Blue Jays 2020 Simulation: Twins, Rays create tough Week 3 for Jays

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker. (Mark Blinch/CP)

With sports on pause as the world tries to slow the spread of COVID-19, there are still ways to fill the void created by the lack of games. In order to provide a distraction from the much more serious things going on in the world, Sportsnet’s Blue Jays radio broadcaster Mike Wilner will be simulating each scheduled Blue Jays game in what was supposed to have been the 2020 season and providing weekly updates in this space. You can follow the games as they happen on Twitter @Wilnerness590. The simulation is being done using Dynasty League Baseball, a cards-and-dice tabletop (and online) simulation game.

It was another rough simulated week for your 2020 Blue Jays as they ran into a buzzsaw in the juggernaut Minnesota Twins, then had what feels like their usual tough trip into their House of Horrors, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.

The week began with the Blue Jays licking their wounds after a 1-0 loss at home to Kansas City, and those wounds got a lot deeper in a hurry. The Twins came to town – their all-time great slugging squad of last season bolstered by the addition of Josh Donaldson – and laid an old-fashioned pounding on the home side, scoring in each of the first five innings to build a 10-0 lead, and rolling to an easy 16-4 victory.

Donaldson was held in check, kind of, with “only” a single and two walks, but Nelson Cruz homered twice and drove in four and Luis Arraez had three doubles on a four-hit day, scored five times and drove in three.

Tanner Roark allowed five runs on eight hits over just 3 1/3 innings, and the bullpen was (clearly) no better behind him. The Jays didn’t score until the seventh, when they were already trailing by 11. Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez hit back-to-back homers.

The middle game of the series was much calmer. A terrific pitchers’ duel, in fact. Matt Shoemaker gave up a run in the first inning, as Jorge Polanco doubled and was immediately singled home by Cruz, and then the righty went to work. After the Cruz single, Shoemaker retired 20 Twins hitters in a row, taking a two-hitter into the eighth inning.

But Kenta Maeda had held the Blue Jays’ bats in check, taking a two-hitter of his own into the seventh without having allowed a run. In that seventh inning, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. led off with a single and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went deep behind him to give the Jays a 2-1 lead, and it appeared as though Shoemaker’s incredible work would be rewarded.

Not so much.

Shoemaker gave up a double to Miguel Sano to begin the eighth inning, and an out later, Eddie Rosario singled him to third. That was it for the righty, and the call went to Sam Gaviglio, since he had been nearly perfect to that point in the simulation, while set-up man Anthony Bass was still trying to work his way back into the good graces after back-to-back blown saves the week before.

Byron Buxton hit a ground ball to shortstop. With the infield back, Bo Bichette couldn’t come home to try to cut down the run at the plate, and with Buxton’s speed, there was no double play to turn. Tie game. Arraez and Polanco then singled to bring in Buxton and put the Twins back on top.

The Blue Jays tried to rally, loading the bases with one out in the bottom of the eighth, but Sergio Romo came on to strike out Gurriel and get Teoscar Hernandez to fly out (Guerrero had come out of the game in the top of the inning after hurting himself going into the dugout chasing a foul pop-up).

In the ninth, the Jays put men on first and second with two out, but Taylor Rogers struck out Joe Panik to preserve a 3-2 Twins win.

The Blue Jays tried to stave off a sweep in the series finale, but Minnesota got all it would need in the first inning off Chase Anderson, who allowed an Arraez double to begin the game, then after a strikeout, hit Cruz and gave up a single to Donaldson to load the bases. Anderson followed that up by walking in a run and then allowing a sacrifice fly to Sano. The Twins had two, the Jays would get only one. That run would come in the fifth, when Brandon Drury’s ground out scored a Panik triple.

Minny added on later with two-run homers by Jake Cave and Max Kepler and a solo shot by Donaldson, who went 3-for-11 with four walks in the series. The Twins swept away the Blue Jays with a 7-1 win, and now it was time to hit the road.

After a day off, the Blue Jays checked into St. Pete to begin a three-city road trip that would also take them through Boston and Baltimore, and it started with high drama.

Trent Thornton was magnificent, going 7 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run, but again, suffered for a lack of offensive support. A Hernandez homer in the second put the Jays on top early, but the Rays got that back as a Guerrero error loaded the bases with one out in the third. Ji-Man Choi followed with an RBI fielder’s choice ground ball to tie it up.

It stayed 1-1 until the sixth, when the Blue Jays caught a break as Bichette singled and moved up on a passed ball by Mike Zunino. He was able to score easily on a Gurriel single, but the Blue Jays had runners on the corners with one out and couldn’t add on.

Still, they handed a one-run lead to the always-reliable Ken Giles in the bottom of the ninth, and he got two quick outs before drilling Kevin Kiermaier with a pitch. Zunino was up next and, with the game on the line, he found the gap in left-centre for a double that easily scored the Rays’ speedy centrefielder to tie the game. A blown save for Giles was his first of the simulation, but the team’s fourth so far.

In the eleventh, Jonathan Davis (who had come in for defence to protect that one-run lead in the ninth) led off with a single off the Rays’ sixth reliever of the game, Jalen Beeks. He went to second on a Reese McGuire single and to third on a Tellez fielder’s choice ground ball. Next was Grichuk, who hit a fly ball to centre. Kiermaier caught it, Davis tagged and just beat the throw to put the Blue Jays on top.

Gaviglio came out of the ‘pen, seeking redemption, and found it (temporarily) with a perfect frame to seal the 3-2 win.

With Hyun-Jin Ryu taking the ball for the middle game of the series, the Blue Jays were in a great position to take the series, and the lefty delivered. Ryu threw a complete-game three-hitter, allowing just one run, walking only one and striking out ten. It was a magnificent performance, but you can’t win if you don’t score, and the Blue Jays didn’t.

While Ryu was twirling his gem, Ryan Yarbrough, Nick Anderson and Jose Alvarado were also combining on a three-hitter, and the Blue Jays never managed to get a runner past second base. Their best chance to score was in the seventh, when Gurriel knocked Yarbrough out of the game with a leadoff double. But Anderson came on to strike out Guerrero, get Hernandez on a routine fly and Jansen on a comebacker.

It was the third time in Ryu’s five starts so far this season in which the Blue Jays were shut out, and his second 1-0 loss. The Blue Jays are averaging one run of support for Ryu in his starts, which makes it not much of a surprise that he’s 1-4 to start his Blue Jays career, despite an ERA of 2.31.

The finale featured an old-fashioned Sunday line-up, with the entire bench of Davis, Derek Fisher, Drury and McGuire getting starts. After all, the regulars hadn’t done anything to earn playing time, with the team having scored three runs or fewer in six of the last seven games.

And it worked! At the beginning, anyway.

The Blue Jays pounced on Blake Snell for four runs in the second inning – matching their single-game high over the previous nine outings.

The inning started with Choi booting a Fisher grounder, but the bats took it from there. Tellez delivered a two-run homer and a few batters later, Panik drove in a pair with a double.

Roark was shaky again, as after being granted the four-spot he immediately gave one back on a Willy Adames RBI double, then loaded the bases in the second before popping up Austin Meadows to get out of it.

After the Blue Jays added a run in the fourth on a Panik triple, Roark allowed an unearned run in the bottom of the inning after a Guerrero error, as Meadows doubled in that runner. The Rays would again load the bases, but Hunter Renfroe grounded out to get Roark out of another jam. In his four innings of work, he faced 23 hitters, 11 of whom reached base, but he allowed just the two runs and turned it over to the bullpen.

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After the Panik triple, the Blue Jays would manage just one more hit the rest of the way. Not so for the Rays.

It was still 5-2 Toronto into the bottom of the seventh, when Gaviglio took over for Shun Yamaguchi, who had provided two scoreless innings of relief.

Gaviglio struck out the first two batters he faced, then everything came off the rails.

Adames doubled. Jose Martinez pinch-hit for Manuel Margot and singled to score Adames. Michael Perez doubled in Martinez to make it a one-run game and Gaviglio walked Brandon Lowe then gave way to Bass.

Bass gave up a single to Meadows that tied the game – his third blown save – then walked Yandy Diaz to load the bases before getting Choi on a comebacker. Six-straight Rays reached base, all with two out, to tie the game.

The Blue Jays couldn’t do anything in the eighth and stranded a two-out Biggio double in the ninth.

Wilmer Font came on to face the bottom of the Rays’ order in the bottom of the ninth, with Giles (who had only one day of rest after having thrown two innings) being held back in case the Jays took the lead in extras. And after all, it was the bottom of the order, right? Well, Kiermaier and Perez hit back-to-back doubles and that was that. Rays win 6-5 to take the series, and the Blue Jays fall to 8-14 on the simulation after a 1-5 week. This week – three each at Fenway and Camden Yards!

Each game is being simulated on the day it was supposed to have been played – follow along every day on Twitter @wilnerness590 to “watch” the simulated season!

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