As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to defend the American League East title, sportsnet.ca breaks down every squad in the division by looking at each team’s depth chart, strengths & weaknesses and key storylines to watch in 2016.
More analysis:
Baltimore | Boston | Toronto | NY Yankees
Fielding a roster of relative unknowns and posting a record of 80-82, the Tampa Bay Rays made themselves fairly easy to ignore in 2015.
The team kept pace in the AL East for the first half of the season, but were derailed by a 9-16 record in July and never recovered. The Rays were consistently a tough team to play against, with a stable of talented young arms and solid defenders around the diamond. They simply lacked the firepower to be a contender for the division crown.
This off-season Tampa Bay has looked to improve its offence, which ranked 25th in baseball last year with only 644 runs scored. On the free-agent market, the team signed bounce-back candidate Steve Pearce, who was a force at the plate for the Orioles in 2014 before falling flat last season. There is a significant risk that Pearce, 32, is a one-hit wonder, but with a modest $4.75-million price tag he’s a fine roll of the dice for the small-market Rays.
Tampa Bay was also very active making trades to bolster its lineup. Dealing from their surplus of pitching, the Rays brought in Brad Miller, who figures to bring above-average offence from the shortstop position, hard-hitting outfielder Corey Dickerson, and one-time phenom Logan Morrison at first base.
While the team will still likely lag behind some of the more powerful offences of the AL East, they should score more runs than they did last year, which could make all the difference.
Baseball Prospectus’ projection system PECOTA initially predicted the Rays would top the AL East in 2016 with 91 wins. That forecast may wind up on the aggressive side, but it indicates the Rays are far from also-rans.
DEPTH CHART:
Click on each position for a breakdown
KEY STORYLINES TO WATCH:
Can the rotation stay healthy?
When they assembled their rotation, the Rays erred on the side of young talent as opposed to reliable veterans. As a team that lacks the financial resources to use free agency as a primary team-building tool, they had no choice.
The positive for the Rays is that Smyly and Moore have had spurts of dominance in the past and possess high ceilings. Odorizzi is also a threat to take the next step. This rotation could wind up being much better than it is projected to be.
However, durability remains a serious question mark. With the exception of Archer, no one has cracked the 200-inning mark in their career. It’s hard to say when the team can expect Cobb to contribute again, and the Smyly/Moore southpaw duo combined for just 24 starts last year.
The Rays could have one of best rotations in the American League, but the range of outcomes for the group is vast.
Who is Logan Forsythe?
Just over two years ago, the Rays acquired Forsythe in a seven-player deal, and it was unclear what they were getting. He’d shown some versatility and the ability to hit lefties in the past, but he’d never made his mark as a full-time player – even in a poor San Diego Padres lineup.
His first year with the Rays was a disaster where he hit .223/.287/.329 and struggled in the field. Last season, he became the team’s top offensive threat and slashed .281/.359/.444 with 17 home runs.
It’s always wise to be skeptical of a breakout coming at the age of 28 with little warning. That being said, Forsythe showed the kind of improved power and plate discipline that’s hard to fake. He doesn’t seem the type to turn back into a pumpkin.
Can the Rays hold a lead?
The Rays have a history of patching together effective makeshift bullpens, but this might be the year things come undone for them late in games. Trading McGee was probably a wise move, but in the wake of Boxberger’s injury, their relief core is looking very thin.
Farquhar, Colome and Cedeno are hardly Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller and it gets worse from there. The Rays are a team that believes in pulling starters early to preserve their arms and avoid letting them turn the lineup over three times. As a result, they tend to put a heavy burden on the bullpen.
As constructed, it seems unlikely this group can shoulder the load.
