and Borucki will arrive at spring training with the chance to win a job, both may have to begin the season in the minors. As Bichette put it earlier this month, “it’s unfortunate for them, but for the team there’s a lot of very good pitchers that can come up and fill in … The rotation looks good right now.”
Injuries are inevitable, of course, but the Blue Jays are now equipped to handle them since Thornton, Borucki, Waguespack, Kay and Zeuch can all be optioned up and down as needed. Plus, with top prospect Nate Pearson now nearing the majors, the rotation has upside on the way, too.
State of the Roster
With spring training approaching, the Blue Jays are most vulnerable at shortstop, where an injury to Bichette would leave them scrambling. A sidelined outfielder might be just as costly unless one of the Blue Jays’ fourth outfield types break out. Elsewhere, the Blue Jays’ bullpen looks thin and they don’t have a clear first baseman against lefties.
Otherwise, this roster is far stronger than it was a few months ago with a much-improved rotation, enviable depth behind the plate and an assortment of hitters capable of filling in at second, third and DH.
