Blue Jays don’t need repeat from Estrada for contract to be justified

MLB insider Jeff Blair talks about why it was a no-brainer for Marco Estrada to re-sign in Toronto, and explains why the two year deal allows for some statistical regression.

TORONTO – Marco Estrada intends to build on the success of his 2015 season by arriving at spring training with the same approach that got him this far.

“I want to keep proving that I can pitch here,” Estrada said at Rogers Centre Tuesday after finalizing a two-year, $26-million contract. “I’m going to have the same mentality. I’m going to act like I’m a rookie and have a lot to prove, because that just makes me work harder and want it more. My mentality isn’t going to change one bit.”

Estrada didn’t make Toronto’s opening day rotation, but he became one of the team’s most effective starters late in the season thanks to a swing-and-miss change-up and a willingness to buck convention and throw his 89 mph fastball up in the strike zone. During the regular season the right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA in a career-best 181 innings and the success continued in October, when he started three playoff games, posting a 2.36 ERA in 19.1 innings.

Locking him up was a priority for interim GM Tony LaCava.

“Marco was a huge part of our success last year,” LaCava said. “He performed great and was a great teammate. He exemplifies everything we’re looking for in a Blue Jays player. He earned this contract.”

Estrada says he’s hoping for even better results in 2016, but even if he takes a step back the Blue Jays will be fine. They’re paying him around the level of mid-rotation starters such as Scott Feldman, Jason Hammel and Jake Peavy. Providing steady innings will be enough to justify the contract. Sustaining or surpassing his 2015 performance would be a bonus.

Estrada led the American League with a batting average on balls in play of .216, so some regression seems likely even if fly ball pitchers often limit hits effectively. The Blue Jays acknowledge that the 32-year-old’s 3.13 ERA will be tough to replicate, but their analytics team looked closely at his performance and determined it’s largely sustainable thanks to his ability to elevate and mix in his change-up and cutter effectively.

“We think that he can maintain that level of performance — maybe not to the level that he did this year — but certainly someone that we can count on going forward,” LaCava told reporters Friday.

Estrada arrived in Toronto after leading the National League in home runs allowed, yet he still thrived at Rogers Centre.

“I just changed my mentality,” Estrada explained. “Not that I stopped caring, but I stopped worrying about giving up home runs. It’s all people ever talk about and I’ve never cared until it was put into my head: you give up a lot of home runs. Then I just kept telling myself if you give up a home run and it’s a one-run homer, who cares? If that’s all you do in a game it’s a pretty good game.”

Soon after the season the Blue Jays made Estrada a $15.8-million qualifying offer, linking him to draft pick compensation. Once he obtained the offer, he felt he was in a win-win situation.

“Either way it was going to be a huge jump in pay,” Estrada said. “Obviously I wanted the years. I would have taken probably less (per year) for more years, but it’s the way things worked out. Two years is plenty. They did a great job. I think it’s an extremely fair offer.”

The Blue Jays were Estrada’s top choice, as difficult as that would have been to imagine a year ago this time. He lives in Arizona, so getting traded to a team that spends Spring Training in Florida was less than ideal. Gradually, Estrada and his family grew to enjoy Toronto.

“As the year went on I fell in love with the city and the team and everybody here and I knew it was the place I wanted to be,” Estrada said. “That means the world, knowing that they liked it as much as I did here. It was an easy decision to stay.”

If he can provide the Blue Jays with two more seasons of steady innings, they’ll be glad he did.

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