Blue Jays Confidential asks a panel of Sportsnet Blue Jays analysts to weigh in on issues big and small with the team, and around Major League Baseball.
This week, Shi Davidi wonders about the Blue Jays’ rotation and the ongoing sign-stealing scandal while asking for some bold predictions for 2020.
1. The off-season adds of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi, along with the return of Matt Shoemaker, have set up a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation between Yamaguchi, Ryan Borucki and Trent Thornton, who led the team in innings last year. As things stand now, who do you prefer at five, and what do you do with Thornton if Borucki wins out?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair)
Borucki. I’d start transitioning Thornton into a relief role, with an eye toward having him replace Ken Giles as a late-inning option. Not sure I’d want him wasting away in triple-A. If he’s not good enough to start for me a year after starting all season, I’d rather not waste the year.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi)
Both Borucki, who missed all but two starts last year with elbow issues, and Thornton, the only Jays starter to go wire-to-wire last year, have good reason to think the job should be theirs. Fair or not, however, my sense right now is that barring injuries, Yamaguchi opens the season at five. This is partly about options, partly about maintaining depth and partly about giving Yamaguchi a real look as a starter before moving him to the bullpen. If he doesn’t open the season in the rotation, it will be hard for the Jays to yo-yo him between roles, so the optimal time to give him the opportunity is right out of the gate. If he struggles, bullpen it is, opening a spot for one of the other two. Should Thornton not end up in the rotation, it probably makes sense to let him start at Buffalo until opportunity arises, since it’s probably too early to cut him off as a starter with a move to the bullpen (where he could turn into a multi-inning weapon).
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Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith)
One year after posting a 2.78 ERA in Japan, Shun Yamaguchi will arrive at spring training with a chance to earn a rotation spot. I’m intrigued by him in that role, so I’ll say he breaks camp as a starter. Health-permitting, that would leave Thornton and Borucki on the outside looking in. In a way it’s unfair to Thornton, who held his own with a 4.84 ERA in 29 starts last year, but injuries will inevitably create an opportunity for him and others.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590)
Given the way he performed as a rookie in 2018, and since he was slated to be the Jays’ No. 2 starter going into last season, I’m inclined to say Borucki would be the preferred guy. But it’s not that easy to come back after missing a whole season (Borucki made two starts in 2019), and we’ve learned with Aaron Sanchez and others that even if a guy is healthy, it takes a while to regain form after missing extensive time. That’s going to happen with Matt Shoemaker as well this year (only five starts in 2019), so it might be better to have Thornton in the rotation – especially with the gains he made in September thanks to the Buchholz curveball – than to have two guys trying to bounce back after a missed season. If Thornton isn’t in the rotation, he should be starting every five days in Buffalo, knowing a spot will open up for him in the big leagues sooner than later. Thornton could eventually become a very good bullpen piece, but the time to close the door on him as a starter hasn’t nearly arrived yet, and with Ken Giles, Yamaguchi, Anthony Bass and Jordan Romano, the Jays should have a very strong back of the bullpen.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling)
I prefer Nate Pearson, who I think is the second-best pitcher in the organization after Ryu. But we all know how that goes. If Borucki earns the job, I’d keep Thornton stretched out for depth at triple-A. He’d be called upon before long when someone inevitably gets hurt or underperforms, or the bullpen gets blown up in a couple of long games. But the smart money’s probably on someone getting hurt during spring training, making the entire competition moot.
2. It looks like the Blue Jays are intent on playing out Ken Giles’ pending free agency until the trade deadline, at least, which is a risky proposition because if he gets hurt or underperforms, the value on the asset drops to zero. How would you approach this year with the closer?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair)
I would have already had a conversation with him about a multi-year contract. But if it’s been resolved that there isn’t a desire on either/both sides to do something then I’d start the season with him and seek to move him well ahead of the trade deadline, hoping that offering him to a needy team early in the season increases what I’d get in return.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi)
I explored the Blue Jays’ options with Giles back in October and they appear to have chosen the riskiest path forward. To be fair, the internal equation has changed for them over the winter, given that they now actually have a major-league calibre rotation for 2020, setting up a slight possibility for fringe contention should several things break right. Having Giles around to lock down games under such a scenario makes sense and gives the Blue Jays opportunity to ride things out to the deadline, and make their best call then. Relievers typically return more at that point anyway. But they’re also risking a Josh Donaldson 2018 value-crash here if Giles’ elbow issues of 2019 resurface. A qualifying offer to ensure some return still feels unlikely, even if the San Francisco Giants successfully extended one to Will Smith this winter and collected a compensatory draft pick when the Atlanta Braves signed the lefty closer as a free agent.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith)
I’d start by at least exploring the idea of an extension, since Giles really is talented and enjoys playing in Toronto. But at this point, Giles might be a year away from replicating Will Smith’s three-year, $39-million deal, so a team-friendly contract might be hard to come by. If no bargains are available, that’s fine. Let the season play out. From spring training onward, I’d tell Charlie Montoyo and Pete Walker not to use Giles three days in a row under any circumstances. The club should even be cautious with back-to-back outings considering that Giles tended to require significant rest when he pitched consecutive days last year (14 days off after back-to-back outings June 5, 12 days off after three straight outings July 2-4, six days off after back-to-back outings August 31-September 1). Otherwise, you make sure Giles has all the resources he needs to stay healthy and hope for the best.
If the Blue Jays are out of it at the end of July and he’s pitching at an all-star level, you have an easy call: trade him as long as you’re getting offers that exceed the value of the compensatory pick the Blue Jays would get if he signs elsewhere. If he’s pitching well and the Blue Jays are contending, they should still listen to offers just in case someone’s willing to overpay.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590)
The Blue Jays are most likely not ready to make the playoffs yet, but at the same time, they might be contenders if a few things go right, so they’ve smartly put themselves in position to be able to take advantage of an unexpected early surge by bringing in Ryu (maybe a year early, but that’s a good thing) and solid starters in Anderson and Roark. Part of being in that position is holding onto Giles, even though it might wind up costing them. If Giles is the same dominant guy he’s been since the Blue Jays got him in July of 2018, and the team isn’t in the running for the post-season, they can try to move him at the deadline, but they’re running the risk of another season in which they spend two months coming to the ballpark not knowing whether Giles will be able to pitch that day, something that completely submarined his trade value last season. But it’s nice to see them taking that risk, knowing that if the team is unexpectedly contending this season, they’ll do so with an established ace and a big-time closer, instead of having to say “we could have made the playoffs if only…”
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling)
You utilize him as you normally would. There’s probably no need for him to pitch in three consecutive games like he did last July when his elbow problems exacerbated. But you’ll still want to show prospective deadline buyers he can pitch effectively on back-to-back days.
3. From former Astros to the Astros themselves, the dominant story from the winter was the electronic sign-stealing scandal, the fallout of which is only beginning, rather than ending. How do you see this impacting what happens on the field this season?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair)
Other than the Astros leading the league in HBP? I’m not certain there will be any other impact once the season starts. My guess is by the time that Tony Clark and the players association start their spring training tours, everybody will be singing from the same page. Questions will still be asked and I really think that eventually the commissioner will need to do a Mitchell Report thing. But other than that … nah.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi)
Not sure I’m buying the whole open season on Astros hitters theory that’s floating around, but a sport that allowed sign-stealing concerns to almost paralyze play on the field, at times, is only going to be even more suspicious now. That’s bad, and the impact on the pace of play and how catchers and pitchers communicate will be a major issue all summer as a result, whether or not wild ideas such as headsets or other modes of transmitting signs are implemented.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith)
The magnitude of the suspensions handed out so far should act as a strong deterrent to digital sign stealing, so I imagine we see less of that in 2020. But then we never really knew that was going on in real-time, only after the fact. So our viewing experience will be pretty similar, except we may now be more inclined to look for evidence of illegal sign stealing. I imagine teams will be similarly suspicious, especially when facing the likes of Houston and Boston. And fans will surely come up with creative (and deserving) ways to chirp the Astros.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590)
It sort of feels to me as though, despite some condemnations from Blue Jays players at Winterfest a couple of weeks ago, fans and journalists are more upset about the scandal than the players are. I don’t know that we’ll see any on-field retribution toward Astros players. It’s funny, I think it’s almost more likely that Mike Fiers gets drilled if he comes to bat in an inter-league game, since I’ve seen more players angry with him for exposing the cheating than with the actual cheaters. On the field, it’ll be very interesting to watch the Astros’ hitters. Will Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer et al. still be elite-level offensive players? Is Yordan Alvarez the real deal? (Even though the sign-stealing was supposedly limited to 2017 only, does anyone really believe that?) Will Altuve allow his shirt to be torn off in celebration?
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling)
I don’t see it impacting much on-field. Players across the league have long been on high alert for sign stealing, utilizing various counter-measures to prevent it. I’d expect that to continue.
4. This past free-agent season was markedly different from past years, with even non-traditional spenders like the Blue Jays jumping into the fray. Given that we entered the winter talking about labour strife and player discontentment with how the previous two markets are playing out, what’s your sense of where things stand now?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair)
I’m pretty certain none of the traditionally reluctant free-agent buyers decided to jump in because it would contribute to labour peace. Rob Manfred is a smart guy and he’ll remember how the commissioner’s office and players association decided during the steroid crisis that they needed to be partners instead of adversaries. We’re in another crisis period for the game, and with issues surrounding proprietary information and legalized gambling also on the horizon – not to mention pace of play and electronic strike zone – I think it’s natural that both sides see the benefit of lowering the heat.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi)
The relationship between players and owners remains deeply troubled and the current mistrust doesn’t bode well for looming negotiations on the next CBA. But this off-season very critically eased some of the simmering anger among players and their agents as the spigots re-opened on free-agent spending, with teams not known for anteing up making money moves. The bigger question is whether this off-season was a substantive shift or an outlier to the trend of the past three winters, one driven by a handful of elite top-tier talents and the number of teams motivated to add impactful starting pitching. The thinner free-agent class next winter will be a more meaningful indicator of whether the competitive spending of the past is back, or if baseball will resume its era of open-market austerity after a one-winter hiatus.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith)
Early in the off-season, the dynamic between owners and players seemed as strained as I’ve ever seen it. There appeared to be little trust between the two sides and at times they seemed to be bracing for the kind of conflict baseball has avoided for decades.
Then, MLB teams started spending again. They agreed to record-setting contracts, signed superstars and role players alike and did so early in the off-season, just like they used to. That activity helps, no doubt about it, but at the same time, the tension that existed a few months ago didn’t just disappear.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590)
I think it’s better, but still not good. It’s great that the market is moving, and it’s outstanding that players aren’t getting put out to pasture simply because they’re over 30 (good for Josh Donaldson for getting his dough), but there’s still that pay gap where players at their most productive are still waiting to make big money, and where players are having their service time manipulated to keep them cheaper longer. Also, the fact that the Boston Red Sox believe it’s better for them to trade Mookie Betts for prospects, when they’re a viable playoff contender with him, means the system is broken. Winning should be incentivized, it should always be better to sneak into the playoffs than to miss them, and right now the system doesn’t work that way.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling)
I still believe we’re heading for a work stoppage when the current CBA expires. It’s definitely refreshing that this winter was marked by unexpected spending rather than sabre-rattling from the union and owners. But the game’s still trending younger and younger, and players still need to fight to be compensated more fairly earlier in their careers.
5. Spring training hasn’t even started yet, but it’s never too early for some unwisely bold predictions for the upcoming campaign. So, what’s your entirely premature, hottest hot take heading in 2020?
Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair)
Premature hot take? Hyun-Jin Ryu pitches just 130 innings and the Tampa Bay-Montreal split-season concept is agreed to by the end of the season, with an eye toward 2022.
Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi)
This may be the dumbest thing I say all year, but what the hell: Los Angeles Angels, American League West champions.
Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith)
The Nationals aren’t a great team anymore. The old roster and patchwork bullpen worked so well last fall, but if you’re expecting a repeat in 2020, prepare for disappointment.
Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590)
I’m not sure that this is a super-hot hot take, but how about the Cincinnati Reds will win the NL Central in 2020? They’ve had six straight seasons of 86 losses or more, with two fourth- and four last-place finishes in the division, but they’re an also-ran that has spent the last two winters improving, eschewing the tank, trying to win. Adding Wade Miley, Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos this winter after bringing in Sonny Gray last winter as well as Trevor Bauer and Freddy Galvis during the season, they’ve put themselves in a very good spot to make a big jump in the standings. Oh, and also the Pittsburgh Pirates might lose 120 games.
Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be an all-star and receive MVP votes.
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