PHOENIX – As the GM meetings get going in the desert, let’s review for a minute something Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos said on the final day of the 2014 season.
Speaking with reporters about the year that was, the first question was about what had happened and he replied by looking forward as much as back, a tactic used to deliver his pre-planned message.
“I’m pretty excited about this off-season,” he said Sept. 28. “It’s probably the first time I’ve said it, as much because there’s going to need to be some turnover in certain areas, but we’re going to have some flexibility just because we had a set roster coming into (2014), whether it was guys who were coming back, guys who were under contract.
“As much as it seems like we’ve got some looming free agents, and we do, or some guys with options, and those decisions need to be made, there’s also an opportunity to add some players and to have some turnover with some guys that I think are going to continue to take a step forward. It can be really exciting.”
Well, word that the Blue Jays will meet with representatives for free agent slugger Pablo Sandoval this week at the Arizona Biltmore certainly has the potential to be exciting for a fan-base uneasy after a season of promise fell apart, and ticket prices were raised for 2015.
Adding Sandoval makes sense on multiple fronts for the Blue Jays, providing them with a switch-hitting slugger to split the right-handed power duo of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, stabilizing the infield with a third baseman that shifts Brett Lawrie over to second base, and creating the offensive depth lacking at times last year.
If needed, Sandoval can shift to first base or DH at the back end of his contract.
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Now, before fans rush out and start buying Panda jerseys, a meeting guarantees nothing. A winning bid for the longtime San Francisco Giants star is probably in the $100-million, five-year range, and the defending World Series champions and the Boston Red Sox are both believed to be in hot and heavy for him.
Still, that the Blue Jays are at least travelling this path while still trying to re-sign Melky Cabrera raises some interesting questions as to how much money Anthopoulos has to work with this winter.
The Blue Jays spent roughly $140 million on payroll last year, so let’s use that number as a baseline for 2015. Right now, they have $101.2 million committed to 10 players, one of whom is Ricky Romero, and the projected salaries for their eight arbitration-eligible players could add up to $19 million to the total.
Of that $19 million, $9.1 million is all but assured of being on the team (Brett Cecil $2.6 million, Marco Estrada $4.7 million, Brett Lawrie $1.8 million) while up to $10.2 million (Justin Smoak $2.75 million, Juan Francisco $2.2 million, John Mayberry Jr., $1.9 million, Danny Valencia $1.7 million, Andy Dirks $1.63 million) could be cleared to create more salary space.
Factor in that J.A. Happ has drawn trade interest and another $6.7 million could come off the books while also creating an opening for Aaron Sanchez in the rotation. Anthopoulos could free up nearly $40 million to fill out the second half of his roster based on a payroll of $140 million.
Of course if the Blue Jays payroll is, say, $150 million – club president Paul Beeston said in general terms on Sportsnet The FAN 590 last month that it will go up – Anthopoulos could have up to $50 million to spend.
Under such a scenario, the Blue Jays could spend about $30 million in 2015 on Sandoval and Cabrera while filling out the rest of the roster.
And they could also backload contracts for Sandoval and Cabrera, as they only guaranteed contract on the books for 2016 and beyond is Jose Reyes at $22 million a year.
Should the options on Bautista, Encarnacion and Dickey be exercised for 2016, the Blue Jays would have $58 million on the books, which would still allow them to absorb some backloading.
Regardless of what happens, the big difference between the Blue Jays this winter and last winter – when Anthopoulos was maxed out in payroll and couldn’t create any wiggle room to make moves – is that they have some real possibilities.
That should be exciting.
