Each week Blue Jays Confidential will ask a panel of Sportsnet Blue Jays Insiders and personalities to weigh in on issues big and small with the team, and around Major League Baseball.
1. We’re sure by now you’ve read Shi’s feature on Rickey Henderson and the lost art of the steal. We hear a lot about how all sports are cyclical. With that in mind, do you think the stolen base could someday make a comeback? Or in our data-driven times can we all but kiss good-bye one of the most exciting plays in baseball?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair):
I remember Marquis Grissom coming out of an arbitration hearing upset because he’d been told that stolen bases were “overrated.” This was back when it mattered. Unless there’s an economic incentive, no chance it will become a predominant part of the game again. None.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling):
If teams start compensating players for stealing bases, players will steal bases again. But since 2013 no one has more steals than Billy Hamilton, and he was non-tended this winter. Players do what gets them paid. Right now, OPS gets you paid. So, players swing to hit the ball really hard and really far, and try to draw walks. Funny how strikeouts have increased as well, isn’t it?
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi):
I don’t think the stolen base will entirely disappear but I also don’t see a major resurgence either. For a number of reasons. Data-based decision-making is definitely a factor, but so too is the game’s inability to draft and develop players with both sufficient athleticism and the ability to get on base. Too often you get guys like Billy Hamilton, Mallex Smith, Jarrod Dyson or Terrance Gore, total speed demons who don’t get on base enough to really leverage their legs.
Even if they could, you’ll still have managers with analytics staffers in their ears whispering about run-expectancy models in deciding whether to let them run wild or not. So my guess, barring another freak of nature like Henderson emerging, is to see teams steal at levels similar to where they are now.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith):
Let’s hope not. Stolen base attempts are incredibly fun to watch. As with so much in baseball, a lot of this comes down to numbers. Teams will steal if they believe it helps them win. Long gone are the days when Babe Ruth would steal 17 bases but get caught 21 times, and understandably so. If scoring drops off enough, teams would be more incentivized to roster speedsters and steal more bases. In the meantime, we’re looking at some high-efficiency Carlos Beltran types but fewer attempts overall.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590):
For sure baseball is cyclical, like every sport, but math isn’t, and it’s math that says that a guy who steals 100 bases but gets thrown out 60 times is actually damaging his team’s chances. But we’re not likely to stay in this era of big power forever, especially with Commissioner Rob Manfred looking at changes that will increase “balls in play” and therefore cut down on home runs. The less likely a home run, the more valuable a stolen base, so we could see a comeback. I just doubt it’ll ever look like the Rickey Henderson/Vince Coleman days again. Of course, maybe speed is the new market inefficiency and some “outside the box” general manager will throw together a team of burners, run wild and see what happens!
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2. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are now following each other again on Instagram. Stroman hosted a team dinner Monday night. He’s also off to a great start on the mound. Given Stroman’s recent history, how happy do you think the Blue Jays front office is with what they’ve seen from him on and off the field in 2019?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair):
Thrilled. They don’t have to convince the team that will acquire him that he’s a good clubhouse citizen.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling):
I’ve always believed everyone should be most concerned with how Stroman’s performing on the field, and the early 2019 returns are certainly encouraging. His results are great, fastball velocity’s strong, and he’s striking out nearly a batter an inning. The increased strikeouts are thanks to Stroman throwing his breaking pitches with far more frequency, and it’ll be interesting to see if he reverts to his sinker-heavy approach as the season wears on in order to generate more groundballs. Regardless, if he keeps pitching anywhere near as well as he has been, he’ll almost certainly be wearing a different team’s uniform come August.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi):
Because he’s a lightning rod, the background noise around Stroman gets more attention than it would or should otherwise. What really matters is how the dude is pitching. And he’s been very solid thus far, and if he keeps it up, his value will continue to return to previous levels. That’s what counts for the Blue Jays, who should consider extending one if not both right-handers, lest they spend the next several years trying to recreate them.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith):
This is the best-case scenario. By all indications, Stroman’s getting along well with his teammates, and it’s undeniable that he’s performing on the field. If you’re Ross Atkins, this is exactly how you’d hope to see Stroman’s first couple of weeks go.
But does this change the long-term outlook for Stroman and the Blue Jays? I don’t think so. If he keeps pitching like this, a summer trade still seems likely.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590):
I would hope they don’t get too hung up in the soap opera stuff, but it’s human nature to keep an eye on it. For me, it’s not about what Stroman says on Twitter or whether he’s nice to reporters or anything like that. As far as the Blue Jays are concerned, it’s about what he does on the field and whether he’s a problem in the clubhouse. “Breaking up” with Aaron Sanchez isn’t something that would have caused a rift in the clubhouse, since there are 23 other people in there and there wasn’t a “Team Marcus” and a “Team Aaron” that were at odds with one another. It’s nice that they appear to be friends again, for sure, but more importantly they’re both healthy and producing.
3.Yes, it’s still early, but the 2019 Blue Jays’ offence has been tough to watch. In your time covering baseball, what’s more difficult to watch/cover on a day-to-day basis: A team that can’t hit, or one that can’t pitch?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair):
The game doesn’t start until the pitcher throws the ball. Not even close. Crappy pitching makes bad baseball take longer to play.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling):
A team that can’t pitch because the games are longer. When you can’t hit, the innings are quick. Seven of Toronto’s first 12 games have been 2 hours, 46 minutes or under. I’ll take as much of that as you’ve got.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi):
I’ve covered my fair share of both, some seasons at the same time. Really, trying to choose between bad pitching or bad hitting is like picking between a kick in the face or punch in the nards. There’s no right answer. You just have to grin and bear it, either way.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith):
I’ll take the team that can’t hit, especially with a first-year manager around. I’m intrigued by Charlie Montoyo’s managing style and you don’t learn much about a manager in blowouts. If the games are relatively close, we’ll get a better sense of Montoyo’s in-game tendencies.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590):
A team that can’t hit, for sure. When an offense is struggling, everything looks flat and it can get boring, which is never fun. When a team can’t pitch, at least there are baseballs flying all over the place on a regular basis.
4. Most of the narratives around the 2019 Blue Jays — at least early on — are negative. To flip the script, what/who has been the most positive development around this team early on in 2019?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair):
Ken Giles’ velocity. It’s made him more tradable … or, if you’re an optimist, more retainable.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling):
It’s a tie between Freddy Galvis and Matt Shoemaker. Galvis entered the season with an 80 career OPS+ but here he is leading the team in extra-base hits. I shudder to consider what the Blue Jays offence would look like without him to this point — he’s the only hitter who’s put up consistently competitive plate appearances over these first dozen games. Plus, he’s played great defence and provided leadership on a young team. Shoemaker’s obviously been unreal with some really encouraging strikeout and walk numbers. What he’s doing now is unsustainable, and he’s probably benefitting a bit from facing a lot of hitters who’ve never seen him. But if he can continue to pitch effectively when he encounters a good team like Boston a second and third time — assuming he remains healthy, of course — his signing will look like a stroke of genius, particularly considering the Blue Jays control him in 2020 as well.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi):
I can watch Freddy Galvis pick balls at short all day. That’s a really underrated add. Stroman and Sanchez have been good. Matt Shoemaker is a real pro with a good combination of brains and guts. I like the way Trent Thornton doesn’t mess around and gets after guys. Danny Jansen’s throwing is vastly improved and his receiving of a tough staff to catch is much better. Randal Grichuk plays a solid centre field.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith):
On a human level, it’s pretty cool seeing Charlie Montoyo get the chance to manage at the MLB level for the first time. Montoyo seems genuinely happy to be here after grinding in the minors for a long time then helping the Rays for years as a big-league coach. From a more analytical standpoint, the best development for this team has to be Marcus Stroman’s performance. The better he pitches, the higher his summer trade value goes…
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590):
The pitching staff has been incredible. The top four starters – Stroman, Sanchez, Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thornton – have combined for an ERA of 1.65, which is just silly. And if you take out Sean Reid-Foley’s four-run (two earned, two unearned) inning against Detroit on March 31, the Blue Jays’ team ERA would be second in the major leagues through the first two weeks of the season.
Thornton set a club record with eight strikeouts in his big-league debut, and seven more his next time out to brake Roy Halladay’s team mark for most strikeouts through the first two games of his major-league career. If he turns out to really be something, what a find that would be.
5.With Clay Buchholz scheduled to start for the Jays on Saturday, how many starts do you think the front office would be happy to get from him in 2019 given his injury history and $3 million salary?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair):
Twenty starts would be his second-highest number over a five-year span. So I’d say 19-21.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling):
However many he can pitch effectively in between now and July 31. Let’s say 16.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi):
If they get something in the neighbourhood of 15 starts and 100 innings, they’d should be doing cartwheels, especially given that they paid $10 million for 74.1 innings of 5.93-ERA ball from Jaime Garcia last year.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith):
Pretty sure nobody’s counting on 25 starts from Buchholz even though he reached that threshold earlier in his career. More realistically, we look to last year when he made 16 starts last year while posting an impressive 2.01 ERA. Even that’s probably asking for a lot, though. I think anything more than 10 solid starts and the Blue Jays would have to be happy here. More than that and the Blue Jays would likely consider it a bonus.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590):
Last year, Buchholz made just 16 starts for Arizona. I think the Blue Jays are looking for more than that from the veteran righty. About two or three more. That would get him a regular turn in the starting rotation from Saturday until just before the July 31 trade deadline, at which point they’d love it if they could flip him for young talent that would hopefully line up with the first wave of youngsters that includes Jansen, Gurriel, Alford, Tellez, Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio, Borucki, Thornton and Pearson.
They’ll be very careful with him, though. As Buchholz himself says, he’s only about a 90-pitch guy now, so the kid gloves will be on, and rare will be the start where he’ll see him pitch the seventh inning.
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6. With Guerrero Jr. now just one-step away from the majors — barring injury and assuming Vlad-esque production with the Bisons — what is your best guesstimate for the date of his Blue Jays debut?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair):
April 26 vs. Athletics. First home run will be off Marco Estrada.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling):
If he’s healthy and performing at the standard he’s set for himself, he should be called up the moment he can no longer accrue enough days to qualify for a full year of major-league service. But assuming he takes a little time to get his feet back under him after sitting out with the oblique injury, I’ll say Tuesday, April 30 in Anaheim where his old man played.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi):
As of Friday, any service-time considerations will elapse, so the promotion will depend on how quickly Guerrero finds his rhythm. The Blue Jays don’t want to rush him up and force him to both find his timing and acclimate to the majors at the same time, so they’re going to want to see him hot at Buffalo. Is a week and a half enough? Maybe, so my guess is April 23 at home against San Francisco in Kevin Pillar’s return would be the earliest possible date. From then on, it would all depend on how locked in he is at the plate.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith):
April 23 vs. San Francisco Giants.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590):
Man, are the Bisons not going to be happy if they only get two home dates with Vlad, Jr. on the team, but it’s a definite possibility. I’m not sure he needs more than two weeks at Triple-A, so I wonder if his debut won’t come on April 23, when Kevin Pillar and the Giants visit. Maybe they’ll want to start him on the road, though, which makes April 30 in Anaheim more likely.
But why debut your prized prospect in the middle of the night? Let’s split the difference and say April 26, home to Oakland. They can announce it after the game on Wednesday afternoon and build momentum through the off-day.
